ELO & Ranking - problems and suggesting solutions

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suet63 fans club
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Joined: 15 June 2017, 06:40

Re: ELO & Ranking - problems and suggesting solutions

Post by suet63 fans club »

@Romain672 I think a 2players game can be more strategic because there will be no other external factors affecting the game, so the condition that an opponent make mistake and another opponent benefit from it wont appear. There is higher control of game. Also if a player has very high elo in the game, putting this player to be 3rd may guarantee elo gain for the other 2players, which I think is not a kind of king making because those 2players are trying their best to get their best elo. Just like you 2 play 2players legend inventors, right :D ?

@ibav I think the problem of ELO decay is that some players possess great skills but rarely play will suffer from unfair punishment. (your last point?) If we look into leaderboard in Caylus, a strategic-based game, The first player has 1288 elo, but there are players who go unranked just because they rarely play here, for example Doodads (1050 elo) and ickoicko (1454elo 151victories in 153games, who nearly win all games against every strong player). In such games I guess their ability wont really decay that much, the problem is just because they dont have time to play or they may feel boring because they mostly win against everyone.

I also think there is a problem of elo upward mobility. As the K value has been decreased, it is much more difficult to get a high amount of ELO. Players have to play many many games. The strategy of playing with beginners was good to boost elo, for example, in Caylus, deszczyk got 842 elo (387victories in 428 gaames), he mostly plays with players with <200, which is comparable to 1300 elo and 1400 players in the old elo system, and he maintains his top10 rank. But in his recently games he actually just get an average of 0elo per victory, because he plays with beginners only. That means, in the new elo system, players cannot use the strategies of playing with beginners, but those who did it in the past maintain in high elo. I would say this as 'a past benefit that the system provides now disappears, but players being benefited in the past maintain their high elo'. This can also be seen in NOIR: Killer vs Inspector. In the early implementation of the game the site provides benefit by allowing default killer in the normal mode. This allows players to boost elo (daveraux, 701 elo, 203 victories in 249games). This setting is then canceled. There is still a setting of default inspector in normal mode, which table administrators can leave then rejoin after their opponent comes to ensure they are killer. However, some players doing this are reset their elo, but some still remains (Kaosbombix, 575 elo). The above 2players are 'unranked', not sure if the site ban them to have proper elo or not. But then, on 30 March, the pure advantage of citizen arrest mode arrives, and when it is first implemented, inspector can do unlimited times of citizen arrest, which gives them a pure advantage. I would say it can be 90% winning if the inspector do not make mistake and possess basic skills. The current ranked first player, Yegor, raised from 284 elo to 627 elo until 18 April, which the day of slightly balanced version of citizen arrest is implemented. Yes, he raised his elo from 284 to 627! His current elo is now 645, which is 2month after the implemented version arrives. This shows that elo boost become much more difficult after this new version, making no possibility for players to challenge his first place.

I would like to talk more about difficult elo upward mobility in less popular games. Let's talk about evo. After the new elo system is implemented, old players get a direct 200+ elo bonus to their existing elo. Even if a player play one no elo game, he should get 1500elo in the past, but he is said to have 200 elo under the new system. But now, if a guy have not tried the game, he has 0elo only. In evo, the first player has 558 elo, from the 2nd to the 7th, they have elo from 371 to 208. 371 elo means about 1671 elo in the past, which can be easily achieved by playing 8-12games with beginners who do not know rules at all and win the game easily. But I would like to focus on the elo of the 8th player, garchon. If you search his playing record, including games dont finished properly, his total ELO points won, calculated by the system, is -8, negative 8. We can then look into another player, who plays his first game after the elo system changes, i.e. he starts with 0elo. He is Kaosbombix again. He gets 128 elo (10 victories in 13games), and his total elo points won is 128, 120 higher than garchon. Kaosbombix has not played for 60days so he is ranked now, he actually ranks 11th only, even lower than garchon. In fact, in less popular games, it is quite difficult to find players, it often costs more than an hour. How many players are willing to spend so much time for just a game? They may feel demotivated when they try to play or upgrade their rank, because there is nearly no players playing these games, and they can only accept the fact that old players get benefit because of the ELO system.

