Luck vs. skill

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hervepa
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Joined: 28 March 2020, 03:08

Luck vs. skill

Post by hervepa » 03 May 2020, 20:58

Whoever did the little write-up on backgammon on BGA is rather unknowledgable about the game.


they rated luck as 4, strategy as 2

Should be more like strategy 5, luck 2, or 3 at most

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ReelMcKoy
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Joined: 17 October 2018, 20:31

Re: Luck vs. skill

Post by ReelMcKoy » 11 May 2020, 20:41

I think I agree with hervepa on this. Although it can often feel like a simple matter of lucky rolls, it is clear there is a great deal of strategy and skill involved. And for this reason we see the very best players often win. (but the luck still gives a starting player a chance against the best players)

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euklid314
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Joined: 06 April 2020, 22:56

Re: Luck vs. skill

Post by euklid314 » 19 May 2020, 08:57

Since there is no doubling cube on BGA I would suggest the rating "luck 4, strategy 4".

There is tons of strategy and on the long run you will prevail with better play.

But for a single game luck is very (!) important. Compare it with chess: After 1 months, when you have got a basic grip on the tactics you will win 0 out of 100 games against the world champion. After 1 months, when you have got a basic grip on the tactics you will win at least 10 games out of 100 against the world champion (or against XG). It took me a very short time to win approx 30% of the games against XG (that plays better than any human).

The reason is that luck often wins you a game even with suboptimal play. Actually that is one very attractive part of the game!
However: As you try to master the game on a higher level you have to accept the fact that you will often lose a game even with better play. If you cannot accept this fact, the game of backgammon is not yours. :-)

Only in the long run the strategy will give you the reward you might deserve...

Baricuda
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Joined: 01 September 2021, 13:46

Re: Luck vs. skill

Post by Baricuda » 01 September 2021, 13:52

If you’re rolling dice or dealing cards then luck is still a dominant factor with skill only influencing outcomes ranges. Get two Ai of the same code base and level to play itself and you will see how dice are rolled or cards are dealt will determine the game. Exception are games like poker where it becomes more psychological than about cards etc .

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Romain672
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Re: Luck vs. skill

Post by Romain672 » 03 September 2021, 21:08

Let me do my way to see the luck part of the game: the highest elo.
So as usual, a game like Yahtzee is around 350, an high skilled game at around 800.

And backgammon is at... 550.

The point is not to decide if a game is about luck or strategy, the point is to give a good idea of how much you can win a game with perfect strategy against a player who put X hours in the game.

I don't believe the strategy of a simple game should ever goes to 4 or 5 (prove me wrong ty, would be really curious about a game of complexity 2 which got 4 in strategy :D).
If I take Hanabi which can have virtually infinite strategy, it's writed at 3, which look fine because most of the strategy can come in some really rare spots.
I'm not playing much high strategy game, but imo, that's mainly a game where, even if you are good in strategy, at first glance, you will have no idea what is the good thing to do. On games like Hanabi or Backgammon, you can totally have a good grasp of what seem good.


edit: Okay I just find one: https://boardgamearena.com/gamepanel?game=thecrew . But meh :(

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dschingis27
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Joined: 27 June 2015, 18:30

Re: Luck vs. skill

Post by dschingis27 » 03 September 2021, 21:53

Romain672 wrote:
03 September 2021, 21:08
And backgammon is at... 550.
I don't think that Elo of the highest rated player is a good measure, especially for short games with a lot of luck. There is just a lot of cheating going on or at least some way to abuse the system is often applied. More often than not you will find the highest rated player conducting some "strategy" in boosting Elo. But ok, let's assume that there is no cheating - even then the highest rated player will often have had a large streak of luck and it is highly unlikely that the high rating can be sustained when playing regularly.

Much more reliable to look at average Elo of roughly 11th to 20th rated players. But even this can be misleading..
Romain672 wrote:
03 September 2021, 21:08
I don't believe the strategy of a simple game should ever goes to 4 or 5 (prove me wrong ty, would be really curious about a game of complexity 2 which got 4 in strategy :D).
I would say that many abstract games fall into this category of low complexity and high strategy. Take Go for example. But of course it depends on how you define complexity.

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dschingis27
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Joined: 27 June 2015, 18:30

Re: Luck vs. skill

Post by dschingis27 » 03 September 2021, 21:59

This is a really good source on the topic:
http://freerangestats.info/blog/2016/03/19/elo-pr-luck

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