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is it ok, that 4th game in a row my opps have 1st turn? or i am so unlucky.

LoinduFroid wrote: ↑04 February 2025, 12:59 is it ok, that 4th game in a row my opps have 1st turn? or i am so unlucky.

Just unlucky! Odds are 6.25% so in a field of 60 people, there are 3-4 people who probably got 4 games in a row going 2nd! You just have to hope you get good tickets or lots of locos to make up for it.

Unlucky I confirm ! It seems that luck is a factor to take into account when starting a TTR game... destination tickets, start, locomotives, colors... So many things can go wrong that a bit of luck is needed... even if luck is not the only parameter to determine the winner in the end.

Let's see who were the lucky ones of the past two days. Some players were eager to play their 5th game of the semifinal, like Olimpionik and Trainalot, who were the first to end their game. Theses two 3 - 1 players had some pressure on them at this key moment of the semifinals, with more games played than to be played. Staying in the upper part of the standings seems crucial now, knowing that the first tiebreaker is the sum of opponents'victories. Staying high in the ranking means confronting players with many victories... and then rising up one's tiebreaker !

Both Trainalot and Olimpionik met their first loss in round 4... how did they react to it ? Which one bounced back to the top of the ranking ?
Olimpionik drew two eastern tickets : Boston - Miami (not a very prized one) and Montreal - New Orleans. No surprise, he left Boston - Miami aside, to keep LA - Chicago instead.
We talked about luck earlier... and here luck seems to be fatecious... Trainalot started with LA - Miami... and ... Toronto - Miami !!!!! All Miami tickets in the players'hands... And here, Trainalot kept both of them, as his third ticket was also an eastern one : Dallas - NY ! The eastern part of the map might be the centre of a position battle in this game.
But luck also wanted to create some imbalance here, giving the start and 8 locomotives to Olimpionik while Trainalot got only.... one ! With so few locomotives, Trainalot lacked flexibility... and had to draw early in the river to complete his colors. He could do nothing to prevent Olimpionik from claiming LA - El Paso (with 1 loco) and had to play where he had the 6 train cards : Duluth - Helena... and then Helena - Toronto. But while he was playing in the centre, Olimpionik was closing the gates around LA !!!!



With Trainalot so strong in the north, Olimpionik chose to forget about Montreal - New Orleans, and to focus on disturbing Trainalot's track, spending for instance 4 locomotives for Helena - Seattle, or claiming Denver - Santa Fe to definitely end all hopes to link LA...
With a nice track in the south, a nice 92 pts before last turn (83 for Trainalot), but a 13 points dead ticket and the longest path for your opponent, what would you do ?



Olimpionik could have bet on the fact that Trainalot was aiming LA, and that he had a dead ticket too... but that was not a certainty... and that can explain why he chose to go for a third ticket in his last move ! LA - Seattle, LA - Helena and Duluth - El Paso... only west that he could not validate. - 8 pts ! That could have transformed his winning position in a cruel loss.... but finaly not. His successful block on LA cost too much to Trainalot (-20 pts) and Olimpionik got a close win : 87 - 83 !

Thanks to this 4th victory, Olimpionik took back his seat at the topmost of the standings (pending the conclusion of the duel Elric_S - G7 womble).

Soon after, another player won is 4th victory in this Swiss tournament, and this one is a little more surprising. To see some american players in the upper part of the standing was expected. USA brought 9 representatives in the semifinal; and some of them were amongst the big favorites for a ticket to Paris : ommie32, Pacific's champion ; scorps 4, Pacific's finalist ; thekid, N°2 ELO of the tournament ; or even onyx puffin or MadManMark, real experienced players who could have a chance to end in the 8 finalists. And yet... the actual american leader in the standing is .... nyan-cat !
With a ELO below 600, nyan-cat did not get as many attention as his compatriots at the start of the tournament. And yet, he is (for now) the one with the best record after 5 rounds ! Was he very lucky with the random pairing ? Did he get "easy" matches ? NO ! He won against Gattivo4, semifinalist of the Pacific Tournament, chooosen, winner of the CET2 tournament, and acebano, finalist of the CET1 !
For his fourth game, he was facing dandee15, semifinalist of the CET1, leader of the italian squad with his 3 - 1 record, and ELO above 700.... and he was playing against the start, with a pair of tickets that did not seem so attractive : NY - Atlanta ; Helena - LA.... and he soon discovered that playing both tickets could not work, when a fierce battle around LA started. Dandee15 tried to take control of the south, and almost succeeded, but his track got cut in two parts, leaving the longest path to nyan-cat.
Thanks to 8 locomotives, nyan-cat had the flexibility needed to claim big routes, for big points, while dandee15 lost time in small routes to complete both his tickets : Winnipeg - Houston and LA - Chicago. The competition around the same spots gave a very interesting game here, with a very close ending ! 106 - 100.



