Another "where would you place?"

[Stroom]

tl:dr; You are completely basing your strategy on luck. Either to get the largest army and longest road or getting dev cards. Sure, it might work in some games but in general, a more balanced approach would work better IMO. In a 3p game, getting 1-2 settlements out ASAP would often work better as you have more diverse production.

"While other 2 players can buy them too at a similar rate"
at the very best the one player, who has the lead(yellow), comes even close to challenge you on dev cards and getting more production to get more dev cards. [little basics insert, so we are on the same page: you are playing, as yellow, with 1 8 ore and prob. a 9, an 8 if you are lucky, 8+9 if you are willing to give up brick/clay against 5+8 ore and 4+9 wheat. which are the things you need to to get cities to doable your dev card production.] the tactic for yellow being to go for spreading out to more ore places (the 5), so you could keep up with city production and making your own - also blocking vital points for dev cards and cities (which is the fun point, he cant block every spot with 1 robber) - also getting player 3(purple to cooperate to block you. .... I do think yellow would be ahead with the start but if you get the position I suggested AND get to your first city first, yellow has MAJOR problems.
so the first part, that both could keep up is wrong (purple without either wheat or ore - really ?? xD). So, is the second part, at the start at least. - It is a highly volatile position, and I think it is slightly more likely for yellow to get the upper hand.

I said, combined buying power. With 2nd settlements. You would likely have to trade for wood and brick to expand, especially if you only draw knights and VPs at the start of the game. This means buying less dev cards... Or you do go all in, in which case other players could snatch the locations you might want to expand. So your only "out" is to get 2 cities, LA, and 4 VP cards. Maybe 1 settlement and City is still possible.

Yellow's 2nd location can be tricky. He might even just go for 2 brick, 1 wheat, getting a 3:1 port as 4th settlement. Not sure how that plays out but it might give an opportunity for longest road too.

Purple likely gets 5-8-10 or 5-5-12, later other sheep locations too with a sheep port. Might work out, might not. Risky either way.

" But they can also expand faster than you so they might get to the good expansion locations before you."
If you mean "expand=spread on the map", fair enough. But you should be faster with production expansion then they are. But main point here is that the best and crucial locations would be taken at this point anyway - therefore building cities at those, doubling your production, is more efficient and will get you most of the stuff you need. (getting the port and an extra 8 are just an economic bonus; you mostly just need one to get another city purerly for points. - getting 2 is even easier for a win, but depends on getting monopoly/2 free resources-card or trading, which might be blocked by both players.... but purple is also dependent on those trades, so its a question how long he could keep that block up^^)

"Getting a road building early is about 8% chance." - at first try ? am I building only one? , also thats the weakest one, besides knights/if Im not going for 5 roads to blitz finish.

Not really that much faster. Having more spread out settlements means less susceptible to blocking by the robber. If you place a city, it produces 2x but if you block it, it blocks 2x as hard too. Sure, these locations have good pips.
Here you show that your tactic is to get 5 roads... but your other settlement is most likely not going to be connected. While other players most likely will build more roads and would likely not let you get LR so fast. You only have one strategy, one out. Being more diverse would really help out more.

"The 2 other players combined might buy the same amount of dev cards as you, not individually. Depends on their 2nd locations of course. But they also have access to wood and brick so they will get their settlements down faster." - so, if we buy out the whole stack it is 50-50 Id get one road/monopoly/2-resources, at least expected value, so at the very least Im likely to get some of those which is enough to get unstuck. - I try to get more in depth. the only problem with that only wheat ore 1 sheep tactic is getting stuck/build in and not getting a specific resource you need, which could even get worse if you get targeted on you sheep in a dev card race. The rest is just fine. Clay and wood are negligible if you have fine spots and the game is going for 10 points.
(also it is not said it is the best position to be in, just the best/most likely to win yourself, from the available)
[should be dissecting this futher; but not worth the time; and the basis I would be using, I already written above this.]

This is on average. And you might not even buy all the dev cards before someone wins. And the order in which you get those cards matters too. All based on luck.

I'm not saying that your placements are completely useless, no. They are quite good but I am pointing at the obvious one-way-to-win situation you put yourself in with this.

I know there is a whole debate about 3p vs 4p games, wouldnt get into it much. My only claim is that, if the people, you are playing, are on an extremely high level and are willing to counter play and cooperate vs leader, 3p is just fine and fun and complex to play; with the added bonus that all board combination are to playable for all players, and not getting a (mostly) dead player or very very stiff/slow game, on some board combinations.

