Board Game Arena

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In the Developers forums are instructions on how to get access to code.

In the FAQ is a discussion about how random numbers are generated on this site.

In several other forums are my passionate responses about how humans are very bad at determining randomness and how easy it would be to prove is something was amiss with the random number generator.

BS ... guys, can you post the impossible runs you've seen from other players ... let's start with this from a few minutes ago ...

uways wins column 8
kuways chooses to stop
kuways progresses on column 8
kuways progresses on column 8
kuways progresses on column 9
kuways progresses on column 9
kuways progresses on column 8
09:41
kuways progresses on column 8
kuways progresses on column 9
kuways progresses on column 5
kuways progresses on column 9
kuways progresses on column 8
kuways progresses on column 5
kuways progresses on column 9
kuways progresses on column 5
kuways progresses on column 5
kuways progresses on column 8
kuways progresses on column 5
kuways progresses on column 8
kuways progresses on column 5
kuways progresses on column 9
kuways progresses on column 9
kuways progresses on column 5
kuways progresses on column 9

And whilst we're at it ... how come ...

I can go from 290 to 102 rank in 1 day, and
Win only 1 in 20 matches whilst doing this, and
Lose a game in THREE rounds, when
I roll a 6&7 1st, then an 8 2nd ... and then crash ... again, and again, and again
Oh, and usually against Level 0 players AND premium members

I CALL BS!

Another classic ...

Eracon wins column 9
Eracon chooses to stop
Eracon progresses on column 9
Eracon progresses on column 7
Eracon progresses on column 8
Eracon progresses on column 9
Eracon progresses on column 7
Eracon progresses on column 9
Eracon progresses on column 9
Eracon progresses on column 7
Eracon progresses on column 9
Eracon progresses on column 9
Eracon progresses on column 8
11:55
Eracon progresses on column 7
Eracon progresses on column 7
Eracon progresses on column 9
Eracon progresses on column 7
Eracon progresses on column 9
Eracon progresses on column 7
Eracon progresses on column 9
Eracon progresses on column 7

There's nothing impossible in this last run. He advanced 20 spots, so it took him 10 to 20 rolls. The probability of getting 7,8 or 9 is 88,7%.

So even if it took him 20 rolls, the probability of success is 0,887^20 = 9,1%. It is lucky but totally usual...

@Pastor
Your first case: 5 8 9 has a succeed rate of 87% for a single try. After placing the 3rd marker, he succeeded 13 times. That has a combined success rate of 16.4%. Just in the run before he failed in the 6th attempt of 5 7 8, which only has a combined likelyhood of 43.2% to happen. Ofc he took a high risk, but also totally had to, because you progressed much more already, so if he‘d not take additional risks, he‘d lose in a few turns anyway. If you assume that one needs 10 runs on average to win, such a successful streak happens more than once every game.

Your second case: My source says 89% for a single success on 7 8 9. He went on successfully 8 times, which gives a combined success rate of 39.4%. You dont mention that before that run, where he was with his back to the wall already too, had lost 7 9 12 on the second attempt after using all markers (Combined odds for this to fail: 35%), followed straight by failing on the second attempt at 5 7 8 (combined odds for this to fail: 17%!). So, if someone pushes that far, such a success can happen about 4 times in a game, while the loss at 2nd run 7 8 9 actually was much rarer.

You can see, that when looking at the actual probabilities in these cases, nothing is really totally unlikely or even BS or „proof for a broken/rigged system“.

Generally, after looking at some of your games generally: Can‘t Stop is a luck based game with lots of strategical decisions required still (if you want to be successful overall). This best is done with a method/system, and a cool head. Meaning, if you tilt as soon as you see something looking unlikely for you, and give up games (sometimes even at 0 rows claimed from the opponent) or even quit them when you dont believe in your success anymore, it‘s not a real surprise that you drop lots of points in a short time (like a poker player that loses all his money in a short bad roll, because all he can think about is that his „luck“ must come back now). This on top of regular suboptimal strategical decisions, like stopping too early on small progresses or not stopping on large progresses, which reduces your win rate already.

Standard ...

Pastor Flapps is unable to continue and loses any progress made this turn!
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 7
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 8
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 6

All lines on game open

First round of game (this actually went in my favour).

It's probability you know!

Pastor Flapps wins column 2
Pastor Flapps chooses to stop
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 7
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 2
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 5
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 2
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 2

The 678 classic ...

Pastor Flapps is unable to continue and loses any progress made this turn!
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 8
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 7
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 6
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 7
Pastor Flapps progresses on column 8

Start of game, all lines open