Stealthpup wrote: ↑16 December 2020, 18:41
Just as a datapoint that keeps getting weirder and weirder for me:
My last 9 games in a row, I've gotten fewer doubles than my opponent.
In the last 4, the doubles differential has been -5, -5, -3, and -5.
I understand statistical anomalies, but this is pretty far out there.
Ok let's see.
How can I convert your post into something likely...
Probabilities to have -3 (or less) four times in a row for yourself is 14.2%^4=0.04%. 1/2500. You did 121 games, I agree it's unlikely.
If I do 8x20 rolls, and sum the differential to find -18 or less, I find 0.0078%. (1/12.676)
If I increase the number of rolls to 25: 8x25, I got 0.0127%. (1/7.897)
All these value are between 2k and 20k.
I suppose it's strange for a specific player, but normal for a community.
Just continue playing, this streak of -3/-5 will normally stop really soon.
And never forget the probability to find something strange is I believe 10x more likely if you count: the opposite (you who got more doubles than the other player), a specific roll in a row (for both, you, or the opponent), your number of double, opponent number of double, and lots of more unlikely event (123456, doubles in a row, or something more related to backgammon than random generation like staying blocked 10 turns in a row).