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Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Posted: 09 October 2026, 00:22
by mizzou95
Update on my doubles rate in COB on BGA:
Still well over 17% so I decided to go back and look at all my games and calculate total. 17.25% over 3900 games or 97000+ rolls. Stats say possibility of one in 1.18 million. To all the stats nerds: when do I start thinking there is a problem with the BGA randomized program? Or is there something * going on with the integrity of BGA in how they treat players?
Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Posted: 09 October 2026, 00:43
by FrankJones
mizzou95 wrote: ↑09 October 2026, 00:22
Update on my doubles rate in COB on BGA:
Still well over 17% so I decided to go back and look at all my games and calculate total. 17.25% over 3900 games or 97000+ rolls. Stats say possibility of one in 1.18 million. To all the stats nerds: when do I start thinking there is a problem with the BGA randomized program? Or is there something * going on with the integrity of BGA in how they treat players?
You manually reviewed 3900 games move by move and counted the numbers of doubles rolled?
Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Posted: 09 October 2026, 00:45
by lefalaf
FrankJones wrote: ↑09 October 2026, 00:43
mizzou95 wrote: ↑09 October 2026, 00:22
Update on my doubles rate in COB on BGA:
Still well over 17% so I decided to go back and look at all my games and calculate total. 17.25% over 3900 games or 97000+ rolls. Stats say possibility of one in 1.18 million. To all the stats nerds: when do I start thinking there is a problem with the BGA randomized program? Or is there something * going on with the integrity of BGA in how they treat players?
You manually reviewed 3900 games move by move and counted the numbers of doubles rolled?
I doubt it too. I'm not about to trust someone to take the time to do that, and be honest about the results, who cannot even find the time, or respect for other players, to play their moves on time. Tons of time issues on their profile.
Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Posted: 09 October 2026, 00:47
by FrankJones
The game has been played 4.5 million times, and the "all players' results show 16.67% doubles.
With 4.5 million games played, there will be some players whose doubles rate is above or below expectation.
If you think the game programmer inserted some insidious code to cheat some sub-group of players, I have a couple of quesrtions:
1) Which about you or your account would get you included in a sub-group of players targeted by this hypothetical insidious cheat programming?
2) Have you checked other players with similar demographics / Elo / age of account / whatever, to see whether they are affected by this alleged cheat programming?
[ Keep in mind, all of this ignores the repeatedly stated fact that the displayed statistics only refer to the last X games, where X is, I believe, 500].
(This is why I asked whether the OP manually counted the doubles in 3900 games.)
Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Posted: 09 October 2026, 01:24
by tbhp
lefalaf wrote: ↑09 October 2026, 00:45
I doubt it too. I'm not about to trust someone to take the time to do that, and be honest about the results, who cannot even find the time, or respect for other players, to play their moves on time. Tons of time issues on their profile.
Those two things have nothing to do with each other though. People can be undisciplined in the way they treat other people, but very disciplined when it comes to the things they care about.
Also, going in the red 19 times in 500+ games is hardly some terrible treatment of other players.
Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Posted: 09 October 2026, 02:02
by mizzou95
FrankJones wrote: ↑09 October 2026, 00:47
The game has been played 4.5 million times, and the "all players' results show 16.67% doubles.
So Frank, I have a question for you: when would you start to doubt the integrity of the randomized? 1 in a million chance. one in Quadrillion chance? When do you find it to be suspect?
With 4.5 million games played, there will be some players whose doubles rate is above or below expectation.
If you think the game programmer inserted some insidious code to cheat some sub-group of players, I have a couple of quesrtions:
1) Which about you or your account would get you included in a sub-group of players targeted by this hypothetical insidious cheat programming?
2) Have you checked other players with similar demographics / Elo / age of account / whatever, to see whether they are affected by this alleged cheat programming?
[ Keep in mind, all of this ignores the repeatedly stated fact that the displayed statistics only refer to the last X games, where X is, I believe, 500].
(This is why I asked whether the OP manually counted the doubles in 3900 games.)
Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Posted: 09 October 2026, 02:05
by mizzou95
"Tons of time issues on their profile.". LOL! I'm not about to trust anyone that is nerdy enough to check "time issues" on their " profile." I don't even know WTF you're talking about. LOL!
lefalaf wrote: ↑09 October 2026, 00:45
[quote=FrankJones post_id=269529 time=1791502998 user_id=16351
mizzou95 wrote: ↑09 October 2026, 00:22
Update on my doubles rate in COB on BGA:
Still well over 17% so I decided to go back and look at all my games and calculate total. 17.25% over 3900 games or 97000+ rolls. Stats say possibility of one in 1.18 million. To all the stats nerds: when do I start thinking there is a problem with the BGA randomized program? Or is there something * going on with the integrity of BGA in how they treat players?
You manually reviewed 3900 games move by move and counted the numbers of doubles rolled?
I doubt it too. I'm not about to trust someone to take the time to do that, and be honest about the results, who cannot even find the time, or respect for other players, to play their moves on time. Tons of time issues on their profile.
[/quote]
Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Posted: 09 October 2026, 02:36
by FrankJones
?
Did you intend to block quote my entire post without writing anything in response? I'm confused.
The question remains un-answered. Did you actually manually review 3900 games and count the results of 97,000 dice rolls?
Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Posted: 09 October 2026, 03:20
by lefalaf
tbhp wrote: ↑09 October 2026, 01:24
Also, going in the red 19 times in 500+ games is hardly some terrible treatment of other players.
Well, someone shouldn't play 508 games in 60 days if they cannot keep up on them.
Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Posted: 09 October 2026, 03:24
by lefalaf
mizzou95 wrote: ↑09 October 2026, 02:05
"Tons of time issues on their profile.". LOL! I'm not about to trust anyone that is nerdy enough to check "time issues" on their " profile." I don't even know WTF you're talking about. LOL!
You are hilarious. Yes I am nerdy (and probably most of us players are). But I find it funny to be called nerdy that I clicked my mouse and glanced at your reputation in the same thread where you claim to have stepped through 3900 games.