In terms of game difficulty, I would like to classify game as pure luck-based, luck-based with low strategy entrance level, luck-based with medium strategy entrance level and strategy based game (which are actually luck-based game with high strategy entrance level, or abstract games dont involve luck at all). I refer strategy entrance level to 'when a player possess basic strategy level and he does not make mistake in the game, the victory bases on luck if his opponent also possess that strategy'. I would say Nile and Senet is the first type of games, most casual game include cant stop is the second type and some 'games for regular players' and Libertalia is belonged to the third. I would like to talk about the first and third type in particular.

In the first type of games, even though there are some strategies involved, you can still have about 40% chance to win even though you do not know the rules at all and do what the system allows you to do. Senet is one of them. In the past, players try to rank high by playing with players with as high elo as possible because they can gain more or loss less elo. Players who get luck in win games with a row result in high elo. The player who ranks first on this game is 507elo (35victories in 48games), which is 1807 elo in the past and he has a net gain of 307 elo. In the past, there some cheators like deszcz (demon now) gets 100% victory rates because he plays with friends, and his friend abandon or concede in the game to make sure deszcz wins. But this is not the case for fedetsrm. None of his game in senet is abandoned, meaning he is really blessed to get such high elo. This achievement is actually impossible to have because the victory rates of most players who play a considerable amount of games will not exceed 65%. The elo of the 2nd in this game is 415 and the 3rd has 379. However, as the K value in the new system decreases, it is impossible for players to challenge fedetsrm's rank and his 50k trophies are guaranteed. For fedetsrm, in order to guarantee his rank, which is obtained by some strategies and a good method to choose opponents, he plays a game every 60days to avoid high elo loss. This is actually reasonable because he has no incentives to suffer a risk in losing his elo. I do not think this is his fault, he is protecting something difficult to get. There are complaints about players who rank first and play a massive amount of no elo games. Again I don't think it is a problem because there is no reason for these players to play elo on and they have their right to play. It is difficult to judge whether a player is just busy to have a game, getting bored of it or they use other accounts to play (they can just deny that is different person, maybe parents or friends), it is too difficult to judge. The real problem is that after the elo system changes, players feel more difficult in challenging leaders.

This is also due to the fact that the numbers of players in a game gradually shrinks after the game is implemented. The period when the game is just implemented is a golden period for players to boost elo because there are many high elo beginners in that period. Some players like Oso use this strategy to boost elo. This creates a group of high elo players in the leader board, plus their 200 elo bonus, their ranks seems to be more difficult to be challenged. But the main problem is that there are not as many high elo players are playing a game after a long period of time. Those who rank high may keep playing, but as their maximum elo loss in a game is just 20, they wont suffer that much. The golden period in the past is the first 30games, they get elo bonus, which is higher than now, and the number of games also exceed the current 20games that beginners can get bonus. For aggressive elo players, they can actually learn the game before it is implemented by keeping tract on the news bga release and look at games that admins and active developers play. They may be testing games, but those games still appear in their game record, though the games are not allowed by others to play. The current elo bonus in the first 20games may bring a player to about 300 or 400 elo, but it is still much far from those leaders. As the current system encourages players to play with similar level players, the giant killing way to boost elo in the past no longer works that much, a player can only get a maximum of 20 elo in each game.

Last I would talk about games with medium strategy entrance level, Libertalia. It is quite a luck-based one if a game is played within strong players, in real time. Frequent players like supermarky, Mumaspejo and and typhoon81 usually has similar chances to win in 2players game, especially the one who get the black color cards (only red and black in 2players). They may reach a high rank, but as these active players play more games against similar level players, their elo will gradually be balanced and they cant reach the top. This again promotes the behavior of playing with beginners in such games. The current first player in this game is deszczyk, with 725 elo (146 victories in 176games). Again, he played many games against beginners with low elo, just like what he do in the past. This allows him to get about 2 to 3 elo in each game in the old system in the past, then play a game every 60days after that. The second in this game, firstgrader uses the strategy of playing turn-based games. In fact, players who play turn-based game generally have lower elo, and this is the situation in this game as most active players play real time. This is because counting cards are required in this game, which is better to be done in real time. Players may use the 'note' function in turn-based to count. As most players do not count in turn-based, I would say they enjoy casual games and they can play freely, players who count in turn-based can greatly benefit. The player with highest elo in this game is Scaraoski with 794 elo. As mentioned, this game is actually quite luck-based, Scaraoski wins 30games out of 33games with a same IP player, kush. Kush is said to be an expert, but his victory rates are especially low against Scaraoski, but his victory rates are normal against other strong players. Again this is something strange.

