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Re: Dice roll - many repeat rolls
Posted: 01 November 2022, 13:39
by muntzer
Going through it more thoroughly, yes - the odds of ANY number appearing five times in a row during a game of 100 rolls is:
0.000159% + 0.005081% + 0.038580% + 0.162577% + 0.496145% + 1.234568% + 0.496145% + 0.162577% + 0.038580% + 0.005081% + 0.000159% = 2.6397% or one in every 38 games.
Re: Dice roll - many repeat rolls
Posted: 01 November 2022, 13:52
by Romain672
Please stop personnal attack.
I proposed you to discuss in pm, I got no answer. Langage barrier can be pretty annoying.
It's the second time I got similar remark, so I suppose I use my words badly to explain what I do (but my calculation should be clear though, even if what I said can be missleading).
I will use random numbers on that post (that 4.32).
I'm just comparing things like '5 sevens in a row' with things like '4.32 sixies in a row'.
So when you said that you got '5 sevens in a row' in that game, it's similar to said that you got '4.32 sixies in a row' in my way of calculations.
Since you said having '5 sevens in a row' has a probability of 1.235%, I can now said that it's equal to roll '4.32 sixies in a row', and so if they would be fully independant (and they aren't, but that shouldn't change much the final result), I can take twice that probability of 1.235%. So doing 1-(1-0.01235)^2 which give 2.455% (so slightly less than 2.470%).
So I claim that rolling 5 sevens in a row or more, or rolling 4.32 sixies in a row or more has a probability of 2.470%.
On my previous post I did the same thing, but for all numbers.
Re: Dice roll - many repeat rolls
Posted: 01 November 2022, 21:10
by muntzer
I didn't reply because I went to bed. There are things called time zones.
I don't understand your calculations in your last post. Actually, I don't understand what you are trying to demonstrate at all.
I'm fine with anyone offering an alternative point of view. But it's annoying when someone dismisses my analysis without reading it properly, or without a strong grasp of the maths involved.
Re: Dice roll - many repeat rolls
Posted: 02 November 2022, 09:49
by Romain672
Again you repeat what I consider personal attack (and you lie I suppose not in purpose).
So let's stop here I suppose, don't wanna much goes deeper there.
edit: to try to not evenom the situation, I don't like myself using 'lie', I pm you way before all that, time zone doesn't matter. But I suppose you just didn't see my pm before a long time, not the first time i saws people seeing pm way later.
Re: Dice roll - many repeat rolls
Posted: 02 November 2022, 12:50
by Yoa77
Do something with the dice. They work completely against the theory of probability.
Re: Dice roll - many repeat rolls
Posted: 21 November 2024, 14:51
by CatRosa
I go further then say there's a glitch in the dice throw. I've been playing here since 2021.
True randomness is no more, and only very distracted players will say otherwise.
I'm not premium player, so I can't actually see statistics of the game to give you game numbers/stats.
However, in one game i placed my two inicial settlements on 3,4,8 and 11. The dice kept giving 3s and 11s in many more throws than all other numbers. This is not random.
And, on top of this, often, the robber would come out after i used and trade my resources and ended up having less than 8 cards, which meant that i didn't loose any resource (apart from being pick by the other player placing the robber).
So I go further than to say there is a glitch in the dice, to say that the algorithm actually favours one player per game.
Like I said, i've been using Board Game Arena since 2021 and I can see this in other games too. 7 Wonders arquitects, for example. How often one player is "so lucky" to pick exactly the card they need in their turns? And, like I said, myself included...
I suspect is something to do with trying to make the game more addictive somehow? Only a suspicion on this.. but that the dice throw in Catan is no longer truly random, that is easy to see.
And that makes the game boring for those who have to sit and wait for the player with "all the luck" to reach the winning points..
Please, developers, make dice throw and cards shuffle random again
Re: Dice roll - many repeat rolls
Posted: 21 November 2024, 16:26
by Shinobu Rei
CatRosa wrote: ↑21 November 2024, 14:51
I go further then say there's a glitch in the dice throw. I've been playing here since 2021.
True randomness is no more, and only very distracted players will say otherwise.
I'm not premium player, so I can't actually see statistics of the game to give you game numbers/stats.
However, in one game i placed my two inicial settlements on 3,4,8 and 11. The dice kept giving 3s and 11s in many more throws than all other numbers. This is not random.
And, on top of this, often, the robber would come out after i used and trade my resources and ended up having less than 8 cards, which meant that i didn't loose any resource (apart from being pick by the other player placing the robber).
So I go further than to say there is a glitch in the dice, to say that the algorithm actually favours one player per game.
Like I said, i've been using Board Game Arena since 2021 and I can see this in other games too. 7 Wonders arquitects, for example. How often one player is "so lucky" to pick exactly the card they need in their turns? And, like I said, myself included...
I suspect is something to do with trying to make the game more addictive somehow? Only a suspicion on this.. but that the dice throw in Catan is no longer truly random, that is easy to see.
And that makes the game boring for those who have to sit and wait for the player with "all the luck" to reach the winning points..
Please, developers, make dice throw and cards shuffle random again
Rolling 3s and 11s a lot doesn't mean it's not random. I'd say it's actually an argument in favor of randomness. Even though statistically 7s are more likely, "likely" doesn't mean it's certain and randomness allows other numbers to get rolled.
Programming the game to favor one player to encourage addiction doesn't make sense. The turning point of addiction is in anticipation. Studies find that dopamine is at its highest right before the roll that determines your win/loss. If you know for certain you're the only one that's gonna do well, then there's no more anticipation and as you said would be boring which is the opposite effect.
So while rolls are improbable, they're not impossible. Mathematically, there's someone in the universe that's unlucky enough to never get their numbers rolled in a game. It's hard to fathom but it's technically possible.
Re: Dice roll - many repeat rolls
Posted: 21 November 2024, 19:55
by CatRosa
English is not my 1st language so sorry if it was not clear.
Having a few dice throws of 3s and 11s in one game: random.
Having most of dice throws coming out 3s and 11s in one game: not random.
Particularly, when only one player have settlements on those tiles and, once blocked, 12s starting to roll (the other tiles their settlements/cities were).. That is just too much to be considered random.
And, this has been noticed by dozens of people I played with. It is that obvious.
As to addiction, I said was just a suspicion as I'm not an expert in the field. But what else can it be the reasoning behind it? Why else take away the true randomness of dice throws or card shuffle? (As I also pointed out that this "behaviour" has also been noticed by other players in other BGA games.)
So, again, please make this true random again
Thanks!!
Re: Dice roll - many repeat rolls
Posted: 21 November 2024, 20:19
by Jellby
CatRosa wrote: ↑21 November 2024, 19:55
Having a few dice throws of 3s and 11s in one game: random.
Having most of dice throws coming out 3s and 11s
in one game: not random.
That's where you're wrong. Whatever you can say about one game will not prove anything at all about randomness.
Re: Dice roll - many repeat rolls
Posted: 22 November 2024, 02:02
by fiscused
I don't believe the people claiming the dice are rigged are serious. This is just an ongoing joke that has gone too far.