cheating system if you do not pay

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frogstar_A
Posts: 371
Joined: 30 April 2020, 00:41

Re: cheating system if you do not pay

Post by frogstar_A »

JustJeff wrote: 23 February 2022, 05:25 Without a doubt a pay to win site. Premium members get "lucky" rolls and draws constantly against non-premies.
Without a doubt that isn't true.

As others have stated look at the Arena leagues - plenty of people high up the table in luck based games who are non premium. Surely they didn't get there by just never getting matched against premium opponents.
vahasn7
Posts: 1
Joined: 13 January 2024, 07:00

Re: cheating system if you do not pay

Post by vahasn7 »

It is definitely a pay to win website. i mainly play catan. i have been observing the in-game rolls for a little more than a 100 games. now whenever i play, i could almost always guess the next dice roll (1 or 2 numbers). it so happened that in a few games, i was predicting the rolls to the shock of other non-premium players who have hysterically laughed and joined me in the guessing game. the premium member got annoyed, of course.

i have devised a personal strategy to beat this. but i am unable to make use of it all the time cos getting the correct first settlement numbers is very crucial "w.r.t." the settlement numbers of the premium member. it means, even when the game begins i know that i have definitely lost the game or i have a chance to win.

also, the way the roll machine helps the premium member is unbelievable. its deeply programmed within. when a roll churning hex is blocked by robber, bga immediately churns out a 7 to release it. block it again, another crucial premium number starts rolling.

yet, i have figured out a few ways to confuse the system and fool it to roll my hex numbers. those ways depend on the board and placements.
i am not going to list those ways here. if you look carefully at each game you play, you will devise those methods yourself.

to other premium players who are constantly wondering why their win rate is bad despite the pay-to-win system...

its not about winning. its about getting insanely ridiculous rolls on your hex numbers. its up to you to use it properly or waste it. also, if you have made bad first settlements and got your roads cut off, nothing can save you. yet, you will see the rolling system sadly churning out your numbers and giving you 7s and so on to help you. its quite dramatic to watch it. like a broken vending machine. if you are genuinely a good player, you will be formidable being premium. if there are multiple premium players, the system helps all of them and by the end of the game, chooses one favourite among them who generally strategises better.

to my fellow gamers.... i value your opinions as long as they are devoid of sarcasm. i have a major in mathematics and have been a senior AAA game programmer. that doesn't mean anything big about me. its just that i know probability theory and game programming well enough to give lectures on them. also, i am playing catan for the last 20 years. i also have played in unofficial online catan sea3d community long ago which had 80000 members at its peak in mid 2000s. so i know the game well enough to know whats random and whats in-built.

there is nothing wrong to be a pay to win website. how else would companies make money? having worked in the game industry, i know that. but the situation is sad. to be publicly honest is bad for businesses of this kind. still, i commend the programmers in bga who have made such a seemingly random system which changes the rolls based on the premium members' situation. its both annoying and also quite impressive.

you may ask.

why dont i leave the website?
i like the graphics and interface here. its the closest to the old sea3d client and also the real board. other websites dont have such good graphics and simple interface.

why dont i pay?
i play only catan. not interested in other board games. i have no direct benefits from a premium membership. i can wait for a game. also, if i pay and see a very good non-premium player struggle against my rolls, i would feel utterly guilty. not victorious. that's seal clubbing.

start with these questions if you wish to see how deep the rabbit hole goes.
how many at the top 100 arena winners are non-premium players?
how many of your last 100 games were won by non-premium players?

then dive in. ;-)

thanks for reading.
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Romain672
Posts: 1014
Joined: 05 April 2016, 13:53

Re: cheating system if you do not pay

Post by Romain672 »

vahasn7 wrote: 24 March 2024, 06:07
If you aren't a troll...

Many of the players defending the system should have less experience than you, but still know enough to second guess themselves if something is wrong.
I just believe you was lucky / was hit by confirmation biais. (most likely a combinaison of the two)

Just start again from scratch to try to guess the numbers without cheating, do it 100 times, and then share the results (and note the numbers guessed (and the fails). Guessing a 7 is less surprising than guessing a 12).
vahasn7 wrote: 24 March 2024, 06:07how many at the top 100 arena winners are non-premium players?
how many of your last 100 games were won by non-premium players?
Maybe because those who are prenium are those who are more invested/who plays more?
Maybe because they can start a game more easily? So can play more.
Can more easily specialise in one particular setting (included number of players)?
Jegpeg
Posts: 16
Joined: 05 October 2021, 19:41

Re: cheating system if you do not pay

Post by Jegpeg »

As you have a maths major do it properly set up a null hypothesis (e.g. Premiums roll a 7 on 1/6th of their rolls) and a null hypothesis (they roll more than that). DEcide which rolls will be included in the trial (e.g the next 300 rolls by preiums in games you are involved in).
Post here (or in Catan) the details of your experiment before you start and then post the results along with the confidence level of rejected the null hypothesis.

Accusing hte site of cheating is a pretty strong claim but if you can reject the null hypothesis with 99% certainty I would suggest you repeat the test possibly with more trials. If you reject it at 99.99% confident I think you have made your case.
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Jellby
Posts: 1350
Joined: 31 December 2013, 12:22

Re: cheating system if you do not pay

Post by Jellby »

If people want to pay to win inconsequential games in some website, they're welcome to do it, and if BGA wants to take advantage of it (which I don't believe), kudos for them.
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