no offenses to most of the players mentioned above.
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Romain672
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Re: ELO & Ranking - problems and suggesting solutions

Post by Romain672 »

@RicardoSix : I think that 2players inventor should not be the only way to reach the top of the ranking. The game have not been created for that initially.
Even if it's the best way to not loose, since there is no focus possible.
Liallan
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Joined: 26 May 2014, 07:01

Re: ELO & Ranking - problems and suggesting solutions

Post by Liallan »

ibav wrote:
Liallan wrote:
ibav wrote:Would be nice to see something done about this.

One cool feature I've seen on other sites is ELO decay. For example if you don't play for x days your ELO drops by y points.
This has been suggested like a gazillion times. It wouldn't surprise me if on this very thread. I personally dislike sites that do this. (EDIT: In fact, scrolling up not very far, I see I've discussed such a suggestion, so very obviously it is on this thread already.)
And some of the problems that come with this is the inherit imbalance balance between those who play real time and those who play turn based, and an imbalance between those who live on here and play a lot and those who play more casually. And when someone knows a lot of games, there just isn't any way to be playing all those games all the time. And it forces people to play things when they don't want to, it means people can't get burnt on a game and just take a break from it.

I have never seen a decay suggestion yet that would really work in any fair way, and not just force people to play things they might not want to, and I'm thinking that really shouldn't be the goal.
I'm not suggesting at all that people should be forced to play things they don't want to.
The ultimate result of that is exactly that: people will be forced to play things they don't want to, in order to keep from decaying. It doesn't matter if that's not what you meant. It is what will be the result. They decay on Happy Meeple. Obviously I don't have to go there at all, let alone play anything in particular, as no one is forcing me. But each time I do go there, in order to get my ELO's back, I feel forced into playing each game that I know there whether I really want to or not.

However your post is suggesting that ranking people as elite players shouldn't require actually playing the game if they don't want to! If you don't want to play thats fine, but you shouldn't be ranked.
Yup, that's exactly what I am suggesting. If you actually read back through this thread, the decay concept has already been introduced (along with other threads that are floating around somewhere), and my response to it. Then you wouldn't have to try so hard to "figure out" what I'm suggesting. ;) Thing is, it's not as simple as "elite players shouldn't be required to actually play."

It seems like many people are concerned about people who will be hurt by any change, such as those who now play different games or have left the site. IMO this is just a status quo bias, since the leaderboard is zero sum, only 10 people can be on it. The goal is not to force people to play certain games, its to make the criteria whatever gets us closest to that, and in reality biasing it away from the status quo is the most likely to help with that. As a bonus it also makes the system less easy to 'game'
I'm one of the ones concerned about the people who will be hurt by the change. It's is NOT a status quo "bias." I could care less about that. I'm not in the 10 players of anything on this site. And it wouldn't be that huge of a deal to me if I were. I float in and out of top 20 for Chinagold, affected a lot by what RicardoSix is calling the "200 point boost." (it's not really 200 points but I get what he means.) So how exactly is my concern about this "elitist"? Or do you believe only top 10 players actually have a concern about it? I don't even know who any top 10 players are, nor do I care.

