dice used in catan is biased

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Fusselkopp
Posts: 24
Joined: 10 December 2020, 22:47

Re: dice used in catan is biased

Post by Fusselkopp »

I recently had 2 games in a row where my bad luck with the dice bordered on ridiculous, 6 and 8 barely getting rolled. I've played dozens of games before and since, with varying luck. That's what randomness looks like. It happens.
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Nekojin
Posts: 81
Joined: 28 March 2024, 01:21

Re: dice used in catan is biased

Post by Nekojin »

Here's a little clue for people. Dice do not have memory. Neither do coins. If you've rolled a 7 three times in a row, the odds of the next roll does not change - the odds of the next roll being a 7 is still 1 in 6.

If you think that the rolls you've already seen have an influence on the future rolls, you're under the delusion of a concept called The Law of Averages, which is not actually a natural law, it's a fallacy.

So if you've seen six Elevens (each one has 1 in 18 chance) over the course of the game, that doesn't mean that you won't see more Elevens, or that the other numbers are now more likely.

Similarly, just because you've seen a distribution of rolls over the course of one game that isn't a perfect curve, that doesn't mean that the dice are loaded, uneven, or biased. A hundred rolls is a very low number. The numbers could remain uneven for a thousand rolls, or even a million... or you might never see it come back to a perfect balance of all of the numbers.

That's what RANDOM is.
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Jellby
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Joined: 31 December 2013, 12:22

Re: dice used in catan is biased

Post by Jellby »

Anthena wrote: 10 July 2024, 11:38 As you can see, in this particular game, 7, 8 and 9 were the dominating rolls. Coincidence?
No, randomness.
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Slimbo
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Joined: 03 February 2011, 04:44

Re: dice used in catan is biased

Post by Slimbo »

538030709
check out this game with the loaded dice. That's not random. That's beyond the scope of probababilty for this to happen this often when the winner is from Europe. I'll find some more examples if you like?

You should play the lottery with such "Random" luck.

Miss me with you're nonsense, please.
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Jellby
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Joined: 31 December 2013, 12:22

Re: dice used in catan is biased

Post by Jellby »

No single game you can show can prove that the dice are not random (or that they are). Even a game where all the rolls are 12 would not prove anything, only that it can happen.
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Nekojin
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Joined: 28 March 2024, 01:21

Re: dice used in catan is biased

Post by Nekojin »

Slimbo wrote: 16 July 2024, 11:19 538030709
check out this game with the loaded dice. That's not random. That's beyond the scope of probababilty for this to happen this often when the winner is from Europe. I'll find some more examples if you like?

You should play the lottery with such "Random" luck.

Miss me with you're nonsense, please.
Before you go cherry-picking games that had results that seem odd to you, you really need to take a crash course in the scientific method. Instead of finding results that suit your bias, you need to start an investigation, and record the results of every single game you play, not just the odd ones, for a hundred or so games in a row. All of them, every single roll without exception.

Then you'll have something worth examining.

For what it's worth, we had something similar happen in City of Heroes. Every single time that there was a new patch, some players would flood the forums, complaining about how hit rates had been changed, they were missing too often. They were sure of it, absolutely positive! But when other people actually tested it responsibly, the results showed that the hit rate was exactly what it had been before the patch. And the patch before that. And the twenty patches before THAT.

Your perception that things are wrong is just that - a perception, not evidence, not proof. And you're getting more certain simply because other people are banging the same drum you are. That doesn't make you right, any more than it made them right.
Rufasu
Posts: 37
Joined: 04 March 2023, 07:31

Re: dice used in catan is biased

Post by Rufasu »

In the end, suspicion will not disappear until the source code is opened.
Because when it comes to probability, it can mean anything is possible.
If we open source, I think this argument will disappear.
twsansbury
Posts: 7
Joined: 19 August 2021, 04:14

Re: dice used in catan is biased

Post by twsansbury »

No. The source code cannot affirm randomness. The source code can only affirm no biased manipulation of the result received from the interpreter API. If no manipulation is found, then those who assert non-randomness will claim a custom interpreter, kernel, hypervisor, etc. As mentioned above, the only way to affirm randomness is to gather a large sample of dice rolls, then perform statistical analysis.
Rufasu
Posts: 37
Joined: 04 March 2023, 07:31

Re: dice used in catan is biased

Post by Rufasu »

The program does not lie.
Everything can be understood by reading the program,
You can use the program to get statistics until you are satisfied.
With a program, you can roll the dice a billion times.
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Jellby
Posts: 1698
Joined: 31 December 2013, 12:22

Re: dice used in catan is biased

Post by Jellby »

Rufasu wrote: 17 July 2024, 00:20 In the end, suspicion will not disappear until the source code is opened.
Not even then. People will claim the actual code being run is not the code shown, or that the sever is further manipulating stuff.
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