Some probabilities about the castles of Burgundy

[see you soon]

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These two graphs represent the corresponding relationship between the dice and the cost of workers, and expectation can be understood as an average data.
e.g.let x=1,we can know that when we need 1 and 4, it will cost about 1.9 workers,and when we need 1 or 4, it will cost about 0.44 workers.

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total remaining means the number of the desired tiles left in the black market deck.
demand means means the number of the desired tiles that will appear in E.
e.g.On board 6, we want to know how many boats will appear in E. Through the situation on the field, we can know that 4 boats have appeared in the black market, so there are 2 boats left in the black market.We can know from the table that the probability of a boat or more appearing in the black market in E is 31.16％.
This table is very helpful for some boards, such as No.1,No.6, No.8,we will want to know the probability of animals or boats appearing in E, sometimes we can also use it to check the occurrence of yellow probability(for No.3) or else.The 1st player may be more interested in whether or not there will be one, and the 2nd player may be more interested in whether two or more will appear.

p.s The black market has a total of: 8 animals, 16 buildings (2 of each kind), 2 mines, 2 castles, 6 ships,6 yellow ties.
(You can see which tiles are black market by toggling the first version,they have a black dot.)

[see you soon]

Discussed this with pistol star, he calculated parts of it, I added some, and made these spreadsheets,hope will be useful!

[Palapapa]

Thank you for sharing this useful knowledge.

I was looking exactly for this after facing a situation where none of the 6 animals left in black market came in round E. I thought I was very unlucky but after calculating myself, I realized the probability of missing is quite high. Then I was looking for probabilities in all scenarii. I was lazy to calculate myself and not 100% sure of my calculations as my math skills are rusty. (my result is the same as yours so I assume we are both right and that all your calculations are correct).

Thanks again. The more I play this game, the deeper the strategy looks.

[-Legionnaire-]

Very useful data! Thank you!

[kiauc]

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