Arena 'random' scenario selection?

[jeroenh]

I just want to check something with other active players here. I'm getting the sense that the scenario selection for Arena games is not so random.

Recently, I started two turn-based Arena games within a couple of minutes of each other. The resulting games were both the Meat Grinder map. And slightly later, I added another one and that was also a Pacific Theater map.
Last week I did the same, and ended up with two games of "Into the Cauldron".

I seem to remember this happened before, but have not kept records, so I can't prove it. Did anyone else experience too that you get the same or similar maps when you start turn-based games quickly after each other?

[Fleurdelysé]

I personnally play a lot of turn-based arena games, and I do not get Pacific Scenarios at all. (literally none)
On the other end, I played a lot of ''In the Chauldron'' scenario, in a disproportionate way compared to all of the other scenarios.
That, and the fact a lot of those scenarios are like Engagement Blindés, Panzer vs Grants, Omaha Beach, Rivière Roer etc... but that's a personnal disagreement more than anything

[Artimon18]

I have the same feeling that the scenarios proposed are not so random. Quite often, if I launch several games in a short time, BGA is proposing the same scenario for most of the games ...

[RobertBr]

Did anyone else experience too that you get the same or similar maps when you start turn-based games quickly after each other?

That is how randomness works. You simply don't understand what random patterns will look like in terms of individual experience. Its very common not to understand this, most people don't, which is why there is a constant stream of conspiracy theories about the site 'rigging' the dice.

While its possible for the programmers to have screwed something up its unlikely they would not simply be using a random variable to select a scenario from a set (and in all likelihood this is a site feature, but hard to confirm without a developer stepping in).

[Waikirikiri]

I have experienced sequences of Arena games where scenario selection appeared to not to be random.

But I don't have enough data to make a judgement over the randomness of the scenario selection.

It could be that I'm on a "harmonic" that means I get the same of similar scenarios.
I don't know how many Arena games are started between my previous and next selection.

Consider the die rolling - sometimes on can roll all stars, other times all flags, other times all grenades and so on.
That might appear non-random.

The DoW award system had awards for a unit surviving 10 attacks. Odds are low for that but it did happen.

[jeroenh]

Did anyone else experience too that you get the same or similar maps when you start turn-based games quickly after each other?

That is how randomness works. You simply don't understand what random patterns will look like in terms of individual experience. Its very common not to understand this, most people don't, which is why there is a constant stream of conspiracy theories about the site 'rigging' the dice.

While its possible for the programmers to have screwed something up its unlikely they would not simply be using a random variable to select a scenario from a set (and in all likelihood this is a site feature, but hard to confirm without a developer stepping in).

I'm asking for experience from other people playing Memoir Arena games often. Is that you? Did you experience this also, or is this something you did not experience?

[RobertBr]

I'm asking for experience from other people playing Memoir Arena games often. Is that you? Did you experience this also, or is this something you did not experience?

No, you are not. You are attempting to engage in confirmation bias - a common cognitive error in analysis. The end of that path of thinking is unhinged conspiracy theories.

Your experience is the experience a player would have of an independent random variable, so player experience is worthless to tell you anything about what is happening.

[Fleurdelysé]

I'm asking for experience from other people playing Memoir Arena games often. Is that you? Did you experience this also, or is this something you did not experience?

No, you are not. You are attempting to engage in confirmation bias - a common cognitive error in analysis. The end of that path of thinking is unhinged conspiracy theories.

Your experience is the experience a player would have of an independent random variable, so player experience is worthless to tell you anything about what is happening.

On the contrary, he is not seeking confirmation bias, since he's asking to all the active players who might want to answer his question. Myself diverge from his opinion, since I have very few PT scenarios (none) whereas he's only playing those.

Confirmation bias would be trying to ignore or eliminate all data or evidences that do not support our theory, or to change ambigious data to solid hard proofs. Could there be confirmation bias at any point further? Of course. To say he's ACTIVELY attempting to make a fallacy when in fact, you do not even know what experience he is personnally taking into consideration as of the M44 players... kinda bold.

He's only asking for experience in order to see if there IS a problem with the programming of the ARENA mode... you've said yourself that only a programmer who would step in could confirm or deny the feeling Joeroenh advances. In order for a programmer to step in, a good idea would to create a thread on this matter, and evaluate the experience of other players. Then, on a consensus, ask to verify the programming, OR to be explained how the system works. Indeed, there will never be sufficient data shared here to make it tangible, but it still is worth the talk.
Or again, we can close this discussion, and call it ''a path to unhinged conspiracy theory''.

[Jeronimon]

Hi Jeroenh


I think I play about as many games as you do (slightly more maybe )

I think the random is random.

I do tend to "spot" patterns, but the database for Arena games is not all that big.
So I feel it will occur for a lot of players that consecutive scenarios will be from the same theatre or even the same scenario.

488 players have played 2463 games in the current Arena season (me at 12, no pattern so far this season )

[Waikirikiri]

I've reviewed most of the Arena M44 games I've played this season.

The list is
POINTE-DU-HOC
BREAKOUT TO LISYANKA
MATANIKAU RIVER
ARRACOURT
CLEARING MATANIKAU RIVER
PANZERS VERSUS GRANTS
FIRST ASSAULT WAVEBLOODY RIDGE
MATANIKAU RIVER
JUNO BEACH
FLANKING MANEUVER AT BIR HAKEIM
COUNTER-ATTACK ON MORTAIN
SUOMUSSALMI
SUOMUSSALMI
RUSSIAN BREAKOUT
ST VITH
LIBERATION OF PARIS
CLEARING MATANIKAU RIVER
SAINTE-MÈRE-EGLISE
JAPANESE COUNTERATTACK
BREAKOUT AT KLIN
BLOODY RIDGE

There's some from each theatre, more double ups than I'd expected but still random enough.