3p actually has somewhat a runaway leader element. Harder to block, easier for the dice to determine early if someone is going to win. And this is where early expansion comes into play. If you have so much room on the board, you can expand faster to more diverse numbers, so you will always have something to do on your turn. And then it snowballs into turn after turn... Harder to do in 4p as it is more cut-throat

Also on you saying that sentence. If it is that easy, one should be thinking the answer to best start positions would be trivial....
Futhermore you claimed to be a good player, somewhere, and are going with that assumption into arguing, which I find weird, considering A. you have 1 game on bga, and there are no elo on other sites, afaik, (so I cant check, if you would even be able to reach 400 (lets take that as the naive nominal value for "seriously good player")) and B. you are missing key knowledge about the meta.....
Little disclaimer I also miss some meta knowledge it seems. But I dont think its that key. (I just read that people, that are good, think about number diversity - I played for same numbers in ore wheat combination and wood clay combination for instance, and just ingored the rest... might be a way to improve^^).

I have played thousands of games on the earlier version, PlayCatan. I don't play on BGA as this version has a horrible turn timer and trading system. People are more toxic when playing online too. and really slow. The PlayCatan UI was much friendlier and allowed games to be completed in 20 minutes.

Catan is a game of luck for the most part. I don't find that elo would matter much here either. It would likely fluctuate a lot as in 4p games, it is harder to win consistently. But in BGA people play 3p games anyway. Even more random due to the higher snowballing effect.

[silentProtest]

tl:dr; You are completely basing your strategy on luck. Either to get the largest army and longest road or getting dev cards. Sure, it might work in some games but in general, a more balanced approach would work better IMO. In a 3p game, getting 1-2 settlements out ASAP would often work better as you have more diverse production.
[....]
You only have one strategy, one out. Being more diverse would really help out more.

[...]
This is on average. And you might not even buy all the dev cards before someone wins. And the order in which you get those cards matters too. All based on luck.

I'm not saying that your placements are completely useless, no. They are quite good but I am pointing at the obvious one-way-to-win situation you put yourself in with this.

[...]
3p actually has somewhat a runaway leader element. Harder to block, easier for the dice to determine early if someone is going to win. And this is where early expansion comes into play. If you have so much room on the board, you can expand faster to more diverse numbers, so you will always have something to do on your turn. And then it snowballs into turn after turn... Harder to do in 4p as it is more cut-throat

[...]
I have played thousands of games on the earlier version, PlayCatan. I don't play on BGA as this version has a horrible turn timer and trading system. People are more toxic when playing online too. and really slow. The PlayCatan UI was much friendlier and allowed games to be completed in 20 minutes.

Catan is a game of luck for the most part. I don't find that elo would matter much here either. It would likely fluctuate a lot as in 4p games, it is harder to win consistently. But in BGA people play 3p games anyway. Even more random due to the higher snowballing effect.

" You only have one strategy, one out. Being more diverse would really help out more."
actually no, it is a strategy with many possible paths to take, demonstrated by even being able to rush longest road to surprise win, when noone expects that. Yeah you could summirice it by go for cities and dev cards, but the actual options you get during the game are multifaceted (which the game is mostly about imo, having options until clearer paths/rushes to win present, during blocking the opponents doing the same, ideally collectively (but thats a question of communication and player experience))

" And the order in which you get those cards matters too. " - fully agree, obv. ^^

"3p actually has somewhat a runaway leader element. " - also agree, IF the player dont actively counter play, which starts in placing phase - in 3p you go for best position that takes away the most options for the opponents, and not just the best position for yourself. (but I also have a limited experience with 4p games - a couple hundred, so take that with a grain of salt)

" [...] on BGA as this version has a horrible turn timer and trading system. " - agree.

"Catan is a game of luck for the most part" - could not disagree more - fun thing, I started to play online on playcatan too. I have a "full" account (with 99 plays, no leaves, couple substitute plays) without a loss. Yeah it is easier if you only play only a fraction 4p games and even more so if noone knows sees, through elo, how good you are, but still, not a luck game at all.(as in not the deciding factor, obv. you got luck elements you need to integrate into strategies and tactics)

" It would likely fluctuate a lot as in 4p games, it is harder to win consistently" - if it does against mid or even bad players on the table it says something about the playstyle, not about it generally being a "mostly luck game" ...

Edit: the rest I have to say to that, would either be rudandant, since I wrote it out above, or the original argument (seems)/is inconsistent with itself, or the (imo) main meta.

Edit2: resource diversity is nice if you can get it freely, and if you mostly need it to win - which you dont here - there are no critical spots to build to with roads for you at that point - 3:1 port is nice, with that 6 sheep, the 1 more 8 ore is also nice - but getting your 2 cities up are an order of magnitude nicer. + the diversity and having options if blocked are way more relevant for other tactics... you have (likely) knights and negotiation pressure
++ leaving yellow 5 8 ore as expansion spot is handing him the game, which is the case in the alternative tactics, that is the thinking in defaulting to that spot - if that was blocked, sure there could be more to think about - in either case I do not see a spot that would catapult you in leading position ahead of yellow.

