This is just the flaw of the ELO system when it comes to games with luck.maveleo wrote: ↑10 November 2023, 14:32 Arena points just don't make sense for some games and the all award mechanism should be revised. Why allowing a game to happen when you can get 3 or 4 arena points in case of victory and loose 30+ in case of lost. Expecially for games with a lucky factor in place this is something so simple to see that I cannot explain why nothing is done about it
The ELO system and derivatives like glicko etc. assume a certain (normal) distribution for skill in your performance from which your chance to win is calculated and thus the expected value is 0 for both players. In many games this doesn't work though.
For example some games just have a chance to be a 'non-game' so even a large underdog (think 100 pts vs 600) still has a higher chance to win than expected from ratings. Reversly in many games a ~200 rated player doesn't have the ~25% winning chance they are expected to have vs a 400 rated player. Basically in most games top players are incentivized to play many games against just ~200 elo points below while avoiding other top players and the very low rated players.

