First mover advantage is huge

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SJLAU91
Posts: 1
Joined: 12 April 2024, 17:36

First mover advantage is huge

Post by SJLAU91 »

In 1v1s is there a way to see the percentage of how many games are won by the first mover? I feel like the person with the first move often has an advantage in the game. Maybe introduce a way to draw this game by giving the second player an extra round after the first player achieves the win condition, and the second player can draw if they can achieve the win condition too?
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smattathias
Posts: 12
Joined: 06 December 2021, 04:28

Re: First mover advantage is huge

Post by smattathias »

The mods/devs talk a lot about seeing these kinds of stats in other games. I'd be curious too. But be prepared for it to be tiny. My guess is 51% to 49%, first player advantage.
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Shobu
Posts: 435
Joined: 04 January 2020, 04:14

Re: First mover advantage is huge

Post by Shobu »

Would be interesting to know that stat. I guess we can also reach out the designer on BGG.
Martiman113
Posts: 1
Joined: 17 November 2022, 06:07

Re: First mover advantage is huge

Post by Martiman113 »

Interesting point, I checked up my last 100 games:

Won as First-mover: 34×
Lost as First-mover: 19×
Won as Second-mover: 27×
Lost as Second-mover: 20×

My First-mover winning percentage: 64.2%
My Second-mover winning percentage: 57.4% (gap: 6.7%)
Overall First-mover wins: 54/100

What can we infer from that? The First-mover has a small advantage,my personal winning percentage increases by 6.7% when I start the game. However, I also tested the statistical significance for the overall First-player winning percentage. For n=100, we need at least 59 wins to have a significant difference (binomial test with p= 0.05). Long Story short: the Second-Mover still has plenty of chances to win. I would like to compare my sample to your experiences.
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