Problems with Die Rolls disparity.

[steve-perkins]

I'm currently playing a 1939-1945 scenario and there have been 59 die rolls so far. The axis have totalled 197 and the allies 230. So the Average is 3.34 for the axis and a huge 3.90 for the allies. One sequence of die rolls for the allies was 6,5,6,6,6,5!! Surely this isn't right. We can't do anything to mitigate real life dice, except I've house ruled giving +1 chits to the hard done by to use to try and even up the luck, because losing badly through no fault of your own in a game that lasts a long time, feels like a waste of time.

Can the coders of this world not create a flag in the random die roll system that detects anomaly's like this and at least try to electronically mitigate against it. That way at least if you have a run of bad luck you know that the system will detect this and you know some 'good luck' will be heading your way.

[Lunalol]

That way at least if you have a run of bad luck you know that the system will detect this and you know some 'good luck' will be heading your way.

Could we have same thing in real world ?

[steve-perkins]

That would be nice.

[Romain672]

there have been 59 die rolls so far. The axis have totalled 197 and the allies 230. So the Average is 3.34 for the axis and a huge 3.90 for the allies.

Nice some maths. So.
Let's calculate the difference between two series.

You find 230-197=33. So let's see how many series I have >=33 out of 10000:
86+85+91+75+66+82+67+97+86+87=822.

8.22%...
So yeah your game is on low 'average'. having a difference of 33 or more will happen more than 8% of the time


edit: Just because I'm curious, I will do the same for 50, 75, 100:
>=50: 8+12+10+10+6+7+11+11+5+7=87 => 0.87%
>=75: 1+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0 => 0.01% hum
Ok I will not even try 100.

[RobertBr]

Can the coders of this world not create a flag in the random die roll system that detects anomaly's like this and at least try to electronically mitigate against it.

No, because that is not how the game works in real life. If this had bothered the designer he would have used dependent probabilities not independent ones. Sometimes you get a bad string of dice rolls.

[Lord Vasta]

Can the coders of this world not create a flag in the random die roll system that detects anomaly's like this and at least try to electronically mitigate against it.

No, because that is not how the game works in real life. If this had bothered the designer he would have used dependent probabilities not independent ones. Sometimes you get a bad string of dice rolls.

Yes, strings of bad rolls happen. The game has a lot of the dice rolls over a campaign. Continue to record the results and see if the pendulum doesn't swing in the Axis favor at times.

[Dren608]

One thing to make sure you note is not just the "raw" numbers on the dice. This game has Combat results that depend on "Splits"
IF all those 5 and 6 die rolls were met with 4 and 5 counter parts then there is not that great an impact. The Raw numbers tell a tale but the real influence on the game is "when" and "by how much" your Dice differ.

[jonathanmcc]

I recently finished the full campaign, losing as the Allies. We tried to keep a rough score of how many 6-1 results each of us got.
It was roughly the same - certainly not different enough to complain about the random number generator, but really painful when they occurred.

Intuitively, at the end I felt I had suffered more from the rolls, the worst being the Germans had use of 6 fair weather turns in 1941.
This predictably led to a Russian collapse in 42.

However, the stats at the end of the game show I had more 6s than 1s and the distribution is pretty even:

• Roll Count %
  1 231 15%
  2 251 17%
  3 248 16%
  4 263 17%
  5 261 17%
  6 267 18%
  1521

So the random number generation looks fine, I just fell foul of Vasta's Laws

[RobertBr]

Intuitively, at the end I felt I had suffered more from the rolls, the worst being the Germans had use of 6 fair weather turns in 1941.

This is a different issue. There are a handful of important dice rolls for weather (how many fair weather turns do the Germans get on the Eastern Front; how many fair weather turns the allies get in the end game. Maybe a dozen dice rolls in total. Compared to the nearly a thousand combat rolls that occur in the game. The weather rolls are going to be much more swingy than the combat rolls.
But in general wargamers have lousy ability to judge probability and tend to hyper-focus on rolls that went against them. In this case you mention the 1941 fair weather turns (I presume you were playing a historical opening and the Soviets collapsed in 42; if the Germans took 90 NW in one summer offensive you don't get to blame the dice for that) but you don't mention how many fair weather turns you got as the allies in the endgame - suggesting you noticed the adverse results more strongly.

[steve-perkins]

What is wrong with the electronic die rolls in this game!? In another game I've just had 7 rolls 1,2,1,3,4,4,1 a total of 16 or 2.3 per roll my opponent 3,5,6,2,6,2,3 a total of 27 or 3.9 per roll.

So someone will say over a million die rolls it will average out. But this sequence of rolls has just wiped out a whole game month of attacks. there isn't a million rolls in the game and each one counts and as someone as pointed out some rolls are more important than others.

No wonder Napoleon preferred lucky generals to good ones.