nyan-cat had his 4th victory, and will be one of the 11 (or 12) players to got so many after round 5. And one of the 2 best american players too, as only ommie32 and scorps4 still have a chance to win a 4th victory (and they are facing each other)....
The tournament is not easy for our US players, mostly for thekid who was their n°1 ELO, and who faced a 4th defeat against MorientesZL. With a 1 - 4 record at the end of round 5, a place in the 8 seems almost impossible to reach now.
It's not so badly engaged for onyx puffin, but his third defeat against Niall also leaves him in the bottom part of the standings.... A 2 -3 record leaves hope, but it also means that defeat is now unacceptable.
Fortunately, other american players had a better 5th round. After nyan-cat, zabergau and MadManMark also won their games, granting them a 3 -2 record that makes everything possible.


And that's all for our focus on american players. Let's mention two other results before leaving you here... Two of the initial favorites, whose first half of the tournament did not go as expected, have brought back to life the hope of being in Paris at the end of the semifinals. Loindufroid and smartin23 won their second game, against sheepwin10 and Gattivo4... A 2 - 3 record is still inconvenient, but they still have a chance to end in the upper part of the standings... if they keep winning !

It's not the same for bunger and Mac-Leod, our two unfortunate players, who met their 5th loss against chucrute2000 and Mihails (again a little 2 pts loss defeat for bunger !!!!) ... Qualifying for Paris is no longer an option... but they must not focus on this, as they still have 4 games to prove that their place in the semifinal is not a coincidence... Ending with a 4 - 5 record cannot lead to Paris, but it's still a valuable goal.

See you in a few days for the other part of this 5th round.

if players are of approximately the same level then luck plays a big role. One match against an opponent is not an indicator. I had luck with tickets against Morientes. But I lost yesterday against great tickets and 8 locomotives. Even without the fact that my opponent is a pretty strong player, but the element of luck contributed to the victory

Thanks cannonade for your comment ! I really appreciate when players take time to participate here (it makes me feel that I'm not alone here, and that there might be one or two players who takes time to read my texts ) Moreover, that brings some clarification from real expert players to some of my approximations !

First, let's salute the performance of our two leaders Cournot and G7 womble, who both succeeded in winning their 5th game. They are the only players undefeated in this semifinal, and they might start thinking about what they are going to put in their suitcase ! Not yet... It might still be a bit too soon to organize their trip to Paris... We saw in this tournament that up and down can altern fast, and a 5 - 4 record would probably not allow a french tour... but... they will face each other in round 6... and the winner will be in perfect position to earn his/her ticket to Paris.

G7 womble VS Cournot

G7 womble will be n°1 of the standings for the second time after her victory against Elric_S. It ended in a 132 - 118 that does not reflect fully the tension of the game, as explained by G7 womble herself :

i shivered all game and it only got better the last 3 moves (...) I was until the end afraid that I lose 1 ticket and cant get longest

She had a nice pair of tickets (LA - Chicago and Vancouver - Santa Fé : 29 pts), but could not find the colors she expected, and was afraid that Elric_S managed to block her. With slower destinations (San Francisco - Atlanta) and without the start, Elric_S was not in the best position to claim the victory...



but... he coud have found a small opening to get it... There was a nice moment of chat at the end of the game, and Elric_S and G7 womble took time to analyze key moments :

well... finally, maybe there was a very tiny path to the win... in a quick finish and sacrify my tix...

A tiny path saw by Elric_S... but the game had already ended, and he faced his first defeat in this tournament ! But with a 4 -1 record, he is still in a very good position for a place in finale.



On his side, Cournot defeated cannonade 134 - 116, with some comments made by cannonade just ahead this post. Cournot indeed had a nice combo : Calgary - Phoenix and Vancouver - Montreal, and he is a very experienced player (ELO 773 ! the second highest of the tournament), that knows how to handle his game with such tickets.



