the algorithm of luck

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Vogliovincere
Posts: 23
Joined: 04 October 2022, 16:51

the algorithm of luck

Post by Vogliovincere »

Mi sono iscritto con piacere a BGA mesi fa. Ho iniziato a giocare a Scopa, il mio gioco preferito. Gioco a Scopa da quando sono nato, posso dire che ho prima imparato a giocare a scopa e poi a parlare… all’inizio c’era qualche problema relativo alle regole, che per fortuna è stato corretto grazie a un mio suggerimento, molto votato.
Ultimamente non mi sta piacendo più giocare a scopa su BGA. Ho rilevato che esiste un algoritmo che indirizza la fortuna.
Molto probabilmente ogni nuovo utente che inizia a giocare si vede assegnato un coefficiente di fortuna più elevato, e probabilmente ne ho goduto anche io, non so.
Tuttavia nella vita reale solitamente vinco 3 partite su 4, pertanto non mi era strano rilevare che anche su BGA ne vincevo circa 3 su 4. Ultimamente però, in un periodo di osservazione abbastanza ampio, contro ogni logica, contro la matematica, contro la statistica, sto perdendo 7 partite su 10, più o meno.
Siccome non posso essere diventato scarso di colpo, siccome su altre piattaforme e nella vita reale la mia percentuale di vittorie resta tranquillamente sopra il 70%, mi sono risposto che su BGA deve esserci un algoritmo che ultimamente mi penalizza. Ho pensato all’algoritmo che favorisce i nuovi utenti, poi ho pensato anche al pollice verso. Forse il pollice verso in qualche modo abbassa il coefficiente di fortuna di chi lo riceve? Ognuno di noi su BGA ha la possibilità di dare un pollice verso a un altro utente, in modo da abbassare il rating di tale utente, col risultato anche di non giocarci più contro. In un mondo perfetto, si darebbe il pollice verso in presenza di validi motivi. Nulla vieta su BGA di dare pollice verso semplicemente perché quel giocatore ti è antipatico, oppure perché vince troppo spesso e non vuoi più giocarci contro, soprattutto se vuoi vincere l’Arena. Tali comportamenti non sono etici, ma purtroppo accadono. Ho perso l’Arena all’ultimo minuto proprio per un comportamento estremamente scorretto dell’attuale campione in carica. Nonostante molte evidenze dell’accaduto, nessuno ha deciso di revocare il titolo a chi lo ha vinto con l’inganno. Questo mi è dispiaciuto molto, credo sempre nell’etica sportiva. Mi sarei aspettato da BGA l’analisi della partita incriminata, avrebbero notato lapalissianamente il comportamento scorretto. Sarei stato nuovamente vincitore dell’Arena, dopo aver già vinto la precedente.
Ma torniamo alla questione dell’algoritmo. Un algoritmo che distribuisce la fortuna c’è di sicuro, vorrei solo capire da cosa è governato e indirizzato, se favorisce i nuovi utenti, se penalizza chi ha qualche pollice verso (anche se ricevuto senza motivo o perché non piace perdere). Dico che c’è di sicuro, perché se prendo un mazzo di carte e gioco nella vita reale, ne vinco 3 su 4. E la mia statistica dura da 45 anni, abbastanza lunga da essere sufficientemente credibile e scientifica. Nel corso delle mie ultime partite su BGA mi sono capitate cose assurde, ai limiti dell’irrazionale, come se BGA volesse a tutti i costi farmi perdere, per motivi che non conosco. Forse perché ho insistito nel voler far revocare il titolo di campione a chi lo ha vinto con l’inganno nell’ultima stagione, forse perché conosco troppo bene il gioco della Scopa al punto di insistere nel voler vedere corretti errori nell’applicazione di alcune regole, forse perché qualcuno che ha perso troppe volte contro di me ha deciso di darmi pollice verso pur di non perdere più. Non lo so. Solo BGA e forse Piratjack possono conoscere la verità.
Sono deluso, è frustrante vedere un indirizzamento forzoso della gara verso la mia sconfitta, ogni qualvolta ultimamente io provi a giocare.
Proverò ancora, la Scopa mi piace troppo, ma se le cose restano così, non mi piace perdere il mio tempo, voglio giocare ad armi pari.
Scusate lo sfogo.
Grazie a tutti

