Board Game Arena

I agree -it happens to me at least 30% of the time

Lovedolphinsk wrote: ↑30 January 2026, 05:36 I agree -it happens to me at least 30% of the time

Have you read the whole thread or only the first post?

Please tell us the exact percentage of (at least) your last 10 games. Then we can have data we can talk about.

Lovedolphinsk wrote: ↑30 January 2026, 05:36 I agree -it happens to me at least 30% of the time

I analyzed the last 3 games you played, namely #798245245, #797716407 and #797704056.

In these 3 games the robber was placed 30 times on a numbered hex and not a single time (!) this number was rolled instantly afterwards!
The exact numbers are 9:0, 7:0, 14:0, respectively.

Please tell us which games you were talking about - where the event "blocked number gets rolled immediately afterwards" is happening 30% of all time.

If you had claimed 0% in your games, then I would have needed to analyze further - and I am sure that this specific event would have averaged out somewhere between 10-15%, as it should be. Claiming 30% is rather bold and surely shows bad judgement.

euklid314 wrote: ↑30 January 2026, 14:34 In these 3 games the robber was placed 30 times on a numbered hex and not a single time (!) this number was rolled instantly afterwards!

Don't you think that's remarkable on itself?

Assuming the robber is placed on 6 or 8, it should have been rolled ~4 the times. Of course, the sample is too small to draw any conclusions.

Jellby wrote: ↑30 January 2026, 15:46

euklid314 wrote: ↑30 January 2026, 14:34 In these 3 games the robber was placed 30 times on a numbered hex and not a single time (!) this number was rolled instantly afterwards!

Don't you think that's remarkable on itself?

Assuming the robber is placed on 6 or 8, it should have been rolled ~4 the times. Of course, the sample is too small to draw any conclusions.

Haha, the conclusion of this thread will finally be that the number blocked by the robber is almost never rolled. This will change future tactics. Perhaps it is even best to block yourself in order not to help your opponents.

On a more serious note: Some of the blocked numbers were 11s and 3s, 10s and 4s,... (more often than you would normally do it). Nevertheless, the expected value should have been 2 or 3 occurrences, not 0. But as you said, the sample is small enough that 0 is quite a likely outcome.

Even the robber had been placed on 6 or 8 each time, that would just push the probability down
to strictly between ​ 1/89 ​ and ​ 1/88 : ​ ​ ​ Somewhat surprising, but it still wouldn't be very surprising.