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Re: dice used in catan is biased
Posted: 31 July 2024, 15:46
by BusterVA
I think the issue here is that the dice often get "stuck". I have seen, many times, the same number get rolled 5, 6, 7 times in a row. Sure, that is not impossible, but statistically it is very unlikely - and the number of times I see it are incredible. Nearly every game one or two numbers get rolled an incredibly high number of times. I have also seen many many games where a statistically probable number, say anything 5 through 9, do not get rolled at all. I have seen multiple games with no 7's for instance.
Possible? Absolutely. But the number of times these oddities occur appear to defy logic.
It is entirely possible for games to get these weird sequences of rolls, but they just happen all the time - and clearly not just for me, people post about them constantly in these forums. I do not know what the fix is here so I live with it and just hope that the weird anomalies happen to me (which they do on occasion).
I have won many games because my numbers come up a ridiculous number of times. That does not make a game fun. I hate winning with 10 when the other two players both have 2. Likewise I hate being the guy with the 2 when this happens!
A better dice distribution would make for more competitive games and make the experience more fun. I am not talking about equal distribution, but perhaps some dice rule that says something like "no number should be rolled more than 4 consecutive times" or something? Something to make it "feel" like the dice are more random would make a lot of people happier.
Re: dice used in catan is biased
Posted: 31 July 2024, 17:23
by euklid314
BusterVA wrote: ↑31 July 2024, 15:46
I think the issue here is that the dice often get "stuck". I have seen, many times, the same number get rolled 5, 6, 7 times in a row. Sure, that is not impossible, but statistically it is very unlikely - and the number of times I see it are incredible. Nearly every game one or two numbers get rolled an incredibly high number of times. I have also seen many many games where a statistically probable number, say anything 5 through 9, do not get rolled at all. I have seen multiple games with no 7's for instance.
Possible? Absolutely. But the number of times these oddities occur appear to defy logic.
It is entirely possible for games to get these weird sequences of rolls, but they just happen all the time - and clearly not just for me, people post about them constantly in these forums. I do not know what the fix is here so I live with it and just hope that the weird anomalies happen to me (which they do on occasion).
I have won many games because my numbers come up a ridiculous number of times. That does not make a game fun. I hate winning with 10 when the other two players both have 2. Likewise I hate being the guy with the 2 when this happens!
A better dice distribution would make for more competitive games and make the experience more fun. I am not talking about equal distribution, but perhaps some dice rule that says something like "no number should be rolled more than 4 consecutive times" or something? Something to make it "feel" like the dice are more random would make a lot of people happier.
You are suggesting to make the algorithm less random in order to make it feel more random? This has been done before:
*** When Apple released its Shuffle feature for iPods, users were deceived by the true randomness of its playback; songs from the same album or artist were often grouped by chance. Complaints led Steve Jobs to alter the device’s programming and begin offering Smart Shuffle, which allowed users to adjust the likelihood of hearing similar songs in a row. “We’re making it less random,” he said, “to make it feel more random.” ***
Since BGA is not alter game rules, however, this will not happen here. If you cant live with true randomness search for other games that dont depend on dice.
Re: dice used in catan is biased
Posted: 31 July 2024, 17:27
by Jellby
They should just let players use physical dice rolls and report the results.
Re: dice used in catan is biased
Posted: 31 July 2024, 17:28
by Nekojin
Jellby wrote: ↑31 July 2024, 17:27
They should just let players use physical dice rolls and report the results.
Genius! There's no way that could go wrong!
Re: dice used in catan is biased
Posted: 31 July 2024, 17:43
by twsansbury
For what it is worth, I parsed 10k games. The dice distribution is well within the expect range of a of 2d6 distribution.
Re: dice used in catan is biased
Posted: 31 July 2024, 18:29
by fiscused
twsansbury wrote: ↑31 July 2024, 17:43
For what it is worth, I parsed 10k games. The dice distribution is well within the expect range of a of 2d6 distribution.
The issue isn't that the distribution isn't random. The issue is that is doesn't FEEL random. After all, what if the dice gods are mad at you? Is there a way for the program to counter the dice gods? Maybe this is what should be discussed!
