double

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euklid314
Posts: 292
Joined: 06 April 2020, 22:56

Re: double

Post by euklid314 »

veggivet wrote: 14 August 2022, 16:41 Thanks for those responses. Very helpful. I won't this idea any further. Does anyone else who reads these backgammon threads think that there are more 'boxcars' (double 6 rolls) in the situation I described than chance would account for? Would appreciate any feedback.
I try to explain why the double 6-miss against a one-point-board (i.e. exactly one of the 6 entering spots is blocked) seems to occur that frequently.

*) First, please note that a one-point-board has always the 6 blocked and never another number. That is because of the starting position that has 5 checkers on the 6-spot. It is "always" a very bad playing style to move all of these 5 checkers forward onto another single spot. You will find it very difficult to show me even one game on the whole of BGA that has e.g. the 5-point blocked but all the other points (1,2,3,4,6) are open. Such a situation does usually not occur in the opening or in the middle game and only very, very(!) rarely in the end game (when one player has moved off almost all his checkers and has only his 1-point blocked and the other player still has a checker on the bar and has to enter against a 1-point-board on the 1).

Thus, missing an entry against a one-point-board always happens with a double 6 and never with a double 5, 4, 3, 2 or 1. This makes the miss so special and noteworthy since you will never miss with a double-5 against a one-point-board. Additionally, many players are emotionally attached to their double 6s and are shocked if they cannot use this "ideal" roll. So people won´t forget such situations and expect to see them (confirmation bias). Sometimes I believe that most players don´t realize that a double 1 is a better roll than a double 6 in about 50% of all backgammon positions.

*) Second, please note that in quite many games the state of a one-point-board is kept till far into the middle game - sometimes even both of the players keep their one-point-home boards for a long time. So there are many more situations that you try to enter against a one-point-board than you might think. If you succeed (in 35/36 cases) you don´t even bother because you assume it is normal - a wrong thought!

As an experiment: Just take your next 10 backgammon games (or your last 10 games) and count how often you or your opponent have a checker on the bar and try to enter against a one-point-board. I would not be surprised if the number exceeds 36 (depending on playing style). In this case you expect to see a double-6-miss in every 10 games, i.e. every 1-2 hours if you play some fast paced games in a row.
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dagose
Posts: 3
Joined: 20 April 2020, 14:00

Re: double

Post by dagose »

What's missing is the ability to double! Before each turn, a player should be able to choose to double and not just see the result of the dice roll.
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