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Re: "dubious" luck
Posted: 05 September 2020, 22:06
by Giordano Bruno 1974
It's worth bearing in mind that any series of dice rolls is highly improbable to occur.
It's like hitting a golf ball, it's highly unlikely to land on this bit of grass or that bit of turf or even in this bit of sand but it's got to land somewhere.
It's only when you analyse a big set of data that it starts to get meaningful.
Re: "dubious" luck
Posted: 05 September 2020, 23:13
by CaractacusPots
Tisaac wrote: ↑05 September 2020, 21:21That's uncommon, about 1/2000 probability, but far from rare and happens every day since about 2000 tables are played each day.
And agin, statistical analysis from only ONE game means nothing, and in particular not with such an event that if far from a miracle.
ok
So here's the next game
My first three dice rolls
ALL 63
That's a 1 in 5832
Only 48 dice rolls in the game
Yep nothing to see here folks, move on
Re: "dubious" luck
Posted: 05 September 2020, 23:20
by Tisaac
????
Did you read the previous answer ??
ALL sequences are highly improbable to occur, no matter what the sequence consist of. You need to do analysis on AGGREGATED data .
You are complaining when there arent many doubles and when there are many doubles. What did you expect ? Some kind of results with a 0 variance ?
Re: "dubious" luck
Posted: 05 September 2020, 23:39
by Giordano Bruno 1974
Indeed. Three sevens is the most common outcome of three dice rolls. And even that is 1 in 216.
Re: "dubious" luck
Posted: 05 September 2020, 23:48
by Jest Phulin
CaractacusPots wrote: ↑05 September 2020, 21:01
Me Opp
55 66
44 66
55 --
33 --
44 --
11 --
14 throws, 8 of them doubles
Hm, so assuming that you are the better player (as you have claimed several times that you excel at this game), why is the better player getting three times as many doubles than the weaker player if rolls are to level the wins?
Re: "dubious" luck
Posted: 05 September 2020, 23:51
by CaractacusPots
Giordano Bruno 1974 wrote: ↑05 September 2020, 23:39
Indeed. Three sevens is the most common outcome of three dice rolls. And even that is 1 in 216.
Rather big difference between 1 in 216 and 1 in 5832
Re: "dubious" luck
Posted: 05 September 2020, 23:54
by CaractacusPots
Jest Phulin wrote: ↑05 September 2020, 23:48
why is the better player getting three times as many doubles than the weaker player if rolls are to level the wins?
Perhaps because it matters when in the game the doubles occur
Re: "dubious" luck
Posted: 06 September 2020, 00:01
by Jest Phulin
CaractacusPots wrote: ↑05 September 2020, 23:54
Jest Phulin wrote: ↑05 September 2020, 23:48
why is the better player getting three times as many doubles than the weaker player if rolls are to level the wins?
Perhaps because it matters when in the game the doubles occur
So in the game, there was
never a time when you were on the bar and your opponent had either the 1, 3, 4, or 5 blocked? By your theory that would have been the time to use those rolls, so they wouldn't have been sitting around at the end of the game.
Re: "dubious" luck
Posted: 06 September 2020, 00:05
by Giordano Bruno 1974
CaractacusPots wrote: ↑05 September 2020, 23:51
Giordano Bruno 1974 wrote: ↑05 September 2020, 23:39
Indeed. Three sevens is the most common outcome of three dice rolls. And even that is 1 in 216.
Rather big difference between 1 in 216 and 1 in 5832
Depends how you look at it. If it's 5-2, 4-3 and 6-1. That's 1 in 5832.
In fact any specific set of six dice throws is 1 in 5832.
Hit a golf ball and it's got to land somewhere.
Re: "dubious" luck
Posted: 06 September 2020, 00:32
by CaractacusPots
Giordano Bruno 1974 wrote: ↑06 September 2020, 00:05
Depends how you look at it. If it's 5-2, 4-3 and 6-1. That's 1 in 5832.
In fact any specific set of six dice throws is 1 in 5832.
Hit a golf ball and it's got to land somewhere.
This argument is puerile. Basically it says it doesnt matter how the dice fall because its all possible.
But it does matter