Board Game Arena

Hello

As of today, on game statistics, for all players, obtaining /!\ on dices with 1 /!\ are evaluated at 15.49%. For dices with 2 /!\, it's 29.23%. As it's 6-faced dices, I expect results to be close to 16.67% and 33.33% respectively.

Considering the huge amount of rolls done by all the players, isn't it strange that there is such a discrepancy between theoretical and actual probabilities?

(It's good for the players though, they should lose control less often )

It makes me wonder. If someone has an explanation...

Are the secured roll included?
The secured throws would lower slighlty the numbers if counted, and probably get close to the ones you mention.

Imay wrote: ↑12 June 2020, 19:03 Are the secured roll included?
The secured throws would lower slighlty the numbers if counted, and probably get close to the ones you mention.

Good point.
Would be strange to include them though. They are not actually rolled.

I agree. The actual probability and the real that comes out in the game is drastically opposite. I have recorded several times the games and the /¡\ are close to 40% (and that taking into account that at most 3 come out per roll).
In fact, I just finished a game with 66% of /¡\ on red dice (10 /¡\ de 15). And thanks to a last throw run, otherwise it would be talking about 77%.
That is, twice the probability of normal.
How is it possible? The only answer I can think of is that there is no real randomness (so the game is cheating).

There have been complaints about this too, on other games like can't stop.

Your sample is far too small. There are 3,3% chances to get at least 10 /!\ over 15 when there are 40% chances to get a /!\, or 1 chance in 30. In your case, you were just unlucky.

Chauff wrote: ↑28 June 2020, 14:00 Your sample is far too small. There are 3,3% chances to get at least 10 /!\ over 15 when there are 40% chances to get a /!\, or 1 chance in 30. In your case, you were just unlucky.

That might be true, but it doesn't explain

As of today, on game statistics, for all players, obtaining /!\ on dices with 1 /!\ are evaluated at 15.49%. For dices with 2 /!\, it's 29.23%. As it's 6-faced dices, I expect results to be close to 16.67% and 33.33% respectively.

I think Imay has the good intuition about it (secure rolls could be included), but we would need a confirmation from the dev.

Same from my friends, we had very bad statistics, nearly impossible ones :
In row : 4 warnings on 5 dice, 3 warnings on 3 dice, 3 warnings on 4 dice

frafa wrote: ↑12 June 2020, 19:00Considering the huge amount of rolls done by all the players, isn't it strange that there is such a discrepancy between theoretical and actual probabilities?

No statistical result can seem strange by disconnecting it from the data set from which it is derived.

I’m willing to bet that what you call "huge amount" is a ridiculously small number for a sample size, leading to a wide fluctuation interval to conclude that the probabilities observed in considering your tiny sample match the theoretical probabilities.