What are the odds...?

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Blartman
Posts: 1
Joined: 20 February 2021, 23:27

What are the odds...?

Post by Blartman »

Move 36 :12:57:15
Blartman scores 12 points in Fours with 4 / 4 / 4 / 5 / 6
BestBorys4554 rolls 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Move 37 :12:57:20
BestBorys4554 scores 50 points in Yahtzee with 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Blartman rolls 3 / 1 / 4 / 6 / 2
Move 38 :12:57:28
Blartman rerolls 3 / 1 / 4 / 2 into 1 / 3 / 5 / 5
Move 39 :12:57:33
Blartman rerolls 1 / 3 / 5 / 5 into 5 / 6 / 6 / 3
Move 40 :12:57:41
Blartman scores 18 points in Sixes with 5 / 6 / 6 / 6 / 3
BestBorys4554 rolls 6 / 6 / 6 / 6 / 6
Move 41 :12:57:51
BestBorys4554 scores 30 points in Three of a kind with 6 / 6 / 6 / 6 / 6
BestBorys4554 scores 100 points extra Yahtzee bonus!
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Jellby
Posts: 1439
Joined: 31 December 2013, 12:22

Re: What are the odds...?

Post by Jellby »

The odds of what?

The odds of such a game occurring at least once? Easy: 100% :D
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gmrsmrt
Posts: 21
Joined: 08 January 2021, 17:20

Re: What are the odds...?

Post by gmrsmrt »

The probability to get two CONSECUTIVE yahtzee with the FIRST roll is about 0.6 per million
since in a game you have 13 rounds you have 12 possibilities for this to occurr to one player namely 24 possibilities for each game.
Thus the probability is about 14 per million per game. On average this will occur 14 times each million games played. Certainly unlikely
but, I guess, occurring many times in BGA given the amount of played games.
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Silene
Posts: 789
Joined: 23 October 2013, 17:50

Re: What are the odds...?

Post by Silene »

However the chances of ANYTHING weird/noteworthy to happen is much bigger. when you already know WHAT happened and after that ask "how are the odds" then they are already manipulated.
If you had just stroke your big straight and the next 3 turns roll a big straight on the first roll you might've also come here and ask "what are the odds?"
Hosting Allround-League: https://boardgamearena.com/group?id=7870115 --> a league where you have matches of random games vs. other players in your group - season 6 started in Nov. '23 with 128 participants.
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Remkar
Posts: 293
Joined: 25 March 2021, 22:10

Re: What are the odds...?

Post by Remkar »

Also, rolling EXACTLY
3 1 4 6 2
Then rerolling 4 and getting EXACTLY
1 3 5 5
with that reroll
is statistically less likely than rolling 2 Yahtzees in a row.

What isn't anyone concerned about those rolls? ;)
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Waikirikiri
Posts: 154
Joined: 25 November 2022, 03:19

Re: What are the odds...?

Post by Waikirikiri »

What are the odds that someone will find consecutive online die rolls that they find surprising?

100%
RobertBr
Posts: 520
Joined: 08 July 2016, 15:57

Re: What are the odds...?

Post by RobertBr »

What are the odds that a conspiracy theorist will turn up and complain they rolled really well - zero apparently.
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