The problem is it will hurt ANYONE who doesn't play some particular game as much as someone else, which to start with, at a site like this, creates an unfairness between real time and turn-based players. This isn't elitist. This isn't even about top 10 players. Every suggestion of decaying I have ever seen first of all targets all players. If it only targets top 10, then it's going to decay you until you hit under top 10 and then stop? Eventually someone else gets decayed until they're under top 10, etc, etc., and if there's enough top 10 players who have just stopped playing (for an assumed reason that they don't want to lose their ELO), then perhaps other people take over top 10 who maybe don't even belong there. And then someone drops to 11 and someone else takes over spot 10, but they aren't playing either and just drop. Just seems like a big mess to me.

But usually those suggesting decay are meaning all players. (The places I know that decay, decay everyone.) And they create some built-in mathematical way to decide how to decay, which is generally pretty ridiculous, and unfair. And they never, ever account for people who happen to know a lot of games and simply can't even play that much. One person suggested one system for real time players and one for turn-based, which is also over-simplifying. Partly because some people do both. And partly because it still doesn't account for casual players who do real-time. And really, for anyone who knows a lot of games, it means not only keeping up with some game maybe they've gotten really tired of, but having to fit in all the other games they know as well. I know about 40-something games over on Yucata, and you know, I sort of switch off which ones I get tired of, and then pick up playing something I haven't touched for a while. What about someone who knows over 100 games?

Or, why not just read my other post on that?

I also don't like the assumption that just cause someone hasn't played for a while that it means they "don't belong" in the top 10, can't play anymore, couldn't keep up their ELO if they did play, etc. What if those assumptions aren't true? Maybe someone knows a game well enough that they can get by with playing once every 60 days and still be just as good. Certainly if you don't know a game well to begin with, then staying away from it for a while will make you lose skill or even forget rules, etc. I know both types of games - those I've completely forgotten because I never learned them well enough, and those that I could probably not play for a year and still be just as good in. You also could consider the number of people who play on more than one site, or those who play in person, and who have kept their skills up, but just haven't played here... cause maybe they come here to play something they can't play elsewhere. I've noticed no one has mentioned that. And let's not forget games that maybe don't get a lot of players....

In the end, no I don't care if someone in the top 10 isn't playing. This isn't a matter of analyzing what 'type' of player someone is. It's just that I don't have the same concern you apparently do for top 10 players, and that I don't care if they stay there, and that I don't necessarily believe there's a reason they don't belong there just cause they haven't played for a while. And in the end, if they must play to keep that ELO, then yes, you are basically telling people what they have to play whether they want to or not, and if the decay applies to everyone, then you're telling everyone what they have to play. (It's bad enough I feel like I'm having to play everything I know in hopes of "fixing" that ELO change. As a casual turn-based player, that's difficult.)

There are also other ideas that don't involve decays. For one thing, people around here seem to really be into these trophies and they could certainly mess with that. There could be a difference between "current" top players vs "all-time" best players. (Now, that one is difficult with the change in ELO, cause that's totally messed up. Perhaps pre-change top players and post-change new top players, I don't know.) I've gotten prestige 3 times for going into the top 20 for China Gold - is that an incentive for someone to keep playing and if they drop down they'll get new prestige for going back up? I remember there was some "maximum ELO" thing, though I don't recall what that was. Or maybe you could just read the thread....
Ranif88
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Joined: 24 December 2012, 00:39

Re: ELO & Ranking - problems and suggesting solutions

Post by Ranif88 »

A few follow ons from my prior post...:

@Liallan - Lol, agree on the "adults" commenting...my hope again is that notices can stay on/in the board vs. outside emails (less work for site!)

@Romain672 - Perhaps I am not understanding your full comment...with a Karma fully at 100, I was penalized 8pts (8%) for one (1) delayed game. I have since played several games here again on time and worked it back up to 97%, so do not understand your "if your karma is over 70, you got no penality" comment...

Also, your "just too complex" note appears to be in response to my suggestion of fractional karma ... again, not complex as the suggestion was simply to look at someone's last 10 or 50 or some number games to derive an idea of how often they delay/leave, then weight any penalty appropriately rather than a hard "8pts per 1 delay of 1 game" seen here. One advantage is providing a small reinforcement behavior to "correct" one's habits that currently isn't provided by a set impact/penalty. A second is that this would be more in line with the karmic "k" factor thinking used here already.
So, there you go.

