Azul Weekly Puzzle #007

[Effgee]

Once again, we're entering the 5th round trailing our opponent....
We do have a column advantage but will it be enough?

puzzle007_censored copy.png (487.23 KiB) Viewed 1420 times

Have fun with this one!

[euklid314]

At the moment of the screenshot we are leading by 7.

We have 25+(7+7)+(2+7+7)-4 = 51 points. Our opponent has 32+5+7 = 44 points.

Since we have no scoring opportunities (except 5 black in row 5 for 1 point) and our bottom row is already partially filled (i.e. discarding the next tiles are -2 each while being only -1 for our opponent), it looks grim.

Taking 1 black (for discard, i.e. -2 points) will lose since our opponent will take the other black for row 2 and 7 points. There are 2 white, 2 yellow and 6 blue in the middle and it is our turn -> we are losing big.

Taking 2 white (for dicard, i.e. -4 points) will also lose since our opponent will take the one black (7 points) that brings all tiles together in the middle. There are 1 black, 2 yellow, 6 blue in the middle and again it is our turn -> we are losing big again.

The best (and only?) plan is certainly to force to opponent to take many blues in the end, optimally all 6, for -11 points. For the moment I am too tired/lazy to calculate that through. Taking 1 yellow from the middle, or 1 blue from the 4th plate seem promising starting points for analysis...

[Effgee]

Great analysis as usual!
Forcing blues down on opponents floor line is our only hope indeed. If we take from factory 3 or 4, opponent has control on who plays last by taking from other factory, and thus avoid all the blues.
We therefore need to take from the middle. Because we want to force blues, our only option is to take the yellow. But is placing the middle one yellow on our third row enough to survive this game?