dice used in catan is biased

[pv1111]

i have lost so many games as the numbers appearing dont really follow the probability distribution. its very weird makes me hate BGA

[Jellby]

How do you know that? When you roll a 7, how do you know the probability was not 1/6? When you roll 4 consecutive 7s, how do you know the probability was not 1/6 for every single one of them?

[Suoivax]

i have lost so many games as the numbers appearing dont really follow the probability distribution. its very weird makes me hate BGA

Probable distribution is not random, any more than even distribution is random.

Tell ya what, roll two dice 10 times and record the results.

Then do it again.

And again.

Keep going for, oh, a couple dozen sets of 10.

Let us know, of those couple dozen sets, how many were perfect distribution.

[7_1_0_9_3_i]

After the update, the dice rolls became so unpredictable that I don't understand how this is even possible? In one game, crazy spam 11 or 5, in another 3 or 4 plays more often than 6 and 8. That’s spam! When one of the players takes two identical adjacent numbers, he can win in 10 minutes. Please check for a possible bug.

[Jellby]

A possible bug because the dice are unpredictable? Do you know what random means?

[cowboy_dan]

After the update, the dice rolls became so unpredictable that I don't understand how this is even possible? In one game, crazy spam 11 or 5, in another 3 or 4 plays more often than 6 and 8. That’s spam! When one of the players takes two identical adjacent numbers, he can win in 10 minutes. Please check for a possible bug.

They can also lose if those numbers are rolled less often. It’s a high risk, high reward move, that you are able to take if you’d like.

[Suoivax]

After the update, the dice rolls became so unpredictable that I don't understand how this is even possible? In one game, crazy spam 11 or 5, in another 3 or 4 plays more often than 6 and 8. That’s spam! When one of the players takes two identical adjacent numbers, he can win in 10 minutes. Please check for a possible bug.

If the dice were predictable, they wouldn't be random...

[Paddles]

After the update, the dice rolls became so unpredictable that I don't understand how this is even possible? In one game, crazy spam 11 or 5, in another 3 or 4 plays more often than 6 and 8. That’s spam! When one of the players takes two identical adjacent numbers, he can win in 10 minutes. Please check for a possible bug.

Guess what? I've seen that sort of thing happen in real-life games with ordinary dice rolled by players that aren't cheating/colluding.

So I'll ask you the same question that I ask when people complain about supposedly non-random dice here in Backgammon, Can't Stop etc. or supposedly non-random cards in Hearts, Cribbage etc.:

• Where is your accumulated data?
• How big is your sample size?
• What tests did you use to analyse it?
• What conclusions did you get, at what level of significance?

If you've got some analysis to show, I'll be happy to review it. If you've just got a couple of anecdotes, then you've got nothing except a demonstration that you don't understand statistics, probability or what randomness looks like - which is pretty much normal for most of us humans, we're spectacularly bad at recognising true randomness partly because our brains are designed to look for patterns, whether or not there are patterns to be found.

While I'm not a practising statistician, I do have a degree in mathematical statistics and computer science. Knowing what I know, I'd trust the dice roller on BGA games to give fairer results than someone rolling two dice in the cup - even if it was me holding the cup. I play enough games here that I'm not suspicious if double-6 comes up three times in a row - it would be more suspicious if it never happened.

[tylerjwarren]

I think it just feels biased when we are unlucky. It seems to always roll 7 when I lease want it to, but it's more likely I'm just biased against 7 in that case. So far I've played a good number of games and dice do seem fairly random to me. Sucks to get robber, or build on the 8 that never shows up, but real life Catan does the same thing to me too. I say, "just roll with it!" Whatever turns up turns up.

[Nekojin]

I think it just feels biased when we are unlucky. It seems to always roll 7 when I lease want it to, but it's more likely I'm just biased against 7 in that case. So far I've played a good number of games and dice do seem fairly random to me. Sucks to get robber, or build on the 8 that never shows up, but real life Catan does the same thing to me too. I say, "just roll with it!" Whatever turns up turns up.

Emphasis added.

We're observing a bit of Dunning-Krueger Syndrome, where a person feels more confident about their skills than they are actually capable of. In this case, watching and analyzing dice rolls, and thinking that they know when it's "not random enough." The OP assumes that his losing streak means that something's wrong, since he thinks he's better at the game than he actually is. (Note: I suck at Catan, too!)

I don't mean this as an insult - most people overestimate their abilities on some things that are similar, but not the same, as things that they're actually competent at... and most people also conflate their abilities on skills they have with completely unrelated things (like, say, doctors making commentary on engineering issues).

It's part of being human, and it helps to watch out for when you're doing it.