Round 5 has started everywhere now, and it's a question of hours before we know the names of the first semifinalists ! Some of you might ask : "Why so soon ? " And I will answer : "because some non eligible players managed to reach round 6, and therefore, they "offer" a "free" ticket to their opponent, like ja900330 in the China Standard Time tournament, or donchdonch in both Central European 2 and Eastern 1 !
No one in Eastern Standard Time 2 ? No one has reached round 6 at the time I'm writing... but ...
Let's have a look at this tournament. EST2 is one of the two "incomplete" qualifying tournaments (with Europe4). This tournament opened a week before the start, and gathered "only" 358 players on the 512 expected. It's not full, but it's not empty neither. With 358 players engaged, this tournament still offer 8 tickets for semifinals. Some players saw here a good opportunity to have an easier way to the semifinal. Were they right ? We'll have a little part of the answer while looking at the journey of the seeds.
So ? Was it easier for them to reach round 5 ?
The answer is ... NO !!!
Like every other tournaments, seeds have known defeats here too ! Only five of them are still in the run for a place in semifinal : seeds 1. thekid, 3. ExaltedAngel ; 4. Qorlas ; 6. MadManMark and 8. onyx puffin.
Seed n°1, thekid seems to unfold his path towards the semifinal. A bye in round 1, then two clear victories : 117 - 14 then 120 - 98 and a kick in round 4 (the game was close to the end, 107 moves had been made, thekid chose to expel his opponent rather than to claim another real victory. Difficult to say it was by impatience, willingness to ensure qualification, habit, fear of losing... Anyway, he applied one of the tournament rule to reach the next level )...
Finally, thekid arrived in round 5 with only 2 victories, and had to face a player with only 231 ELO, Sommer Dusk of Roses. But, at this stage of the tournament, no one can be here by accident. Could Sommer Dusk of Roses create the surprise against one of the highest ELO player in the whole tournament (755) ? He might have, but he didn't. thekid played his game with seriousness and assurance and claimed a large victory : 125 - 62.
thekid is now in round 6, and therefore he only needs one more victory to attend the semifinal !

thekid will have to win a 4th game to be a semifinalist... or maybe he won't.
thekid seems to be quite lucky in this event.... his two potential opponents in round 6 are both non eligible players :
chee18 registered in 3 tournaments ; Quickthinker in 4 ! Whatever happens, even if thekid was to lose his round 6 game, he will be called to replace chee18 or Quickthinker. Therefore, thekid is the first known semifinalist ! Congratulations to him !
The 4 other seeds still in haven't completed their round 5 now ! They are all facing players with a ELO below 400, and are therefore the big favorites... but there's still danger here ! We saw in other tournaments that lots of seeds who underestimated their opponents have been surprised and went out. For instance, MariskaZoeten, ExaltedAngel's opponent, is only 361 ELO, but with a winning ratio of 71%. The same goes for Avelache, MadManMark's opponent, who is quite experienced with Ticket to Ride : 605 games on BGA, 75% wins... It won't be easy for ExaltedAngel and MadManMark to reach round 6 !
Qorlas and onyx puffin looked a little more favored in their table : onyx puffin's opponent, PlatypusTensei only presents a 47 % victory ratio, with a 236 ELO... while Qorlas's opponent, L-D only displays 18 wins in 41 games, and a ELO below 200... But ! That does not mean that it will be easy for seeds 4 and 8 !

Qorlas seems to have the easiest match in this 5th round... but probabilities do not ensure victory and he will have to play a good game to win.
If PlatypusTensei and L-D managed to reach round 4, that means that they must play at a higher level than what their records show, and Qorlas and onyx puffin will have to stay focus during the game if they don't want to add their names to the long list of seeds who have been kicked out of the tournament !
In this list, we found three seeds coming from this tournament. And one of them really is a big surprise ! One of the favourite of this 20th Anniversary, a player with a great experience, well known by the top players community, whose ELO (740) was one of the highest of all contestants was facing an absolutely unknown player : only 16 games played on BGA ... and only 7 wins for a 222 ELO. The conclusion of the game seemed clear... and yet, bunger took the better of admitted 104 - 101 ! A very tight game, where admitted come close to the victory, but had a dead ticket that cost him 8 points... bunger did a good job blocking admitted's route in the south, forgetting to compete for the longest path, but claiming Miami / New Orleans / Houston... and thus forcing admitted to lose time and trains by Atlanta and Litlle Rock, time and trains that he missed to link Duluth to Houston.

Bunger surprised admitted in round 3, but it seems not like a lucky shot, as he's still in the tournament 2 games later. He will be one of the 16 last players in this tournament... and maybe one of the semifinalist if he wins his round 6 !
For seed 5. Docent, the story was quite similar, yet even shorter. After a bye in round 5, he faced a quite unexperienced player for his first game in round 2 : BL_1996, ELO 172. A destination blocked, 20 points loss, and a defeat... A nice feat for BL_1996, but not the same nice ending than Bunger's, as he left the tournament the round after.
And finally, seed 7. Agood314 had a tough game against a player who had almost no TTR game played on BGA before this tournament... only 4 games, 3 wins... enough to reach ELO 100 and fulfill the requirements to register... but this must hide a good experience in real games, as riche739 did not lose any of his 5 games in this tournament : 5 games, 5 wins, and one against a very experienced player. It seems impossible that he's just discovered the game. Anyway, he made a perfect roue till now, and he's just one win away from qualification !

Will riche379 be one of the many surprised guests expected in the semifinals ?