Heavily disfavoured in recent games

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wrldtrvllr
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Joined: 29 March 2020, 01:05

Heavily disfavoured in recent games

Post by wrldtrvllr » 05 November 2020, 14:12

In the vast majority of the recent games I've played, I seem to be up against players ranked far, far higher than I am, with rankings of 500+ that I am sure used to be quite rare. These players seem to get extraordinary luck, always receiving the tiles they need to block me, and always getting the tile they need on the last move of the game to win. Some of their moves seem to be played with the strong expectation that they will receive a particular piece in the next turn, which they then do.

Am I just being totally paranoid? Just having an unusually bad run of luck? Or has anyone else noticed something similar?

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nmego
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Re: Heavily disfavoured in recent games

Post by nmego » 06 November 2020, 07:29

It could be some sort of statistical analysis, if you're 500+ then I'd expect you pretty much know how many of each tile are in the game. Because it doesn't seem to be that hard to memorize. Then, if there are like a bunch of that tile still left in the bag, then you can expect with higher certainty that you'd receive it in the future.

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frogstar_A
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Re: Heavily disfavoured in recent games

Post by frogstar_A » 07 November 2020, 02:03

nmego wrote:
06 November 2020, 07:29
It could be some sort of statistical analysis, if you're 500+ then I'd expect you pretty much know how many of each tile are in the game. Because it doesn't seem to be that hard to memorize. Then, if there are like a bunch of that tile still left in the bag, then you can expect with higher certainty that you'd receive it in the future.
I agree - Carcassonne is like Scrabble: the longer the game goes on the more a good player will know what's left. Whilst a good player can't control what tile they pick up, they can plan around what tiles are left and create opportunities around them.

Of course there is still luck in what's drawn.

ufm
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Joined: 06 January 2017, 08:38

Re: Heavily disfavoured in recent games

Post by ufm » 07 November 2020, 06:26

frogstar_A wrote:
07 November 2020, 02:03
nmego wrote:
06 November 2020, 07:29
It could be some sort of statistical analysis, if you're 500+ then I'd expect you pretty much know how many of each tile are in the game. Because it doesn't seem to be that hard to memorize. Then, if there are like a bunch of that tile still left in the bag, then you can expect with higher certainty that you'd receive it in the future.
I agree - Carcassonne is like Scrabble: the longer the game goes on the more a good player will know what's left. Whilst a good player can't control what tile they pick up, they can plan around what tiles are left and create opportunities around them.

Of course there is still luck in what's drawn.
Same goes for all the other games with tiles or cards.
That's why casinos implement countermeasures to prevent card counting.

wrldtrvllr
Posts: 6
Joined: 29 March 2020, 01:05

Re: Heavily disfavoured in recent games

Post by wrldtrvllr » 07 November 2020, 10:34

I know what tiles are left - that's easy enough to keep track of. The issue is that recently, my opponents almost invariably draw the tile they need, and I do not get the tile I need. And I am almost invariably playing against players with extremely high rankings that I never used to see in this game. That seems very strange to me.

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frogstar_A
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Re: Heavily disfavoured in recent games

Post by frogstar_A » 07 November 2020, 20:35

wrldtrvllr wrote:
07 November 2020, 10:34
I know what tiles are left - that's easy enough to keep track of. The issue is that recently, my opponents almost invariably draw the tile they need, and I do not get the tile I need. And I am almost invariably playing against players with extremely high rankings that I never used to see in this game. That seems very strange to me.
You usually get more higher ranked players playing early in Arena season as they have to get back to elite again.

But to be honest just sounds like you’ve been unlucky - bound to happen from time to time.

wrldtrvllr
Posts: 6
Joined: 29 March 2020, 01:05

Re: Heavily disfavoured in recent games

Post by wrldtrvllr » 18 November 2020, 06:53

The natural thought is that it's just a run of bad luck but it continues. Very high ranked opponents get the sequences of tiles they need to block me or to prevent me from blocking them. It is almost impossible to win a game now. I do not think it's plausible that my own level of play has suddenly dropped massively, so how come I am suddenly losing 80% of my games? It is very strange.

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