Re: dice used in catan is biased
Posted: 31 July 2024, 21:26
by twsansbury
fiscused wrote: ↑31 July 2024, 18:29
The issue isn't that the distribution isn't random. The issue is that is doesn't FEEL random. After all, what if the dice gods are mad at you? Is there a way for the program to counter the dice gods? Maybe this is what should be discussed!
I did not mean to imply the distribution is random or not random, only that the distribution is that of a 2d6 distribution.
I think the issue is more complex: there are individuals that assert the dice implementation is not correct and will not be swayed by statistical analysis; there are individuals that assert the dice implementation is not correct and would be swayed by statistical analysis; there are individuals that feel the dice rolls are not random enough in their games; and there are individuals that feel it is an acceptable random 2d6 distribution. There is no solution that pleases all of those parties. If an algorithm was added to reduce randomness in order to make each game feel more random, then those with the means of understanding the algorithm gain a competitive advantage.
Re: dice used in catan is biased
Posted: 31 July 2024, 22:36
by Mathew5000
BusterVA wrote: ↑31 July 2024, 15:46I have seen, many times, the same number get rolled 5, 6, 7 times in a row. Sure, that is not impossible, but statistically it is very unlikely - and the number of times I see it are incredible.
I suspect you are misremembering. Your stats show that you've played 1,441 games of Catan on BGA, so it would be expected that in maybe 40 or 50 of them, one sum would have been rolled 5 or more consecutive times. But it's easy for you to provide evidence. The next time it happens that a number is rolled 5 or more consecutive times, make a note of the table number and move number. If it happens to you a few times in the same week, post the table numbers and move numbers here so that others can verify your observations.
Nearly every game one or two numbers get rolled an incredibly high number of times.
Not sure what you mean by "incredibly high". If you think that one sum being rolled 50% more than would be expected, in a single game, is "incredibly high", then yes, that should happen in the vast majority of three-player games, because of the small sample size. It would be the same whether you are rolling physical dice at home or playing on BGA.
I have won many games because my numbers come up a ridiculous number of times. That does not make a game fun. I hate winning with 10 when the other two players both have 2. Likewise I hate being the guy with the 2 when this happens!
I looked at the final scores of all your completed three-player Catan games in the last two weeks, and I found none where both of the losers had only 2 VP.
Re: dice used in catan is biased
Posted: 31 July 2024, 23:44
by CorkyMalorky
Yeah, I've definitely noticed that numbers come up often in a particular game, but without having access to all the data (which no one does outside of the game administrators) how can we know if the numbers are truly random. For instance, for me to roll a 7 with two dice 4 times in a row, the odds would be 1/4x1/4x1/4x1/4 so 0.0039% likely. That's very, very slim odds, but I've seen it happen too often to count. There is no way to make a computer program "random". What is the algorithm and is it applied to a game or to the entire community playing Catan and the millions of dice throws? IDK.
Re: dice used in catan is biased
Posted: 01 August 2024, 00:51
by Romain672
CorkyMalorky wrote: ↑31 July 2024, 23:44
Yeah, I've definitely noticed that numbers come up often in a particular game, but without having access to all the data (which no one does outside of the game administrators) how can we know if the numbers are truly random. For instance, for me to roll a 7 with two dice 4 times in a row, the odds would be 1/4x1/4x1/4x1/4 so 0.0039% likely. That's very, very slim odds, but I've seen it happen too often to count. There is no way to make a computer program "random". What is the algorithm and is it applied to a game or to the entire community playing Catan and the millions of dice throws? IDK.
Huh. Firstly it's not 0.0039% but 0.39% or 0.0039.
Secondly, it's not 1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4 but 1/6*1/6*1/6*1/6=0.077%.
Thirdly, even if we limit to the dice rolled 4 times in a row, if you just check for four 6&8 rolled 4 times in a row, they got a probability of 0.037%. So twice that. (+0.015% for 5&9)
If I multiply properly all that, I got 0.135% to get 4 times any roll in a row.
Fortly, I check the number of rolls done during a game, I find in your last 5 non terminated games; 53 73 74 76 84 rolls. 72 in average. Which leave you 69 chance to roll this effect in any game.
Which give 8.92%.
So a little less than 1 game out of 11.2, you should get at any point 4 times in a row the same number rolled (accross all players).
Not that unlikely anymore huh
