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Giordano Bruno 1974
Posts: 225
Joined: 28 April 2020, 19:56

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Giordano Bruno 1974 »

It's worth bearing in mind that any series of dice rolls is highly improbable to occur.

It's like hitting a golf ball, it's highly unlikely to land on this bit of grass or that bit of turf or even in this bit of sand but it's got to land somewhere.

It's only when you analyse a big set of data that it starts to get meaningful.
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CaractacusPots
Posts: 90
Joined: 31 August 2020, 18:08

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by CaractacusPots »

Tisaac wrote: 05 September 2020, 21:21That's uncommon, about 1/2000 probability, but far from rare and happens every day since about 2000 tables are played each day.
And agin, statistical analysis from only ONE game means nothing, and in particular not with such an event that if far from a miracle.
ok

So here's the next game

My first three dice rolls

ALL 63

That's a 1 in 5832

Only 48 dice rolls in the game

Yep nothing to see here folks, move on
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Tisaac
Posts: 2736
Joined: 26 August 2014, 21:28

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Tisaac »

????
Did you read the previous answer ??
ALL sequences are highly improbable to occur, no matter what the sequence consist of. You need to do analysis on AGGREGATED data .
You are complaining when there arent many doubles and when there are many doubles. What did you expect ? Some kind of results with a 0 variance ?
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Giordano Bruno 1974
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Joined: 28 April 2020, 19:56

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Giordano Bruno 1974 »

Indeed. Three sevens is the most common outcome of three dice rolls. And even that is 1 in 216.
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Jest Phulin
Posts: 1856
Joined: 08 July 2013, 21:50

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Jest Phulin »

CaractacusPots wrote: 05 September 2020, 21:01
Me Opp
55 66
44 66
55 --
33 --
44 --
11 --

14 throws, 8 of them doubles
Hm, so assuming that you are the better player (as you have claimed several times that you excel at this game), why is the better player getting three times as many doubles than the weaker player if rolls are to level the wins?
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CaractacusPots
Posts: 90
Joined: 31 August 2020, 18:08

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by CaractacusPots »

Giordano Bruno 1974 wrote: 05 September 2020, 23:39 Indeed. Three sevens is the most common outcome of three dice rolls. And even that is 1 in 216.
Rather big difference between 1 in 216 and 1 in 5832
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CaractacusPots
Posts: 90
Joined: 31 August 2020, 18:08

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by CaractacusPots »

Jest Phulin wrote: 05 September 2020, 23:48 why is the better player getting three times as many doubles than the weaker player if rolls are to level the wins?
Perhaps because it matters when in the game the doubles occur
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Jest Phulin
Posts: 1856
Joined: 08 July 2013, 21:50

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Jest Phulin »

CaractacusPots wrote: 05 September 2020, 23:54
Jest Phulin wrote: 05 September 2020, 23:48 why is the better player getting three times as many doubles than the weaker player if rolls are to level the wins?
Perhaps because it matters when in the game the doubles occur
So in the game, there was never a time when you were on the bar and your opponent had either the 1, 3, 4, or 5 blocked? By your theory that would have been the time to use those rolls, so they wouldn't have been sitting around at the end of the game.
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Giordano Bruno 1974
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Joined: 28 April 2020, 19:56

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by Giordano Bruno 1974 »

CaractacusPots wrote: 05 September 2020, 23:51
Giordano Bruno 1974 wrote: 05 September 2020, 23:39 Indeed. Three sevens is the most common outcome of three dice rolls. And even that is 1 in 216.
Rather big difference between 1 in 216 and 1 in 5832
Depends how you look at it. If it's 5-2, 4-3 and 6-1. That's 1 in 5832.

In fact any specific set of six dice throws is 1 in 5832.

Hit a golf ball and it's got to land somewhere.
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CaractacusPots
Posts: 90
Joined: 31 August 2020, 18:08

Re: "dubious" luck

Post by CaractacusPots »

Giordano Bruno 1974 wrote: 06 September 2020, 00:05 Depends how you look at it. If it's 5-2, 4-3 and 6-1. That's 1 in 5832.

In fact any specific set of six dice throws is 1 in 5832.

Hit a golf ball and it's got to land somewhere.
This argument is puerile. Basically it says it doesnt matter how the dice fall because its all possible.

But it does matter
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