Page 4 of 4

Re: Is this game dying?

Posted: 17 May 2026, 08:06
by Jellby
anonymustard wrote: 16 May 2026, 23:34 This week I queued without ELO restriction into the same player twice my ELO (~240 versus ~450) literally FIVE games in a row.
Remember that for elo calculations all that matters are differences ("twice my elo" is irrelevant). So 240 vs 450 or 1240 vs 1450 is the same, a 210 difference, which gives a 77%/23% win probability: you're expected to win around 1 every 4 games.

Re: Is this game dying?

Posted: 18 May 2026, 18:41
by anonymustard
Jellby wrote: 17 May 2026, 08:06
anonymustard wrote: 16 May 2026, 23:34 This week I queued without ELO restriction into the same player twice my ELO (~240 versus ~450) literally FIVE games in a row.
Remember that for elo calculations all that matters are differences ("twice my elo" is irrelevant). So 240 vs 450 or 1240 vs 1450 is the same, a 210 difference, which gives a 77%/23% win probability: you're expected to win around 1 every 4 games.
In a healthy matchmaking system, do you think a player should be put into 6 games in a row with a 23% win chance?

Most MMR systems attempt to find as close to 50% win rates as possible. Consistently matching a 240 ELO player with others between 200 and 280 would already be swingier than other games, but much better than the current situation.