Board Game Arena

I am done with Catan BGA too, the randomness is pure bullshit this is insane.

I looked at your last game and... well, you didn't really play that well either. Went straight for sheep port strategy while only producing sheep off a 5 and 12. And then you placed the city on a 9-12 while 2-9-10 or 5-6-12 would have been a much safer bet in regards of producing resources.

Overall, 3-4-8 and 2-9-10 would have been a much safer start.

Catan is a random game. If that does not fit you, try one of the several games on BGA. There are much better games than this anyway.

I haven't analyzed the rolls (how do you get the data to do that?) but I do have a sense that 8's and 10's are rolled more often than they should be and 6's are rolled less often than they should be. Hard to tell, but perhaps 7's are tolled not as often as they should be.

I've also noted that good players tend to take "8" locations over "6" locations, suggesting that the community has picked up on this as well.

This is the only game on bga where I have the impression that the dice rolls are not statistically correct.

starman72 wrote: ↑30 December 2022, 02:21 I haven't analyzed the rolls (how do you get the data to do that?) but I do have a sense that 8's and 10's are rolled more often than they should be and 6's are rolled less often than they should be. Hard to tell, but perhaps 7's are tolled not as often as they should be.

I've also noted that good players tend to take "8" locations over "6" locations, suggesting that the community has picked up on this as well.

This is the only game on bga where I have the impression that the dice rolls are not statistically correct.

To see the rolls for a particular game you've played, do the following:

1. Click on your profile
2. Click on View game history
3. Click on the table number of a Catan game you've played
4. Scroll down and you'll see the list of rolls per dice tota

I'm also starting to get to the point of quitting Catan on BGA as well. I had a particularly poor random number game yesterday, https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=331200742 . There were 99 rolls, only 2 7's but 19 3's, 21 6's and 15 9's.

The other thing that seems odd is that most of my games take about 99 rolls. I play 3 player Catan and the range of rolls is 97 to 102 rolls with 99 clearly being the median and mode for the games. It seems odd to me that they number of rolls is so consistent. It almost seems as if the game is looking at initial placements and then determining which die rolls would be most likely to result in a 99 roll game. I've played 14 games so far and when looks at the totals they're not that far off expected averages for the total of the 14 games but there are many skewed games.

I'm afraid I didn't pay enough attention in my statistics classes decades ago to figure out how unexpected the results are per game. Because you could skew each game yet have the sum total look reasonable statistically.

asp3 wrote: ↑30 December 2022, 21:38There were 99 rolls, only 2 7's but 19 3's, 21 6's and 15 9's.

Nope. Each player had 16 turns, so there were 48 rolls. See below.

The other thing that seems odd is that most of my games take about 99 rolls. I play 3 player Catan and the range of rolls is 97 to 102 rolls with 99 clearly being the median and mode for the games. It seems odd to me that they number of rolls is so consistent. It almost seems as if the game is looking at initial placements and then determining which die rolls would be most likely to result in a 99 roll game.

This has been discussed before. The numbers you see in the statistics are percentages, so by definition they should add up to 100 (the difference with 100 is only due to rounding).

Jellby wrote: ↑30 December 2022, 22:00

asp3 wrote: ↑30 December 2022, 21:38There were 99 rolls, only 2 7's but 19 3's, 21 6's and 15 9's.

Nope. Each player had 16 turns, so there were 48 rolls. See below.

The other thing that seems odd is that most of my games take about 99 rolls. I play 3 player Catan and the range of rolls is 97 to 102 rolls with 99 clearly being the median and mode for the games. It seems odd to me that they number of rolls is so consistent. It almost seems as if the game is looking at initial placements and then determining which die rolls would be most likely to result in a 99 roll game.

This has been discussed before. The numbers you see in the statistics are percentages, so by definition they should add up to 100 (the difference with 100 is only due to rounding).

Doh!

Thank you. That makes sense. I didn't read all of the earlier posts so I missed that.