Is it me or 95% of steals are mermaid???

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HaggbartSlark
Posts: 20
Joined: 23 February 2021, 23:35

Re: Is it me or 95% of steals are mermaid???

Post by HaggbartSlark »

*sigh*

People, randomness does NOT mean perfectly distributed data. I've implemented randomness several times coding games, I even made a test tool to show that the native pseudo-random method in a programming language is in practical terms for this purpose just as good as a crypto key generator algorithm when implementing randomness in a game (drawing cards, rolling dice etc.). But even knowing this people will go "this can''t be coincidental" whenever they get clustered data.

If you want to stop it happening that it's possible to have X amount of mermaid steals in a row or whatever to ensure consistent distribution over time, THAT will require you to rig the algorithm. Random data will always have the potential to cluster, it's only over a very large sample size that you will see this even out. Drawing conclusion over say <10 games or whatever is crazy.

FWIW I've played this game over 2000 times on BGA, and there is nothing that suggests foul play.

The developer has even posted the source code so you can see for yourself
https://github.com/thoun
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Meeplelowda
Posts: 1636
Joined: 14 March 2020, 10:31

Re: Is it me or 95% of steals are mermaid???

Post by Meeplelowda »

HaggbartSlark wrote: 09 October 2024, 23:42People, randomness does NOT mean perfectly distributed data. I've implemented randomness several times coding games, I even made a test tool to show that the native pseudo-random method in a programming language is in practical terms for this purpose just as good as a crypto key generator algorithm when implementing randomness in a game (drawing cards, rolling dice etc.). But even knowing this people will go "this can''t be coincidental" whenever they get clustered data.
1) The human brain is a pattern seeking neural net. This is why people see deities in charred toast or think they can predict the outcome of a lottery drawing based on past results.
2) Once a pattern is observed, the human brain also is primed to assigned a meaning to the pattern. It's a message. It's rigged. Etc.

Researchers who have to deal with data for a living are trained in using protocols and data analysis techniques that are followed specifically not to allow their pattern seeking lizard brain to lead them astray. Such protocols specify how much data needs to be collected to even begin to make any useful conclusions, and what threshold "anomalous" results need to surpass before you can rationally start to suspect that something beyond pure chance is at work. Trying to educate people on Internet forums about this with a couple paragraphs only works in extremely rare circumstances.

I've self-banned myself from threads like this (but since I've already commented in this thread, I've temporarily lifted my restriction) because it's always the same thing. A bunch of "I've noticed that" or "I feel that" or "it seems to me that," usually without any actual recorded data. The times when data is given, it's like from one game instead of a statistically relevant sample. And even in those cases it's often just a self-reported anecdote without a game ID so it can be verified.

Someone once claimed about backgammon that "this never happens with real dice." I easily found live tournament logs (which are recorded the same way the moves in chess tournaments are) that showed that, yes, it does happen with real dice.
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