Number improbability

[Suoivax]

i am pretty sure the same guy does not code every game on here so yes I believe that the algorithm for random dice rolls is different in every game.

This just proves you don't know anything about programming/coding.

[Cile]

Dice in game board arena totally not random. I think it may be programmed against the people that are not paying the fee.

I really hope I'm running afoul of Poe's Law here, but just in case:

The code to generate a random number between 1 and 6 is a single line of well established code. It takes less than a minute to write.

You are suggesting that instead developers have taken the time required to type the code that:
1. Checks the accounts of the players to see who is a Premium member
2. Determine if the Premium member is losing and needs help from the code
3. Determine what roll would benefit the Premium player (not particularly easy)
3b. Make sure the selected roll doesn't help a non-permium player as much
4. Determine how frequently to cheat in order to not make it obvious
5. Because the developers are volunteers, or paid by the publishers of the board game and notably NOT BGA, they are doing this because ???
6. This would be very easy to spot by someone reviewing the code. Making it very easy for someone to expose. So everyone who understands how to read code is in on the conspiracy because ???

Personally I would just write the 1 line of code for a random result instead of risking my reputation for no apparent benefit.

[Jellby]

Also because apparently you can get exactly the same effects by just writing the simple code

[TarNZi]

I've noticed the lack of 7's (ie 1/6; 2/5; 3/4) being rolled in Space Base and wondered if the alogrithm needs tweeking to the probability.

[Meeplelowda]

I've noticed the lack of 7's (ie 1/6; 2/5; 3/4) being rolled in Space Base and wondered if the alogrithm needs tweeking to the probability.

Instead of going by what you "notice," actually collect a statistically relevant amount of data (and record which games the data came from so it can be reproduced). And just a couple games will not be enough data. Actually write it down (or program a script to mine it from the game log). That's the only relevant thing to bring to this conversation.

[Gnugly]

I've noticed the lack of 7's (ie 1/6; 2/5; 3/4) being rolled in Space Base and wondered if the alogrithm needs tweeking to the probability.

Doing a simulation of 100k dice rolls, getting a sum of 7 comes up about 16% of the time, so in a 3p game you should see a 7 on average once every 2 rounds. Which is really not that often, should line up with what you're saying.

(arbitrarly rounded up)
sums of dice probability distribution according to my simulation
2 - 2.7%
3 - 5.5%
4 - 8.2%
5 - 11%
6 - 14%
7 - 16.5%
8 - 14%
9 - 11.2% (Should be same as 5, but there is some randomness in the simulation so it is not 100% accurate, close enough tho!)
10 - 8.4%
11 - 5.6%
12 - 2.7%

On the other hand, getting a sum of 6 pops up 14% of the time, and getting at least a single die with a 6 is about 25/36 which is ~31%, these events are independent, so you should be getting a 6 45% of the time, waay more common than a 7, so, that should be the number to aim for.

In that case, chance of getting a number at least once in a dice roll should be:

2 - 33.7%
3 - 36.5%
4 - 39.2%
5 - 41%
6 - 45%
7 - 16.5%
8 - 14%
9 - 11.2%
10 - 8.4%
11 - 5.6%
12 - 2.7%

[Jellby]

On the other hand, getting a sum of 6 pops up 14% of the time, and getting at least a single die with a 6 is about 25/36 which is ~31%, these events are independent

Where did you get 25/36? A single die with 6 you get 10/36, and a double 6 1/36. And they "single six" and "sum of six" are certainly not independent, there's no way you can get both. Perhaps you meant exclusive?

[robinzig]

On the other hand, getting a sum of 6 pops up 14% of the time, and getting at least a single die with a 6 is about 25/36 which is ~31%, these events are independent

Where did you get 25/36? A single die with 6 you get 10/36, and a double 6 1/36. And they "single six" and "sum of six" are certainly not independent, there's no way you can get both. Perhaps you meant exclusive?

I think the 25/36 is a mistake, when they meant 11/36 (the complement - 25/36 being the change of *not* rolling a 6 in a roll of 2 dice), and you're right that they should have said "exclusive" rather than "independent". But the logic and the maths are correct here. (And shouldn't say anything controversial - surely anyone who's played Space Base at all knows that 1-6 are far more common than 7-12, and that in each range it's the ones nearer the middle that are the more common.)

[Phoxtrot]

Sigh, the conspiracy theorists who try to make their case but don't know the maths.
If you cannot define and compute a likelyhood function for those rolls, you have nothing.