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Re: "dubious" luck

Posted: 09 March 2020, 06:48
by N_Faker
Ze Monstah wrote: 08 March 2020, 23:17 To replay all games and to name people who might not want to be named (or who I cannot even remember exactly) and so on... I rest my case. I will not go see and replay 75 games just to make my case in front of you, if this is what you are asking.

If I was to think now, i think 50% of the times i got 6-6s were right after being taken out. And some times, i see the enemies have 6-6s first after i take them out, as well. Don't know to give you a username or replay a game right now!
Ze Monstah wrote: 09 March 2020, 05:13 Game 66200757 or whatever... being taken out, 2 6-6s one after the other.
Game 66201586... enemy gets taken out, i have 6 and 5 spaces filled in my home. He gets 6-5 then 6-6, one after the other.
Beware, some trees may block your view of the forest.

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Posted: 09 March 2020, 07:12
by Ze Monstah
:idea:

Re: "dubious" luck

Posted: 09 March 2020, 10:21
by Jest Phulin
Ze Monstah wrote: 08 March 2020, 23:17 You could have also said where this has been discussed so many times before here, when i see my post being the only one about it...
https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewto ... 2&start=10
https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewto ... 69&t=14399
https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewto ... 12&t=13966
https://boardgamearena.com/faq?anchor=f ... ing_random

The one in the Developers forum is especially interesting, as it is a developer stating that something looks wrong. They are then presented with independent ways of verifying the randomness, and do not come back and say those tests failed.

Oh, and of course https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=hu ... i=scholart

As far as your examples: You list 3 blots. What about the other 4 blots in game 3720, the 6 in 3544, the other 9 in 1568, the 8 in 1233, the 8 in 1105, and the other 11 in 757? As well as the other 7 games you played in the same hour as those? Averaging 8 blots a game (the average of the games you played from 757 to 3720), this should be about 105 blots. So, 3 occurrences is the 1:36 expected with true randomness.

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Posted: 09 March 2020, 14:13
by Ze Monstah
:idea:

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Posted: 09 March 2020, 14:49
by Ze Monstah
:idea:

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Posted: 09 March 2020, 16:26
by Ze Monstah
:idea:

Re: "dubious" luck

Posted: 09 March 2020, 19:14
by Jest Phulin
Ze Monstah wrote: 09 March 2020, 14:13 As for those 3 examples, i found them really relevant, since I don't want to look deeper.
[snip]
... I only wanted to see if perhaps I am paranoid. And I think I am not entirely.
You are still using only examples that fit your preconceived notion of what is wrong with the random number generator on this site. Between your stated results on games 66230936 and 66203720, you have 8 other games played. I'm assuming that these didn't have any episodes, otherwise you would have included them. Even if you remove the games that were not played in your latest Backgammon gaming session, there are still 6 games played within about an hour. This is hardly "1 time in 2 games."

https://www.healthline.com/health/paranoia defines paranoia as an irrational suspicion or mistrust. If the random number generator is indeed flawed, it would not be an irrational suspicion; rather it would be easily demonstrable and quite rational. I have provided a method to prove it. If you don't want to take the effort to prove it yourself, you can hardly expect others to believe your claims.

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Posted: 09 March 2020, 20:09
by Ze Monstah
:idea:

Re: "dubious" luck

Posted: 09 March 2020, 20:25
by Een
I think this is a case of "do not feed the troll". Thanks for trying though Jest, you made perfect sense.

Bless! :)

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Posted: 09 March 2020, 20:35
by Ze Monstah
:idea: