Board Game Arena

All these seem pretty random lol. It is confirmation bias after all.

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@SluggerBaloney :


No; perfectly average would be a discrete triangle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangular_distribution

https://www.frontlinegaming.org/wp-cont ... _Table.jpg
shows why.

I've defended RNGs on so many games on so many sites over the years but my first 3 games of Catan here is starting to make me wonder if there is actually an issue.

A new "record". 27% of the rolls were the same number (5), including multiple sequences. Person on the 5? got 10 points. The other 2 players? didn't even get past 2 vp. https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=291460865

Why not include a table with rolled numbers at every Catan game?
Would make it at least easy to see which numbers are rolled how many times...

Edit: one of my games with 22% #10: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=290444768
Edit 2: 47% on #5,6 and 7: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=290932926

Ieniemienieme wrote: ↑15 August 2022, 09:56 Why not include a table with rolled numbers at every Catan game?
Would make it at least easy to see which numbers are rolled how many times...

Edit: one of my games with 22% #10: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=290444768
Edit 2: 47% on #5,6 and 7: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=290932926

See nothing special.. yeah if every game had 22 roles of 10 but it is not special to get it once or twice…

CharlieReddog wrote: ↑14 August 2022, 10:45 A new "record". 27% of the rolls were the same number (5), including multiple sequences. Person on the 5? got 10 points. The other 2 players? didn't even get past 2 vp. https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=291460865

OK, I will look at it.
There was 49 rolls, 13 of them were 5, which give 26.5% of 5s, you are right.

That give a probability of occuring of 0.22% which really surprise me (=pretty likely). So that happen 1 time out of 464.


But, where the fun begin is that you can do the same reasonning for 2s, 3s, 4s, 6s, 7s, 8s, 9s, 10s, 11s, and 12s. Which now give a probability of 2.3%. One game out of 42,6.

So as strange as it look, you should get that or something even weirder more than one game out of 43 in average. And only when searching for one specific number.


So yeah again, I want to find low probability, but at the end, it's just a likely event which happen more than once every day on the site.

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SluggerBaloney wrote: ↑26 August 2022, 23:09

Yeah, it's "random"

Remember, on average that should be a bell curve. There were more 10's than 7's, and an equal number of 3's and 7's

I would be very suspicious if I saw a bell curve across multiple games. On average it should be a triangle. The number of combinations for rolls 2..12 is 1/2/3/4/5/6/5/4/3/2/1 which most certainly isn't any sort of curve.