Thanks regardless -
Liallan
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Joined: 26 May 2014, 07:01

Re: ELO & Ranking - problems and suggesting solutions

Post by Liallan »

Ranif88 wrote:@Romain672 - Perhaps I am not understanding your full comment...with a Karma fully at 100, I was penalized 8pts (8%) for one (1) delayed game. I have since played several games here again on time and worked it back up to 97%, so do not understand your "if your karma is over 70, you got no penality" comment...
Something about this sounds a little weird. The 8 point penalty doesn't sound right at all. By "delayed" game I'm assuming where you were over-time? Did you have turns skipped but then get back into the game?

It sounds like either an error, or that they have changed something. Originally finishing a game but having gone over time didn't do anything at all. So you didn't get penalized but you didn't get anything for completing the game. Abandoning a game I believe was 10 point penalty, and then even bigger penalties if you did it again within a short span of time. I know a lot of people thought those penalties were pretty rough because it would knock you down really fast, but I don't know if they ever changed that. The little pop-up on someone's reputation doesn't seem to have changed, though it doesn't say how red thumbs affect it.

I don't know what the reference to 70 is. And I'm also not aware of anything that is 8 points.
Ranif88
Posts: 37
Joined: 24 December 2012, 00:39

Re: ELO & Ranking - problems and suggesting solutions

Post by Ranif88 »

Appreciate it, but can't help the end result - 1 game unable to re-enter/timed out, 100 Karma reduced to 92... thus ends my observations.
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EMBison
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Re: ELO & Ranking - problems and suggesting solutions

Post by EMBison »

Advice I was given 20-25 years ago when we were having these same arguments about the rating system for Diplomacy judges.

- Play games
- Have fun
- Judge your games and your play by whatever criteria matters to you
- Have fun looking at your ELO, but don't take it seriously
- Don't care about anyone else's ELO
- Of course the ELO system is flawed, every system is flawed. If you get upset about it, reread suggestions 1-5 above
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ringersoll
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Re: ELO & Ranking - problems and suggesting solutions

Post by ringersoll »

EMBison wrote:Advice I was given 20-25 years ago when we were having these same arguments about the rating system for Diplomacy judges.

- Play games
- Have fun
- Judge your games and your play by whatever criteria matters to you
- Have fun looking at your ELO, but don't take it seriously
- Don't care about anyone else's ELO
- Of course the ELO system is flawed, every system is flawed. If you get upset about it, reread suggestions 1-5 above
+1
dcac1
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Joined: 01 March 2015, 06:50

Re: ELO & Ranking - problems and suggesting solutions

Post by dcac1 »

K value can now vary from 20 to 40 if the player z had become inactive and played game X 41 times or more. Is this a good idea.

Idea
If player z fail to play game X for 1 month, raise player z K value by 5 for game X. Note that this rule will apply if player z had played game X 41 times or more. K value maximum cap if player z had played game X 41 times or more: 40


If player z play game X 5 times, drop player z K value by 5 for game X. Note that this rule will apply if player z had played game X 41 times or more. K value minimum cap if player z had played game X 41 times or more: 20
Liallan
Posts: 1221
Joined: 26 May 2014, 07:01

Re: ELO & Ranking - problems and suggesting solutions

Post by Liallan »

dcac1 wrote:K value can now vary from 20 to 40 if the player z had become inactive and played game X 41 times or more. Is this a good idea.

Idea
If player z fail to play game X for 1 month, raise player z K value by 5 for game X. Note that this rule will apply if player z had played game X 41 times or more. K value maximum cap if player z had played game X 41 times or more: 40


If player z play game X 5 times, drop player z K value by 5 for game X. Note that this rule will apply if player z had played game X 41 times or more. K value minimum cap if player z had played game X 41 times or more: 20
I'm not real fond of these "inactivity" type things, but adjusting K is a lot better idea that just eroding ELO. The one thing you have to watch is making anything "per time period." That is I think not fair to those playing turn-based, and also those who know and play a lot of different games since they don't have time to play so many games within a given time frame.
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