Board Game Arena

What, the same number being rolled multiple consecutive times? Of course it happens, because that's how random dice should behave.

If this is a 11 or 12 I understand can upsets people and make them suspicious, but of course it happens and give them an unease feeling that, and this is the point, cannot be addressed by looking at the stats at the end of the game.

All of those that are complaining about the dices should collect data of this behaviour and then come back, to close the discussion for ever

Alternatively, you can tell us now what specific thing you think is wrong (and be the most precise possible about it). Per example you could said that 'every game a specific number will be rolled too much in a row'.

And then, in the future (and that's the most important part), you show us games where what you said happen.


Since it's a prediction it's much harder to do. But us who are doing stats since it's a prediction will have much more difficulties to find ways to reduces the probability of that event.
Per example if in your prediction you are saying that 'any number' is rolled too much, that would be far weaker than saying that '5' is rolled too much. In the first case, we will be able to multiply the probability of it happening by nearly 11, since that claim could be for any of the numbers (and that's why I asked before to be precise).

The problem of doing that for you, is that it's extremely difficult to make a prediction. You like to end your game and said that this game '4&9 has been too much rolled'. Then on your next game that 'Bob which started 3/5/5/8/8/11 got extremely lucky with his 5&8'. Then on your next that you rarely rolled an high number.
But the chance for anything 'weird' happening in every game is 100%. Even if your game follow perfectly a bell's curve, that would be extremely rare to roll all numbers exactly as the average expect.

Romain672 wrote: ↑11 February 2025, 18:19 Alternatively, you can tell us now what specific thing you think is wrong (and be the most precise possible about it). Per example you could said that 'every game a specific number will be rolled too much in a row'.

And then, in the future (and that's the most important part), you show us games where what you said happen.

To be clear: I don't believe in any conspiracy, I was just trying to understand why the topic comes back often and how to stop this from happening!

But true, unless someone starts tracking every sequence of rolls on all the tables in a day, showing something worth of investigation, the accusation should stop

Theana wrote: ↑28 February 2025, 14:50
.....

To be clear: I don't believe in any conspiracy, I was just trying to understand why the topic comes back often and how to stop this from happening!

That's pretty clear... Most people think that if ONE never came out of twenty dice rolls, then it's much more likely to appear on the next roll.
Just the opposite way true randomness work...

These guys should all go play On Tour. Now those are dice that feel wonky.

Theana wrote: ↑28 February 2025, 14:50 To be clear: I don't believe in any conspiracy, I was just trying to understand why the topic comes back often and how to stop this from happening!

To be clear: you are promoting a conspiracy theory. 'Asking questions' when the answer is blindingly obvious is the tactic of someone trying to promote a conspiracy theory. And in this case the answer is blinding obvious, the topic keeps coming up because people who wish to promote disinformation keep raising it - its not the people who point out the widespread lack of understanding of probability that start these threads. How to stop it? A world wide mass education campaign perhaps? Or maybe people could just stop promoting conspiracy theories? I doubt either of those is going to happen, so this will keep happening.

18% 11’s this morning….

364point4Smoots wrote: ↑02 March 2025, 18:45 18% 11’s this morning….

Basically meaningless...

If you trow a dice and get say 3 then you can conclude that, out of one roll, 100% where 3 and all the other outcomes 0%. So the dice is rigged.
So every dice in the world is rigged.

RobertBr wrote: ↑01 March 2025, 14:38

Theana wrote: ↑28 February 2025, 14:50 To be clear: I don't believe in any conspiracy, I was just trying to understand why the topic comes back often and how to stop this from happening!

To be clear: you are promoting a conspiracy theory. 'Asking questions' when the answer is blindingly obvious is the tactic of someone trying to promote a conspiracy theory. And in this case the answer is blinding obvious, the topic keeps coming up because people who wish to promote disinformation keep raising it - its not the people who point out the widespread lack of understanding of probability that start these threads. How to stop it? A world wide mass education campaign perhaps? Or maybe people could just stop promoting conspiracy theories? I doubt either of those is going to happen, so this will keep happening.

To be clear: you are confused and don't know how asking question works.

What you suggest is what has been happening until now: if you read all the posts about the dice, the educated anwers is always the same: the probability of the rolls at the end of the game are within the stats. However people keeps coming back with the same argument even before I ever replied.

You cannot stop conspiracy theory, but by being so smart and passive aggressive you should have figured it out yourself!

My only statement is that I can understand why sometimes some sequences of rolls can APPEAR weird. Since you are so smart, you should also understand that you cannot confute a sequence using the game stats at the end: it is like comparing apple and oranges.

But please go ahead

best and only way to determine if the dice have issues is to aggregate all rolls from every single Catan match on this site..
There is no doubt in my mind that if someone did that, the breakdown would be almost exactly
2 /12- 2.78%
3 /11 - 5.56%
4/10 - 8.33%
5 /9- 11.11%
6/8 - 13.89%
7 - 16.67%
One game will never give you any insight.
There is a math concept called the law of large numbers and it absolutely speaks to this situation


So go take a stats glad something!