Board Game Arena

FlyHappy wrote: ↑24 April 2026, 15:32 yeah... I am so not a conspiracy buff, and I think its funny how many players I've run across that are convinced of silly things like predetermined outcomes and such....

buuuuuut... yeah, my anecodtal experience with that 3 position card (reroll one or two die), gives me the distinct impression of results that don't feel random.

I do understand probability, and I have faith that the very same software function/procedure is being used (as any other roll), but it's awfully hard to shake the impression I get when I use that card.

I guess what I am saying is that I am unable square "what I think", with "what I feel".
This has led me to avoid that card more then I should... though I keep trying to push thru that, and select it when tactically beneficial...

Corny Cornmeal wrote: ↑15 June 2026, 00:15 REROLL 1 die and -
Get the same number - 16.67% of the time....
______

REROLL 1 die 6 times and -
EXPECT to Get the same number 1 time....

BUT DON'T BET ON IT......!
Exactly ThaT happens 40% of the time....!

34% of the time - Get ZERO of the same number -
26% of the time - Get the same number MORE than Once.
____

Reroll 1 die 60 times and -
EXPECT to Get the same number 10 times....

BUT DON'T BET ON IT.....!
ThaT happens 13.7% of the time...!

44.6% of the time - Get the same number LESS than 10 times.
41.7% of the time - Get the same number MORE than 10 times...
______

SO WHEN DO RARE PATTERNS BECOME SUSPECT..?

Reroll 1 die 60 times and -
Get the same number 20 {or more} times ?
--- DOUBLE the Expected count ...! ---
IS ThaT Suspect ?

It's ODD, ...True.. but...
Not ThaT far out on the bell curve...

Get the same number 20 {or more} times... 1/8th of 1% of the time...

For Comparison
ThaT IS AS RARE AS A STRAIGHT FLUSH IN 5-CARD POKER HAND...
__________

On any Individual game,
Reroll 1 die 12 times and -
Get the same number 4 (or more) times....!
--- DOUBLE the Expected count ...! ---
IS ThaT Suspect ?

Hmmm... ThaT happens 1/8 th of the time ..!
_______

Now when DOES this get suspicious... ?

SHOULD THAT 1/8th EVENT HAPPEN - SAY 3 GAMES OUT OF 4 ...WOULD THAT {finally} BE SUSPICIOUS..?

ThaT is 6x More Likely Than .... the 20 out of 60 Reroll scenario (the Straight Flush scenario)......
___________

IF 8 INDIVIDUAL GAMES ARE PLAYED & 1 DIE IS REROLLED 12 TIMES IN EACH GAME &
Get the same number 4 (or more) times in 6 OR MORE of THOSE 8 GAMES...
THEN
OK (finally) - ODDS ARE UNDER 1 IN 10,000 .... a bit more RARE than a Royal Flush....[Royal Flush 1 / 7,000}


For Comparison..
1 / 10,000 People can do one-arm pull ups....
...

Charles Marlow wrote: ↑15 June 2026, 22:01 Now do the math for 2 dice rolling the exact same result. then the math of those 2 dice rerolling the exact same result again.

Charles Marlow wrote: ↑15 June 2026, 22:01 Now do the math for 2 dice rolling the exact same result. then the math of those 2 dice rerolling the exact same result again.