Way to make ELO matchups more similar?

[FrankJones]

Now, with regard to chess. Well, that's an interesting question. Does the Elo model work in chess? The math would say I have a non-zero chance of beating Magnus Carlsen.

But I think I have zero chance. That said, maybe there is some luck in chess. Maybe he goes to make a move and some misfortune, bad luck, spasm, whatever, causes him to touch a pawn that is between my bishop and his queen, and now he has to move the pawn, and he loses the queen without gaining anything.

I'm not sure what skill level someone would need to be to win against Carlsen if he is playing minus a queen, but the win probability would certainly go up a lot. I would try aggressively force trades of equal material before I become ensnared in some sort of clever trap that costs me my queen.

[Meeplelowda]

Maybe I'm changing my mind somewhat on some firm stances I expressed in that other thread, though I'm not sure.

This is intellectual maturity. Taking in opposing arguments and considering whether you maybe should reassess your position.

I had a similar evolution on conceding where I used to argue that everything should be viewed the same as abstract combinatorial games where conceding is routine and expected, and I no longer hold that view.

[Meeplelowda]

I'm not sure what skill level someone would need to be to win against Carlsen if he is playing minus a queen, but the win probability would certainly go up a lot.

Even a large multiple of an infinitesimal amount is still negligible.