Page 1 of 1

3 observations in 3 backgammon games

Posted: 17 August 2020, 20:46
by Stealthpup
1. In the space of 5 die rolls (3 by my opponent and 2 by me), there were 3 6-6s rolled.
2. The same thing happened in the very next game. Indeed, there were a total of either 7 or 9 6-6s rolled out of a 50-roll game.
3. I just played a game where my opponent got 8 doubles and I got 2 (and one I could not use).

I understand the Law of Large Numbers, but, even so, stuff like this gives me pause.

Re: 3 observations in 3 backgammon games

Posted: 17 August 2020, 21:10
by sprockitz
the statistics show the average for number of doubles and it is very close to 1/6

4.04 of 25.3 on average (slightly lower than 1/6 as the 1st roll for 1 player is guaranteed not to be double)
4.39 of 25.56 for the winner (makes sense since double are more often than not helpful that the winner gets doubles slightly above average)
4.36 of 24.59 for you thru 80 some games (you are slightly above average so far but given the number of games not a statistically significant difference).

Re: 3 observations in 3 backgammon games

Posted: 17 August 2020, 21:44
by Stealthpup
What really struck me re 1 and 2 was that I had just mentioned to my opponent in #2 (who got a 6-6 immediately after my 6-6) about #1, only to get another 6-6 within, again, a 5-roll span.

Indeed, between us we got something on the order of 16 doubles total over the whole game.

Re: 3 observations in 3 backgammon games

Posted: 28 August 2020, 12:44
by Theacratis
doubles happen consistently when blots are on the bar waiting to come back into play. i would be rich if i could bet on the number of times this has happened. Haven't checked the statistical accuracy of this situation but it seems way beyond coincidence. Could the dice programme and algorithm be broken. i would have thought a simple random dice programme should be easy to implement. I guess its the same for all but that's not the point, something feels fundamentally flawed in this programme.

Re: 3 observations in 3 backgammon games

Posted: 28 August 2020, 21:50
by Jest Phulin
Theacratis wrote: 28 August 2020, 12:44 Haven't checked the statistical accuracy of this situation
Please report when you have done this. Until then there is no point discussing it.