Heavily disfavoured in recent games

[wrldtrvllr]

In the vast majority of the recent games I've played, I seem to be up against players ranked far, far higher than I am, with rankings of 500+ that I am sure used to be quite rare. These players seem to get extraordinary luck, always receiving the tiles they need to block me, and always getting the tile they need on the last move of the game to win. Some of their moves seem to be played with the strong expectation that they will receive a particular piece in the next turn, which they then do.

Am I just being totally paranoid? Just having an unusually bad run of luck? Or has anyone else noticed something similar?

[nmego]

It could be some sort of statistical analysis, if you're 500+ then I'd expect you pretty much know how many of each tile are in the game. Because it doesn't seem to be that hard to memorize. Then, if there are like a bunch of that tile still left in the bag, then you can expect with higher certainty that you'd receive it in the future.

[frogstar_A]

It could be some sort of statistical analysis, if you're 500+ then I'd expect you pretty much know how many of each tile are in the game. Because it doesn't seem to be that hard to memorize. Then, if there are like a bunch of that tile still left in the bag, then you can expect with higher certainty that you'd receive it in the future.

I agree - Carcassonne is like Scrabble: the longer the game goes on the more a good player will know what's left. Whilst a good player can't control what tile they pick up, they can plan around what tiles are left and create opportunities around them.

Of course there is still luck in what's drawn.

[ufm]

It could be some sort of statistical analysis, if you're 500+ then I'd expect you pretty much know how many of each tile are in the game. Because it doesn't seem to be that hard to memorize. Then, if there are like a bunch of that tile still left in the bag, then you can expect with higher certainty that you'd receive it in the future.

I agree - Carcassonne is like Scrabble: the longer the game goes on the more a good player will know what's left. Whilst a good player can't control what tile they pick up, they can plan around what tiles are left and create opportunities around them.

Of course there is still luck in what's drawn.

Same goes for all the other games with tiles or cards.
That's why casinos implement countermeasures to prevent card counting.

[wrldtrvllr]

I know what tiles are left - that's easy enough to keep track of. The issue is that recently, my opponents almost invariably draw the tile they need, and I do not get the tile I need. And I am almost invariably playing against players with extremely high rankings that I never used to see in this game. That seems very strange to me.

[frogstar_A]

I know what tiles are left - that's easy enough to keep track of. The issue is that recently, my opponents almost invariably draw the tile they need, and I do not get the tile I need. And I am almost invariably playing against players with extremely high rankings that I never used to see in this game. That seems very strange to me.

You usually get more higher ranked players playing early in Arena season as they have to get back to elite again.

But to be honest just sounds like you’ve been unlucky - bound to happen from time to time.

[wrldtrvllr]

The natural thought is that it's just a run of bad luck but it continues. Very high ranked opponents get the sequences of tiles they need to block me or to prevent me from blocking them. It is almost impossible to win a game now. I do not think it's plausible that my own level of play has suddenly dropped massively, so how come I am suddenly losing 80% of my games? It is very strange.

[ReblScum]

It seems to me you have answered your own question.

a. you're playing people ranked well above you.
b. they're beating you soundly.
c. your playing level hasn't likely changed.

When players are playing well above your skill level, it can be hard to understand what they're doing that you're not.
But years ago, when I played at an elite level (top .5%) average players invariably remarked at my "good luck."

It was sort of frustrating.

[Beuf de Beuf]

Ik bespeur de laatste tijd een zelfde ontwikkeling. Ik beschouw mezelf als redelijk ervaren, ik ken alle kaartjes uit mijn hoofd en schat de kans in op bepaalde kaartjes voor ik iets leg.
Maar de laatste tijd zie ik vaak dat als er van een bepaald kaartje bijvoorbeeld nog 6 kaartjes zijn, alle 6 naar mijn tegenstander gaan. Dit is statistisch schier onmogelijk. Ik begrijp geluk en ook veel geluk, maar dit kan statistisch niet.
Weet iemand hoe de kaartjes 'verdeeld' worden? Welk algoritme zit daarachter?

[Tisaac]

Ik bespeur de laatste tijd een zelfde ontwikkeling. Ik beschouw mezelf als redelijk ervaren, ik ken alle kaartjes uit mijn hoofd en schat de kans in op bepaalde kaartjes voor ik iets leg.
Maar de laatste tijd zie ik vaak dat als er van een bepaald kaartje bijvoorbeeld nog 6 kaartjes zijn, alle 6 naar mijn tegenstander gaan. Dit is statistisch schier onmogelijk. Ik begrijp geluk en ook veel geluk, maar dit kan statistisch niet.
Weet iemand hoe de kaartjes 'verdeeld' worden? Welk algoritme zit daarachter?

That was already asked and answered over and over. If you want to believe the algorithm is rigged, go ahead, but please complain here only with statistical data, otherwise you will just get the same answer about the fact that human are bad at understanding randomness.