this game is super rigged

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CaractacusPots
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Joined: 31 August 2020, 18:08

Re: this game is super rigged

Post by CaractacusPots » 11 September 2020, 01:41

frogstar_A wrote:
05 September 2020, 23:55
I've played hundreds of games of Can't Stop and Yahtzee on this site and seen literally absolutely nothing that suggests there is anything rigged at all.
Really?

Here's a thing. To roll a 6 on a standard die is a 1 in 6 chance. But because of the laws of averages and deviations we know that you should regularly expect to roll the die maybe 10-15 times AND NOT see a 6 come up. That would be quite natural.

In Can't Stop when you are on the 6,7,8 columns there are only 104 dice throws out of a possible 1296 that will block you. That means you have approx a 1 in 12 chance of being blocked. By the same expectations of averages then you should regularly expect to be able to make up to 20 dice throws without getting a bad blocking roll when on the 6,7,8 columns yet you never can. So yes, it's definitely squiffy imho. Plus the number of times you progress well up the 6,7,8 columns before opponents have made any column and the system then constantly doesn't let you back onto the 6,7,8s is just farcical imho. They are the most common dice throw combos so you should be able to get back on 6,7,8 most times, but the system just deals you junk until the others catch up. Over and over and over.

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Jest Phulin
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Re: this game is super rigged

Post by Jest Phulin » 11 September 2020, 03:37

CaractacusPots wrote:
11 September 2020, 01:41

In Can't Stop when you are on the 6,7,8 columns there are only 104 dice throws out of a possible 1296 that will block you. That means you have approx a 1 in 12 chance of being blocked. By the same expectations of averages then you should regularly expect to be able to make up to 20 dice throws without getting a bad blocking roll when on the 6,7,8 columns yet you never can.
There are 1192 out of 1296 possible ways to get at least a 6, 7, or 8. Giving a (rounded up) 91.98% success rate for each roll. But that means an 84% success rate for 2 rolls, 78% chance for 3... By the time you hit the 9th roll, you have less than a 50% chance of having succeeded. 20 rolls is less than a 20% chance.

Now, while 20% may qualify as "regularly", it doesn't factor in that most people will not get to see this happen, because of the risk vs rewards nature of Can't Stop. While many would most likely risk 3 or 4 advancement spaces on an 8% failure rate, many will not risk 15 advancement spaces for a gain of only one more, so there are more stops than 20 consecutive advancements. In fact, in your last game that you had an opportunity to advance on 6/7/8, (table 111558427) you chose to stop after just 9 rolls.


edit---
CaractacusPots wrote:
11 September 2020, 01:41
Here's a thing. To roll a 6 on a standard die is a 1 in 6 chance. But because of the laws of averages and deviations we know that you should regularly expect to roll the die maybe 10-15 times AND NOT see a 6 come up.
Please narrow down what "regularly" means. 10 consecutive non-6 rolls happens about 15% of the time. 15 non-6 rolls is down to 6%. So I guess your 20% does qualify, but still doesn't factor in the aspects of the game vs pure dice rolling.

wrldtrvllr
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Re: this game is super rigged

Post by wrldtrvllr » 19 September 2020, 12:36

I'm no longer convinced that this game is truly random, because in my own games, for some time now, the odds have seemed to be overwhelmingly against me. I observe the following:
  • My opponent gets a yahtzee in the majority of games; I rarely get one
  • My opponent starts with a yahtzee or a long straight about half the time; I seldom start with either (recently I had three consecutive opponents starting with a yahtzee, something that should happen only once in about 10,000 games)
  • In games where I do get a yahtzee, my opponent almost always gets one before I do
  • If I find myself needing one or two of a number in my final throws, I generally do not get it.
  • If my opponent needs something unlikely like a long straight or a yahtzee on their final move, there is a high chance that they will get it
All of these observations seem to me to defy probability. It seems to me that the only explanations are either a) the game is not truly random (though why it should disfavour me so strongly, I do not know), or b) The game results are not as uneven as I perceive them to be.

