Statistical anomaly on obtaining /!\ ?

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ObiQuiet
Posts: 7
Joined: 24 May 2020, 03:42

Re: Statistical anomaly on obtaining /!\ ?

Post by ObiQuiet » 30 June 2020, 02:07

Where do these stats come from?
As of today, on game statistics, for all players, obtaining /!\ on dices with 1 /!\ are evaluated at 15.49%. For dices with 2 /!\, it's 29.23%.

Fernando Borja
Posts: 3
Joined: 15 June 2020, 21:07

Re: Statistical anomaly on obtaining /!\ ?

Post by Fernando Borja » 02 July 2020, 20:04

In this game there is no randomness on the dice.
Curiously, since I have written ALL the games (except one) I have had an incredible "bad luck".
For me this game is VERY tricky.

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Imay
Posts: 61
Joined: 27 October 2016, 00:23

Re: Statistical anomaly on obtaining /!\ ?

Post by Imay » 02 July 2020, 20:26

Do people understand that is MUCH MORE COMPLEX creating a slighlty rigged game than using the common random functions?

If you think dice are rigged and that some IA is reading your post and managing your luck, you may be a bit egocentric. :)

If you can't (under)stand randomness, don't play games with dice.

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ringersoll
Posts: 110
Joined: 25 November 2013, 00:52

Re: Statistical anomaly on obtaining /!\ ?

Post by ringersoll » 02 July 2020, 23:03

If you want to watch an interesting video about randomness, look at this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP-Ipsat90c
People do not do well in predicting random sequences.

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RicardoRix
Posts: 838
Joined: 29 April 2012, 23:43

Re: Statistical anomaly on obtaining /!\ ?

Post by RicardoRix » 03 July 2020, 10:45

I did some analysis on the BGA RNG, 500,000 samples of each function, you can see the results here.

https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewto ... 1&start=10

Fernando Borja
Posts: 3
Joined: 15 June 2020, 21:07

Re: Statistical anomaly on obtaining /!\ ?

Post by Fernando Borja » 04 July 2020, 12:45

If the runs were really random, there would be no problems.
The problem is that they are not. Interestingly, there is always some form of compensation.
In one game, point the red dice and 66.66% came out (thanks to the "randomness" of the last roll, if it hadn't been 77%. And if the game had continued, surely I won't get one more, right?).
Anyway, will I be selfish? Surely yes. If the results I get were the opposite, I would be delighted. It would be No. 1 in the ranking. But the problem would be the same.

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