"dubious" luck

Forum rules
Please DO NOT POST BUGS on this forum. Please report (and vote) bugs on : https://boardgamearena.com/#!bugs
User avatar
N_Faker
Posts: 514
Joined: 09 September 2016, 10:16

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by N_Faker » 09 March 2020, 06:48

Ze Monstah wrote:
08 March 2020, 23:17
To replay all games and to name people who might not want to be named (or who I cannot even remember exactly) and so on... I rest my case. I will not go see and replay 75 games just to make my case in front of you, if this is what you are asking.

If I was to think now, i think 50% of the times i got 6-6s were right after being taken out. And some times, i see the enemies have 6-6s first after i take them out, as well. Don't know to give you a username or replay a game right now!
Ze Monstah wrote:
09 March 2020, 05:13
Game 66200757 or whatever... being taken out, 2 6-6s one after the other.
Game 66201586... enemy gets taken out, i have 6 and 5 spaces filled in my home. He gets 6-5 then 6-6, one after the other.
Beware, some trees may block your view of the forest.

User avatar
Ze Monstah
Posts: 12
Joined: 10 October 2019, 08:08

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Ze Monstah » 09 March 2020, 07:12

What a touchy and helpful comment...
Anyway last game (66203720) taken out, enemy has 3 spaces occupied in his home, among which are 3 and 6. I get 2 6-3s then the obvious 6-6.

User avatar
Jest Phulin
Posts: 960
Joined: 08 July 2013, 21:50

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Jest Phulin » 09 March 2020, 10:21

Ze Monstah wrote:
08 March 2020, 23:17
You could have also said where this has been discussed so many times before here, when i see my post being the only one about it...
https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewto ... 2&start=10
https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewto ... 69&t=14399
https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewto ... 12&t=13966
https://boardgamearena.com/faq?anchor=f ... ing_random

The one in the Developers forum is especially interesting, as it is a developer stating that something looks wrong. They are then presented with independent ways of verifying the randomness, and do not come back and say those tests failed.

Oh, and of course https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=hu ... i=scholart

As far as your examples: You list 3 blots. What about the other 4 blots in game 3720, the 6 in 3544, the other 9 in 1568, the 8 in 1233, the 8 in 1105, and the other 11 in 757? As well as the other 7 games you played in the same hour as those? Averaging 8 blots a game (the average of the games you played from 757 to 3720), this should be about 105 blots. So, 3 occurrences is the 1:36 expected with true randomness.

User avatar
Ze Monstah
Posts: 12
Joined: 10 October 2019, 08:08

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Ze Monstah » 09 March 2020, 14:13

The links you posted are not really easy to find for a person who is not as passionate as you. I only opened 1st. and saw some Puerto Rico stuff.

You know... if you were nicer i would give you my password so you could check for yourself deeper, since it seems you have a lot of time... Maybe you could give the proof you say I need.

As for those 3 examples, i found them really relevant, since I don't want to look deeper.
And you use numbers in that way to seem more organic, i think. There were not so many blots taken out (by blot i understand a single piece, vulnerable).

6 of the blots in last night that were taken out, had 6-6 immediately or until getting back in, after being taken out. Those 3 were only 3 examples (2 of which had recurring 6-6), and i think they were enough needed for 10 games or so (in my poor mind). One more time, the enemy had 6-6 after taking her/him out, but my 6 space was empty so i didn't give it as an example.

I think you are too passionate about this and I only wanted to see if perhaps I am paranoid. And I think I am not entirely.

As for you, good luck in life and good luck with the fragile egos, also.

User avatar
Ze Monstah
Posts: 12
Joined: 10 October 2019, 08:08

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Ze Monstah » 09 March 2020, 14:49

Nevermind the password. Apparently anyone can replay any game.

User avatar
Ze Monstah
Posts: 12
Joined: 10 October 2019, 08:08

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Ze Monstah » 09 March 2020, 16:26

It happened again... 1 time in 2 games. 6-6 after being taken out.
Again, now. 66230936

User avatar
Jest Phulin
Posts: 960
Joined: 08 July 2013, 21:50

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Jest Phulin » 09 March 2020, 19:14

Ze Monstah wrote:
09 March 2020, 14:13
As for those 3 examples, i found them really relevant, since I don't want to look deeper.
[snip]
... I only wanted to see if perhaps I am paranoid. And I think I am not entirely.
You are still using only examples that fit your preconceived notion of what is wrong with the random number generator on this site. Between your stated results on games 66230936 and 66203720, you have 8 other games played. I'm assuming that these didn't have any episodes, otherwise you would have included them. Even if you remove the games that were not played in your latest Backgammon gaming session, there are still 6 games played within about an hour. This is hardly "1 time in 2 games."

https://www.healthline.com/health/paranoia defines paranoia as an irrational suspicion or mistrust. If the random number generator is indeed flawed, it would not be an irrational suspicion; rather it would be easily demonstrable and quite rational. I have provided a method to prove it. If you don't want to take the effort to prove it yourself, you can hardly expect others to believe your claims.

User avatar
Ze Monstah
Posts: 12
Joined: 10 October 2019, 08:08

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Ze Monstah » 09 March 2020, 20:09

Wow, I didn't notice i was talking to Freud's descendant, sorry :-))))
Thanks for the link...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmund_Freud

You can do this statistics thing for me, again, cause you have more time, and saving lives is more important to me than this BS. Again, I only wanted other people's opinions regarding this, and my original post was a question ("have you noticed"), and not a statement ("this algorithm is stupid just cause i say so"). I wanted opinions, not having an extremely unpleasant chat with a possibly arrogant player with who i cannot come into agreement about anything! ;)

I don't know what 8 games you're talking about. I was talking about the last 6 games in the last hours, before i went to sleep, so please... We may not have communicated well enough because of the language barrier and because you are so... almighty.

I think the numbers of 6-6s and the way the doubles go for the winner in the games I win/lose, are proof enough for me, and if you want to think nothing is wrong, in your way of thinking, no problem for me.

When I started answering your novel-ish replies, I didn't know people can replay my games, otherwise I would have simply avoided any feud. You can do it yourself, for the reasons mentioned above.

And I included the times i considered relevant, and IN WHICH MY BLOTS WERE TAKEN OUT, and when I posted this I wasn't particularly expecting your attention. Last 5 games/6, i won them, and rarely got taken out. I included 2 relevant episodes, though, of blots taken out before getting 6-6, apart from other "debatably" lucky numbers.

Bless (and back off)!
Last edited by Ze Monstah on 09 March 2020, 23:37, edited 4 times in total.

User avatar
Een
Posts: 2448
Joined: 16 June 2010, 19:52

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Een » 09 March 2020, 20:25

I think this is a case of "do not feed the troll". Thanks for trying though Jest, you made perfect sense.

Bless! :)

User avatar
Ze Monstah
Posts: 12
Joined: 10 October 2019, 08:08

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Ze Monstah » 09 March 2020, 20:35

Yeah, I am a troll cause I cordially posted something started with "Am i the only one who noticed... ?", " sorry if i offend anyone" and so on, only for then escalating like that ("poor human mind" and all that BS).

Whatever dude, I don't care enough to get into a serious argument with you or other BGA admin or whatever.

I just think the number algorithm has issues, in the BG game and wanted to see other opinions, only for then getting into the unnecessary chat with your dear Jest Phulin.

And what a shock one of BGA admins agrees with the one who stands up for their platform. Of course he makes perfect sense... :-))))
But unfortunately, we both contributed to your wonderful platform, from the Premium point of view ;)

Thanks for calling me a Troll and good day. Bless, Een...

Post Reply

Return to “Backgammon”