Board Game Arena

Just had a match where 10 was rolled every other turn 8 times. 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 were nearly non-existent. One set of 6 sided dice. I understand the concept of randomness, but I also understand the concept of probability and standard deviation. My match was not getting random rolls.

But you don't understand that one match cannot say anything about randomness.

My match was not getting random rolls

nonsense !

TheDukeOfEarl wrote: ↑19 June 2023, 06:21 Just had a match where 10 was rolled every other turn 8 times. 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 were nearly non-existent. One set of 6 sided dice. I understand the concept of randomness, but I also understand the concept of probability and standard deviation. My match was not getting random rolls.

No, you do not understand it.

I'd suggest googling the Law of large numbers, the Law of truly large numbers and confirmation bias.

Did you take note of the actual rolls? Or you are just pulling it out of your memory?

I am sure it is the second.

Even then, with enough games being played eventually someone will get weird rolls in one.

Last year i thought something similar about another game, so i decided to test it. I dont know, what exactly you mean by "randomness" but i know how to test "fairness" meaning all values from range has same probability ( 1/6 on d6; 1/10 on d10 ). So i took logs from more than 40 games, more than 2000 rolls of d6 and tested it in 4 different ways. None of the test prooved unfairness of rolls. Simple conclusion: alltogeather rolls are fair even when do not like it.
However if you want to see it for yourself i can write little bit more about testing hypothesis like "Dicerolls are unfair", code program for it, you can copy several logs from SE4X and run the test. Last year it helped me to get credit for Statistics course, maybe this could get me something for programming

It is a form of bias. You only remember the rare very bad results you rolled.

There is some professor who did research on physical Warhammer dice and found that they do roll more 1s that they should. You may find it interesting: https://www.dakkadakka.com/wiki/en/That ... is_of_Dice

Basically if you want a fair physical die, you need to buy brand new gambling dice. Board game dice are just not high quality. On a computer random numbers are generally fair. You need some fancy random number generator only if you want to do Monte Carlo simulations.