Board Game Arena

I've been playing quite a bit of FS these days, and I've noticed that winter cards have been coming out at the very start of the last period far beyond what one should expect in my games. Let me explain.

I've played enough to realize that the game puts all the winter cards in the last 49 cards in a two player game. In other words, the first time you can see a winter card there will then be 48 cards left in the deck. Therefore the chance that the first card will be a winter card will be 3 in 49, or about 6%. The chance the next card will be a winter card is then 2 out of 48 (about 2.1%). The chances that both of the first two cards will be winter cards is 1 in 392.

In my experience, the incidence of the first card being a winter is much, much higher than 6%, and the incidence of the first two cards being winter cards is much, much higher than 1 in 392. I've played about 190 games, so the average would be that I've seen the first two cards be winter cards abot 0.5 times - in fact, I've seen it many times. It's even happened in two out of my last three games:

https://boardgamearena.com/10/forestshu ... =485563699

https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=488807323

(Note that the first one linked to is an asynch game still ongoing).

What am I missing here? Has anyone else noticed this, or does anyone have an explanation that isn't just 'people misunderstand how often certain events are to occur'?

Let me know and let the gaslighting begi

As a general rule, two winter cards are shuffled into the bottom third of the whole deck in play. Size of this stacks varies, depending on how many cards are in the game to begin with, depending on number on players.

The first of the winter cards IS placed on top of the bottom stack. So the chances this one is the first to draw is 100%.

I also thought the 3 winter cards were shuffled into the bottom third of the deck. This clarification (and I see in the rule book that @reikja is correct) will allow me to let go of my growing irritation with BGA for not randomizing better, and enjoy the game...knowing that 49th card WILL be a Winter Is Coming.