I gladly joined BGA months ago. I started playing Scopa, my favorite game. I've been playing Scopa since I was born, I can say that I first learned to play Scopa and then to talk... at the beginning there was some problem related to the rules, which fortunately was corrected thanks to my suggestion, highly voted.
Lately I'm not enjoying playing scopa on BGA anymore. I have detected that there is an algorithm that directs fortune.
Most likely every new user who starts playing is assigned a higher luck coefficient, and I probably enjoyed it too, I don't know.
However, in real life I usually win 3 out of 4 games, so it was not strange for me to notice that I also won about 3 out of 4 on BGA. However, lately, in a fairly long period of observation, against all logic, against mathematics, against statistics, I'm losing 7 games out of 10, more or less.
Since I can't have suddenly become unable, since on other platforms and in real life my win percentage remains easily above 70%, I answered myself that on BGA there must be an algorithm that penalizes me lately. I thought about the algorithm that favors new users, then I also thought about the thumbs down. Maybe the thumbs down somehow lowers the recipient's luck coefficient? Each of us on BGA has the opportunity to give a thumbs down to another user, in order to lower the rating of that user, with the result also of not playing against him anymore. In a perfect world, one would give a thumbs down for good reason. Nothing prevents from giving a thumbs down simply because you dislike that player, or because he wins too often and you don't want to play against him anymore, especially if you want to win the Arena. Such behaviors are unethical, but unfortunately they happen. I lost the previous Arena at the last minute due to extremely incorrect behavior by the current champion. Despite much evidence of what happened, no one has decided to revoke the title of those who won it by deception. I was very sorry for that, I always believe in ethics. I would have expected from BGA the analysis of the game, they would have clearly noticed the incorrect behavior. I would have won the Arena again, after having already won the previous one.
But let's go back to the question of the algorithm. There is an algorithm that distributes luck for sure, I would just like to understand by what it is governed and directed, if it favors new users, if it penalizes those who have a few thumbs down (even if received for no reason or because the givers don't like to lose). I say there is for sure, because if I take a deck of cards and play in real life, I win 3 out of 4. And my statistic has been going on for 45 years, long enough to be believable and scientific enough. During my last games on BGA, absurd things have happened to me, bordering on the irrational, as if BGA wanted to make me lose at all costs, for reasons I don't know. Perhaps because I insisted on having the title of champion revoked from the player who won it by deception in the last season, perhaps because I know the Scopa game too well to the point of insisting on wanting errors corrected in the application of some rules , perhaps because someone who has lost too many times against me has decided to give me a thumbs down in order not to lose again. I do not know. Only BGA and maybe Piratjack can know the truth.
I'm disappointed, it's frustrating to see a forced direction of the match towards my defeat, every time I try to play lately.
I'll try again, I like Scopa too much, but if things stay like this, I don't like wasting my time, I want to play on equal terms.
Excuse the outburst.
Thank you all
matti1896
Posts: 15
Joined: 26 June 2022, 11:59

Re: the algorithm of luck

Post by matti1896 »