Two very beautiful tracks drawn by cannonade and Cournot, 44 trains on the map for both of them, and none outside their longest path, but the blue one was more lucrative : + 6 with claimed routes, + 12 with completed destinations !

With a perfect start, 5 - 0, he reached the second place of the ranking (his tie-breaker is a bit lower than G7 womble's)... but he could reach the top should he win against G7 womble in round 6. This top match will leave only one player undefeated. A kind of finale before the finale for our two leaders ! Good luck for both of you...


And what happened behind them ? Who are the players in ambush behind our two leaders ?
- Schwen84 and ExaltedAngel disputed a very exciting game, with high scores and a tense finish : 136 - 132 for Schwen84. He is the second player from Germany in the top8, and still the n°1 ELO.

- scorps4 took his revenge on ommie32 ! He lost against her in the Pacific Tournament's finale, but he made it even here (and maybe at the most important time as a place in Paris might be a greater reward than a victory in a qualifying tournament). He is the second american player to sign a 4 - 1 start (with nyan-cat). Ommie32 joins ExaltedAngel, and many more, in the middle part of the standings... a dangerous place, where you can be opposed to other very strong players at a time when defeat must be avoided at all cost !

- pegaso74 continued his winning streak ! Let's remind that he had the bad luck to start against G7 womble in round 1... that he lost this game (as all other players who faced our n°1)... but, since then, he won 4 games in a row ! In round 5, he was facing olihelm, a contestant that had many feats in our tournament... But pegaso74 left him no chance here : 115 - 78

- BalduvianHorde was not presented as the n°1 of the italian squad, and yet, he is the only one to present a 4 - 1 record after his clean victory against diger74 : 114 - 81.

- LeGoupil tried the San Francisco - Atlanta and LA - NY against Nicolas21, and it worked : 141 - 120 ! LeGoupil is the second french player to get a 4 - 1 record (with Elric_S)... and yet, he was not favored by the random draw of his opponents as he faced three tournaments winners : will_will (for his only defeat) , chooosen and Knockando ! A very nice run in this tournament for LeGoupil, who can be sure to face another serious opponent in round 6 !

- And finally, the last 4 -1 player is ... Sunny369. As pegaso74, he started with a loss that left him in the lower part of the standings... but pursued his tournament with 3 victories in a row against some of the tier 5 players : chucrute2000 ; EBLCar and lalozzz... so he climbed the steps quite discretly... until his last game against daedin28, a very strong spanish player and a first real test for Sunny369... a conclusive test for our Hong Kong player who won 121 - 107, proving that he could also win against 650+ ELO players.


For now, there are then 11 players with at least 4 wins... they will be 6 with at least 5 wins after round 6... the qualifying level is getting close for those players. That means that there won't be many room left for players below them in the standings ! For now, there are 19 players (and soon 20 after the end of will_will vs Batze) with a 3 - 2 record, and among them we find some of the initial favorites like tournaments'champions ExaltedAngel, ommie32, chooosen and Eichi05, like 700+ ELO players cannonade (735), Nicolas21 (727), Trainalot (713), Sysyphus (710) and dandee15 (708), and many other top players that we habe presented here (MorientesZL, Qorlas, MadManMark, Diger74, Olihelm, ....) Some big duels are waiting those "middle-part's residents", and the random draw might lead to some very difficult situations !
That is the promise of some high tension games in round 6, with the pressure of games that will part between the full of hope upper half of the standings and the complicated situation of stagnating in the bottom half... with a very very small chance of being in Paris in May !

If you are an attentive reader, you might have noticed the absence of three of our qualifying champions in the upper part of the standing... As incredible as it seems, those top players who managed to stay undefeated during all the qualifying phase are now facing uttermost difficulties in the semifinals ! It had started well yet for SuperPello, with 2 victories in his first two games... for a 11 streak. And then he met G7 womble... for his first loss in this 20th Anniversary tournament. From this moment, everything started to go wrong : a second defeat against Diger64, and now a third against mr_snuffelupagus, who managed to complete San Francisco - Atlanta and Portland - Nashville for 34 pts with almost all the western 6. And yet, SuperPello was only 3 points behind... sometimes, things don't go as it could.