Is there any way to download one's game results easily to scrutinise them?

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Jest Phulin
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Re: this game is super rigged

Post by Jest Phulin » 19 September 2020, 15:04

wrldtrvllr wrote:
19 September 2020, 12:36
Is there any way to download one's game results easily to scrutinise them?
Easy? No. But if you go to your games history page (profile -> click on a game -> statistics ) you can replay any game. Yahtzee is actually one of the better replays, in that it lists the die rolls in the log so you just need to download those.

wrldtrvllr wrote:
19 September 2020, 12:36
It seems to me that the only explanations are either a) the game is not truly random (though why it should disfavour me so strongly, I do not know), or b) The game results are not as uneven as I perceive them to be.
I'm willing to bet on b), especially since you recognize that the only way a) makes sense is if this site has something against you personally. :)

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Giordano Bruno 1974
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Re: this game is super rigged

Post by Giordano Bruno 1974 » 19 September 2020, 15:26

It always amazes me how few people think games are rigged in their favour.

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whatshisbucket
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Re: this game is super rigged

Post by whatshisbucket » 19 September 2020, 19:53

wrldtrvllr wrote:
19 September 2020, 12:36
I'm no longer convinced that this game is truly random, because in my own games, for some time now, the odds have seemed to be overwhelmingly against me. I observe the following:
  • My opponent gets a yahtzee in the majority of games; I rarely get one
  • My opponent starts with a yahtzee or a long straight about half the time; I seldom start with either (recently I had three consecutive opponents starting with a yahtzee, something that should happen only once in about 10,000 games)
  • In games where I do get a yahtzee, my opponent almost always gets one before I do
  • If I find myself needing one or two of a number in my final throws, I generally do not get it.
  • If my opponent needs something unlikely like a long straight or a yahtzee on their final move, there is a high chance that they will get it
All of these observations seem to me to defy probability. It seems to me that the only explanations are either a) the game is not truly random (though why it should disfavour me so strongly, I do not know), or b) The game results are not as uneven as I perceive them to be.

Is there any way to download one's game results easily to scrutinise them?
Sounds like a player skill issue

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Jest Phulin
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Joined: 08 July 2013, 21:50

Re: this game is super rigged

Post by Jest Phulin » 19 September 2020, 21:36

Giordano Bruno 1974 wrote:
19 September 2020, 15:26
It always amazes me how few people think games are rigged in their favour.
Of course, people who think things are rigged for them don't come to to the forums and point it out. The typical Black Lives Matter rally isn't predominately made up of white males.

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Giordano Bruno 1974
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Re: this game is super rigged

Post by Giordano Bruno 1974 » 19 September 2020, 23:01

Jest Phulin wrote:
19 September 2020, 21:36
Giordano Bruno 1974 wrote:
19 September 2020, 15:26
It always amazes me how few people think games are rigged in their favour.
Of course, people who think things are rigged for them don't come to to the forums and point it out. The typical Black Lives Matter rally isn't predominately made up of white males.
Actually they are made up of predominantly white people. But that's rather off topic.

wrldtrvllr
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Joined: 29 March 2020, 01:05

Re: this game is super rigged

Post by wrldtrvllr » 20 September 2020, 09:36

whatshisbucket wrote:
19 September 2020, 19:53
Sounds like a player skill issue
Haha. You must have a comprehension issue then.

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DrKarotte
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Re: this game is super rigged

Post by DrKarotte » 20 September 2020, 17:43

If it would be some kind of app where you play against AI - ok, that would worth to observe. But here on BGA: Why should there be something in the code which causes the game to favor your opponents? It is strange to even think about that.

Another thing is the gereral quality of the random generator.

If someone has played about 2300 games and has won 51 percent of them, I would say that this is something one might expect.

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