L'atteggiamento vittimistico per un gioco in cui la fortuna è parte FONDAMENTALE fa abbastanza ridere. Come ti ho già detto, quello successo a fine scorsa stagione è triste da ogni punto di vista, così come il presunto numero 1 nel ranking ELO, che ha fatto centinaia di partite con account compiacenti (100% win rate e 11/0 come piovesse, senza nemmeno fare finta di nasconderlo), quindi spero solo nel sacro ban.
Per il resto, si tratta di varianza, ogni gioco di fortuna ne è molto colpito, e giocare online velocizzando le partite ed aumentando il numero di giochi fatti, tende a scomparire. Questo non toglie che capitino i momenti NO e i momenti SI. E' equamente insensato vincerne come perderne 10 di fila in un gioco del genere. E parlo con cognizione di causa, visto che qui come in altri giochi come sushi go, lucky numbers ecc passo in mezz'ora da n1 a n500 della classifica.
Fa parte del gioco, anche se fa girare le cosiddette come non so che cosa. Hai comunque fatto praticamente due stagioni di fila senza quasi perdere partite, un momento di varianza negativa era prevedibile, no?
PiratJack
Posts: 17
Joined: 06 August 2021, 08:28

Re: the algorithm of luck

Post by PiratJack »

Hello,


Please note that, even though I'm the developer of the adaptation on BGA, I have not looked into the details of any game that is played.

I can see 4 factors that could contribute to what you think:
- How cards are distributed
- Which players you are facing
- BGA / PiratJack is against you
- Cheating

Card distribution
BGA has developed a module for cards of decks, which has a "shuffle" function which I'm using. It is based on the PHP function "shuffle".
Once the cards are shuffled, they are distributed to each of the players.
Since this shuffle function is used in dozens of BGA games, I don't see how it could be against you. The "shuffle" function also doesn't know which players are in the game - it simply shuffles the cards, then they are distributed to the players (and the deck).

Which players you are facing
On BGA, Scopa has been played more than 85 000 times by more than 14 000 players. It is very likely that the best players are the ones who play the most, which means you're facing better players than the ones you see on average. This is especially true in Arena, where the most competitive players are.
Your ELO ranking also influences which players you meet - having a higher ranking means you have better players in front of you.
Also, more games played on BGA mean more people get better at it, and the overall level raises.
BGA does favor new players, but they do it in other ways:
- They will put beginners with other beginners rather than experts
- People who have played only few games will win more ELO points
- People with a lower ELO score will gain more ELO points if they win against strong players, and less if they win against weak players (this is how ELO works and has been used in many games, including chess, since decades)
- Before you reach 100 ELO, you can't lose ELO points and you can't go in Arena
See here for how ELO is calculated: https://boardgamearena.com/faq?anchor=faq_account_elo
As you can see, none of those elements are related to what happens within the game.

BGA / PiratJack is against you
Let's entertain the idea that either my code or BGA is trying to punish you.
If BGA or I wanted to make you lose games, how would we do it? By giving you bad cards? Which cards are bad in Scopa? It really depends on which variant you're playing. Also, if you always received the same cards, would you not notice it?
Could you please look into your last 10-15 games and look at the cards you got + the ones your opponent gets. If you find something that is not random, please share your results. Then we can investigate if there is a bug or not.
If you prefer, you can review my code or ask BGA to review it. The code is available publicly here: https://github.com/PiratJack/bga-scopa

Now, let's talk about motive: why would BGA or I try to punish you? Because you complained? I can assure you they received dozens of complaints and will continue receiving more in the future. If BGA really wanted to punish you, they could simply ban you from the platform... I don't have that kind of power, but I can assure you I don't want to waste my time to program something that would punish you - and if BGA noticed I did that, I would certainly get banned from here.
Just remember: you're one of the almost 9 million people on the platform, and 14 000 alone on Scopa. Neither BGA nor I don't care enough about you specifically to make you lose games on purpose.

Cheating
It's possible there is cheating in the game. I followed BGA's recommendations to make sure the game is balanced for everyone, but it's possible someone found a loophole. I highly doubt it, especially since BGA has reviewed the code.
This being said, losing games does not mean there is cheating. We need to have proof - for example showing that the cards are not distributed randomly or that players have anticipated your moved - before we can do something.


Regards,

PiratJack
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