Same goes for Knockandon who was only 4 points behind chooose in this duel between CET3 and CET2 champions. A duel that honoured the expectations with a very close game. I let the privilege to comment the game to chooosen :

I started, 5 vs 5 locos, Both low point tickets (as I expected on Knockado)
Interesting start of the game, as blue cards was visible + the only one orange
Knockando had missluck in cards, tried to block me with additional black card (after putting 6x blacks with 2 locos)..
Blocking was successful, but gave me a chance to win longest route prize and quicker pace (9 claims + 1 last one)

And there is Micalis, who suffered a big defeat against nicoxiaozai 122 - 74 ! He started with a nice pair of destination tickets (Calgary - Salt Lake City and Winnipeg - Houston), but failed to secure his north/south connection. He started ensuring his positions in the south, then in the north, but saw his track cut in two by nicoxiaozai who had no difficulty to read his intentions ! nicoxiaozai, once his destinations were completed, saw where to play to block Micalis's track, preventing him from completing his tickets.



It's a bit surprising to see our three champions in the second half of the standing... It's not completely over for them, but with a 2 - 3 start, they have consumed all their "jokers" ! And the same goes for Loindufroid, smartin23 or onyx puffin... and we might not forget that fate could place these players one to one in round 6, and that would lead to the early elimination of one of them...

Speaking of elimination, it's nearly done for thekid and Gattivo4... with a 1 - 4 record at this stage of the semifinals, it seems quite impossible for them to keep a chance of being in Paris. But they still have a chance to end with a nicer sheet.

Round 6 starts in 36 hours, so do not hesitate to rest a little, and to prepare yourself for a very important game ! Good luck for all players !

@rwain

I do not follow the tournament closely but want to give you a compliment for the way you cover it.

Every time I come to this thread I think, I do not care much for the blow by blow analysis of the games. Although I recognise the expertise of that analysis.
But I get drawn in by the narrative of who is doing what in the rankings and have to gloss over your posts and so secondhandly am following this tournament in which I have no stake whatsoever

Kudos to you for luring me in and keeping me happy with your progress reports.

Thanks for the effort you put into this

@DrakeStorm
Thanx for your response. Let's see what happens next.

@Rwain
unfortunately there is no like/dislike button to give you instant feedback. and some people (like I am) prefer reading to writing. But I really appreciate what you do for TTR community.

Rwain wrote: ↑07 February 2025, 22:50First, let's salute the performance of our two leaders Cournot and G7 womble, who both succeeded in winning their 5th game. They are the only players undefeated in this semifinal, and they might start thinking about what they are going to put in their suitcase ! Not yet... It might still be a bit too soon to organize their trip to Paris... We saw in this tournament that up and down can altern fast, and a 5 - 4 record would probably not allow a french tour... but... they will face each other in round 6 ...

It's belatedly clicking for me that there will be exactly one player with a 6-0 record at the end of this round, and just 4 or 5 at 5-1. The remaining 54 players are guaranteed to be no better than 4-2. Did I do that math right?

MadManMark wrote: ↑09 February 2025, 23:38

Rwain wrote: ↑07 February 2025, 22:50First, let's salute the performance of our two leaders Cournot and G7 womble, who both succeeded in winning their 5th game. They are the only players undefeated in this semifinal, and they might start thinking about what they are going to put in their suitcase ! Not yet... It might still be a bit too soon to organize their trip to Paris... We saw in this tournament that up and down can altern fast, and a 5 - 4 record would probably not allow a french tour... but... they will face each other in round 6 ...

It's belatedly clicking for me that there will be exactly one player with a 6-0 record at the end of this round, and just 4 or 5 at 5-1. The remaining 54 players are guaranteed to be no better than 4-2. Did I do that math right?

1 player with 6-0 and 5-6 players with 5-1.
7 players are 4-1, and I assume they will play each other, so half will be 5-1.
There's already one player 5-1.
2 players are 5-0; one will be 6-0 and the other will be 5-1.

Cournot wrote: ↑10 February 2025, 01:121 player with 6-0 and 5-6 players with 5-1

Agreed, I undercounted by one. Six players 4-1 still to finish playing each other, so 3 will be 5-1, plus one 4-1 player paying vs 3-2 (scorps4 vs olihelm). Plus either you or G7 womble will be 5-1. That is 4-5 players, but then I forgot to add in Schwen84, who is already 5-1 (by creatively besting LeGoupil 7 hours ago)