Problems with Die Rolls disparity.

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steve-perkins
Posts: 20
Joined: 21 May 2020, 21:45

Re: Problems with Die Rolls disparity.

Post by steve-perkins »

I did say quite some time ago I wouldn't post anymore on this topic. But the game I'm currently playing 188473868 has seen the German player 'roll' seven 6's in a row!! Apparently the probability of that is 0.0003572. So once again, I say will someone please check the supposedly random die roll generator so that the game is about tactics and strategy and not about who rolled the most 6's in a row.

I've no doubt that I'll get lots of replies saying 7 6's in a row is a common thing and often happens. That there is nothing wrong with the die roll generator, it's perfect. Well delude yourself all you want, just don't bother wasting your time typing it. Just please check the system, or as I said in my original post, it's surely not beyond the ability of a coder to be able to flag these anomalies and adjust or reroll the die when it's gets too egregious.
RobertBr
Posts: 492
Joined: 08 July 2016, 15:57

Re: Problems with Die Rolls disparity.

Post by RobertBr »

Please stop posting this. Using your own lack of knowledge and understanding as a basis for conspiracy theories is rude, inappropriate, and deserving of condemnation and criticism.

Your calculation of the probability is, completely unsurprisingly, completely wrong. The dice rolls are behaving exactly as random dice rolls would be expected to behave. This has been explained to you multiple times.
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steve-perkins
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Joined: 21 May 2020, 21:45

Re: Problems with Die Rolls disparity.

Post by steve-perkins »

As I expected, the BGA random die roll generator is perfect, reply. So now I'm rude, inappropriate and deserving of condemnation and criticism! Clearly I'm some sort of monster, when all I'm saying is there may be an issue. I want BGA to be excellent and I think that the random number system needs looking at. I'm not the only one who notices these things, other players also notice. I'm not the one being rude or out rightly nasty and aggressive.

So, experts in statistics answer me these questions.

What is the probability of 7 6's in a row?

How many 6's in a row constitutes a problem in the system, is it 8, 10, 12 maybe 20 6's in a row? Genuine question, how many would you consider for there to be a problem?

It doesn't just affect Unconditional Surrender, It affects Space Empires 4X and in a recent game of Space Base double 6 was being 'rolled' every 5 or 6 rolls and I know that is a 1 in 36 chance, or to put it another way on average a double 6 is rolled once every 36 rolls, and not every 5-6 rolls. It didn't have any impact on that game because no one expected it and no benefitted from it, but the other players again also noticed and commented on it, without any prompting from me.

I'll almost certainly get another bunch of nasty replies for daring to try and at least ensure that the BGA random die roll generator is fit for purpose and doesn't undermine the brilliant work of getting these games that I really like onto the site. No one has said in any reply that they have checked it, I just keep getting abuse.
RobertBr
Posts: 492
Joined: 08 July 2016, 15:57

Re: Problems with Die Rolls disparity.

Post by RobertBr »

steve-perkins wrote: 27 March 2022, 16:04 ... daring to try and at least ensure that the BGA random die roll generator is fit for purpose and doesn't undermine the brilliant work of getting these games that I really like onto the site. No one has said in any reply that they have checked it, I just keep getting abuse.
Completely untrue. You and every other person who has ever posted this has been directly and immediately answered. You choose to ignore the answers and continue to peddle a baseless conspiracy theory. People who post conspiracy theories have no interest in actually improving the site. Anyone who actually cared would listen to what people are saying to them on subjects they have no understanding of.
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steve-perkins
Posts: 20
Joined: 21 May 2020, 21:45

Re: Problems with Die Rolls disparity.

Post by steve-perkins »

My final post on this.

The odds of 7 6's being rolled are 279,936 to 1. (Yes, the odds of the next dice roll being a 6 is still only 1 in 6) However, that fact is me being stupid apparently. Having a baseless conspiracy, when in fact I never mentioned anything about a conspiracy theory in any of my posts, I just think there is something wrong, maybe with the coding (279,936 to 1). Not that there is someone or something deliberately messing with the dice rolls to screw a player over, that would be a conspiracy.

It only exists in my head was one other comment. I also apparently have a lousy ability to judge probability. (Seeing it with your own eyes and working out the odds is me being to judgmental and not using facts, even though I did use actual die rolls from actual games in my posts). I also don't understand probabilities apparently.

I also should just go away and play euro's if I don't like independent probabilities, I also apparently think past outcomes have an impact on the next one, because I'm just so stupid. Finally I have a lack of knowledge I'm rude and inappropriate and deserving, yes deserving of condemnation and criticism.

So if you think all of that is not nasty and vindictive then take a long look in the mirror. I suggest no one dare criticise anything on these forums, unless you like abuse from bullies. Just take a look at how innocent my original post was to see what vitriol this has caused.
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Lunalol
Posts: 443
Joined: 09 October 2016, 23:21

Re: Problems with Die Rolls disparity.

Post by Lunalol »

Any discussion of probabilities is sterile and no corrections will be made.
If that doesn't work for you, find a no-chance game.
Please close this discussion.
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