[cowboy_dan]

I’m assuming orange placed first. Their first placement is solid, and they have options for getting wheat and clay so blocking them from all the good options isn’t really possible. Purple will have a hard time with ore so will be challenged to find a winning path.

I usually try to diversify my numbers, but would seriously consider placing at the 8-5 ore heading towards the 3 ore, and then the 8-5-10 wheat sheep sheep, road to the desert. The repeat numbers synergize well in terms of the resources they provide. Going all in on cities and dev cards, might as well go feast or famine, especially if there won’t be much trading.

[Stroom]

" You only have one strategy, one out. Being more diverse would really help out more."
actually no, it is a strategy with many possible paths to take, demonstrated by even being able to rush longest road to surprise win, when noone expects that. Yeah you could summirice it by go for cities and dev cards, but the actual options you get during the game are multifaceted (which the game is mostly about imo, having options until clearer paths/rushes to win present, during blocking the opponents doing the same, ideally collectively (but thats a question of communication and player experience))

That LR move is a very vague opportunity, especially in cases where other players would already have settlements within connecting distance. One of them would more likely get a LR first.

Not having access to either wood or brick makes this strategy very dependent on luck factor. You either have to trade 8 resources for wood and brick or you get lucky stealing. I'd rather say that you have more chances if you have access to larger variety of resources while still focusing on dev cards. No access to 2 types of resources can make the game harder.

"Catan is a game of luck for the most part" - could not disagree more - fun thing, I started to play online on playcatan too. I have a "full" account (with 99 plays, no leaves, couple substitute plays) without a loss. Yeah it is easier if you only play only a fraction 4p games and even more so if noone knows sees, through elo, how good you are, but still, not a luck game at all.(as in not the deciding factor, obv. you got luck elements you need to integrate into strategies and tactics)

With even skill levels, most games will end up with 2 or 3 players at 9 points. And then you just wait until one of them gets that lucky roll to make himself win. How many times have games ended with "If I had one more turn I would have won"? Quite often, Id say.

There is SOME skill involved but at a certain point, you get a cutoff of skill vs luck factor. For Catan, luck starts mattering more, the more evenly skilled players are. And this happens quite early compared to other games with less luck factor. Really, a dice roll each turn determines whether you get ot do anything on your turn or not. Sure, a more experienced player can often beat less skilled players but less skilled players can still win with luck. In chess this rarely happens. Play a bunch of games with the same highest skilled players. See if someone actually wins more in that bunch. I'd say that it will likely be around same percentage for all players. And you will see that most of those games end with a lucky roll rather than actually skilled moves.

++ leaving yellow 5 8 ore as expansion spot is handing him the game, which is the case in the alternative tactics, that is the thinking in defaulting to that spot - if that was blocked, sure there could be more to think about - in either case I do not see a spot that would catapult you in leading position ahead of yellow.

But in that case, you make yellow the main target for blocking and then you can actually focus on building your stuff and winning that way. What matters here is what the other player 2ns settlements would be after your initial placements. Not only the context of your 2 settlements. How do players start blocking each other.

[silentProtest]

" You only have one strategy, one out. Being more diverse would really help out more."
actually no, it is a strategy with many possible paths to take, demonstrated by even being able to rush longest road to surprise win, when noone expects that. Yeah you could summirice it by go for cities and dev cards, but the actual options you get during the game are multifaceted (which the game is mostly about imo, having options until clearer paths/rushes to win present, during blocking the opponents doing the same, ideally collectively (but thats a question of communication and player experience))

That LR move is a very vague opportunity, especially in cases where other players would already have settlements within connecting distance. One of them would more likely get a LR first.

Not having access to either wood or brick makes this strategy very dependent on luck factor. You either have to trade 8 resources for wood and brick or you get lucky stealing. I'd rather say that you have more chances if you have access to larger variety of resources while still focusing on dev cards. No access to 2 types of resources can make the game harder.

"Catan is a game of luck for the most part" - could not disagree more - fun thing, I started to play online on playcatan too. I have a "full" account (with 99 plays, no leaves, couple substitute plays) without a loss. Yeah it is easier if you only play only a fraction 4p games and even more so if noone knows sees, through elo, how good you are, but still, not a luck game at all.(as in not the deciding factor, obv. you got luck elements you need to integrate into strategies and tactics)

With even skill levels, most games will end up with 2 or 3 players at 9 points. And then you just wait until one of them gets that lucky roll to make himself win. How many times have games ended with "If I had one more turn I would have won"? Quite often, Id say.

There is SOME skill involved but at a certain point, you get a cutoff of skill vs luck factor. For Catan, luck starts mattering more, the more evenly skilled players are. And this happens quite early compared to other games with less luck factor. Really, a dice roll each turn determines whether you get ot do anything on your turn or not. Sure, a more experienced player can often beat less skilled players but less skilled players can still win with luck. In chess this rarely happens. Play a bunch of games with the same highest skilled players. See if someone actually wins more in that bunch. I'd say that it will likely be around same percentage for all players. And you will see that most of those games end with a lucky roll rather than actually skilled moves.

++ leaving yellow 5 8 ore as expansion spot is handing him the game, which is the case in the alternative tactics, that is the thinking in defaulting to that spot - if that was blocked, sure there could be more to think about - in either case I do not see a spot that would catapult you in leading position ahead of yellow.

But in that case, you make yellow the main target for blocking and then you can actually focus on building your stuff and winning that way. What matters here is what the other player 2ns settlements would be after your initial placements. Not only the context of your 2 settlements. How do players start blocking each other.

Didn't think Id respond, since it is mostly a nothing burger (ever thought going into politics? ). Also since we are going off topic for a while now^^

" How many times have games ended with "If I had one more turn I would have won"? Quite often, Id say. " - Actually no, never. In the rarest cases its: "Just roll this 1-5 numbers and Ive got it" - And then you either do (or trade) or dont, or take a higher risk.


"[...]In chess this rarely happens. Play a bunch of games with the same highest skilled players. See if someone actually wins more in that bunch. I'd say that it will likely be around same percentage for all players. And you will see that most of those games end with a lucky roll rather than actually skilled moves." ...
... " I'd say that it will likely be around same percentage for all players."+"[...]the same highest skilled players."

- that (+skilled player wins way more often against non skilled one) define a skill based game. It would be weird if people of the same skill level, playing each other would have a big win rate discrepancy. O.o
Maybe I misunderstood... (also: duh, there is a skill limit in vanilla catan and knigths&cities expansion would be better - you can see that by elo; you can see there even more stuff, explore )
... I just found it so baffling, you taking general (almost) tautologies , and applying it to this, generating your preferred conclusion. (yeah if skill, in the way defined by the player, is matched by others, other aspects become (way more) relevant; some of those are still new skills, that show its usefulness in the new context - the definition of what "skill" means/contains in each game is not trivial)

[Stroom]

" How many times have games ended with "If I had one more turn I would have won"? Quite often, Id say. " - Actually no, never. In the rarest cases its: "Just roll this 1-5 numbers and Ive got it" - And then you either do (or trade) or dont, or take a higher risk.

To me, this indicates 2 things: You either play with players who are way below your skill level. And that 3p games have a runaway leader issue which makes it less skillful game to play (luck of the dice comes into play more effectively, meaning that you don't really win by skill, rather having lucky rolls that snowball you to win faster).

- that (+skilled player wins way more often against non skilled one) define a skill based game. It would be weird if people of the same skill level, playing each other would have a big win rate discrepancy. O.o
Maybe I misunderstood... (also: duh, there is a skill limit in vanilla catan and knigths&cities expansion would be better - you can see that by elo; you can see there even more stuff, explore )
... I just found it so baffling, you taking general (almost) tautologies , and applying it to this, generating your preferred conclusion. (yeah if skill, in the way defined by the player, is matched by others, other aspects become (way more) relevant; some of those are still new skills, that show its usefulness in the new context - the definition of what "skill" means/contains in each game is not trivial)

I am not saying that there is 0 skill involved in Catan. What I am saying is that at the highest level, the winner is often not decided by skill, rather by luck. And if you analyze those games, you will see that everyone will reach 7-9 points and suddenly someone just... wins. This happens quite often if you know what to look for. The more you play, the more you see it. At some point, having higher skill (whatever you call it) would be negligible compared to the luck factor.

Another way to look at it is - how high can someone's elo actually grow? If it fluctuates heavily and stays relatively low to less luck based games then it indicates that luck is involved quite a lot. Meanwhile you can take 0-luck games like chess or checkers and you will see that player elo rises to some point and stays there. Even Azul has this, although there is a little bit of luck involved. Catan ~400 elo vs other 700-800 elo. Basically the luck factor ceiling comes to play at a lower skill level.

Still, it is all based on 4p games. 3p games have a runaway leader which is clearly based on having the dice roll your way. You can likely see it from the game stats too - who gained/used the most resources (note that using resources for building is different because you might also trade resources away, which is not in that statistic, at least wasn't in PlayCatan). Resource usage is the statistic that is correlated heavily to winning the game. In 3p, it is harder to block someone who gets an early lead as he can expand sooner and the resource income becomes more diversified and becomes faster, while other players are still slow.