strange games

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Romain672
Posts: 1014
Joined: 05 April 2016, 13:53

Re: strange games

Post by Romain672 »

Yeah ok, I agree with others about it's really likely he is cheating. (I'm often on the other side on these spots).

I checked about 20 games of him and pretty early (from what i read here) focused on one specific point: his rolls when one of his token is at the top and he is still going (so if you check replay, I strongly encourage you to skip to turns 70+).
He never roll badly when one of those black token where on the top. He often (but not always) still going when one of his token is at the top.

(This game specifiquely look very odd: 84207926. He is rolling for a 3&4, to get at least three 3.)


It look like to me he rarely cheat. He only does it by moment, close to the end game. Which explain that his rolls are pretty average.
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Een
Posts: 3854
Joined: 16 June 2010, 19:52

Re: strange games

Post by Een »

simonbe wrote: 18 November 2021, 13:26 It's clear this player plays very suboptimal, and then winning 2 season in a row that just doesn't happen :p
Please keep the facts straight. She won season 6. Season 7 is ongoing, she is leading at the moment but it's not done, season is only halfway. The second from season 6 is also currently in the top 10 by the way. Should that be impossible too?
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simonbe
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Joined: 23 March 2020, 11:30

Re: strange games

Post by simonbe »

Een wrote: 18 November 2021, 15:40
simonbe wrote: 18 November 2021, 13:26 It's clear this player plays very suboptimal, and then winning 2 season in a row that just doesn't happen :p
Please keep the facts straight. She won season 6. Season 7 is ongoing, she is leading at the moment but it's not done, season is only halfway. The second from season 6 is also currently in the top 10 by the way. Should that be impossible too?
I would find it possible to win 100 games in a row.(and like winning 3 seasons in a row) but only if you play reasonable lol. Not really going to argue over this. Maybe I'll try it myself if I can find a way to cheat it.
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Silene
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Joined: 23 October 2013, 17:50

Re: strange games

Post by Silene »

These games indeed seem suspicious. My idea: maybe something (that can be found in the source code on a specific game state) is used to seed the RNG when requesting a rand()? That might make it possible to execute the rand-function externally on the same seed and by that know the result in advance which would explain reckless and yet successful play like these games. Not saying this is even possible because in fact I have no knowledge on how BGA-RNG is implemented or called. However - something like this wouldn't need to tamper with anything nor would it produce abnormal user patterns.
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beliwan
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Joined: 21 March 2020, 17:00

Re: strange games

Post by beliwan »

Een wrote: 18 November 2021, 15:40 Please keep the facts straight. She won season 6. Season 7 is ongoing, she is leading at the moment but it's not done, season is only halfway. The second from season 6 is also currently in the top 10 by the way. Should that be impossible too?
999IF wrote: 17 November 2021, 13:53 In fact, that's what keeps me from playing. BGA should react.
Maybe just removing the turn-based game from Arena mode is enough, but I'm not an expert.
I believe this player more than our 'suspect'. I wanted to ask her for a reaction, the best way to shed a clear light on the matter, but unfortunately the friendship function has just changed, so I need an acceptance first. Is not going to happen I think :-(
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beliwan
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Joined: 21 March 2020, 17:00

Re: strange games

Post by beliwan »

simonbe wrote: 18 November 2021, 16:11 I would find it possible to win 100 games in a row.(and like winning 3 seasons in a row) but only if you play reasonable lol. Not really going to argue over this. Maybe I'll try it myself if I can find a way to cheat it.
I consider myself a decent player, but did not manage it to even be on fire (10 in a row) once :-(
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donkeykong66
Posts: 53
Joined: 08 July 2015, 11:39

Re: strange games

Post by donkeykong66 »

I just looked into Dörte her 32 game winning streak, between game 214559557 and 216274931, of which 21 were won by completing 3 columns all at once on the final turn of the game, and some by completing 2 columns on the final turn of the game. I also agree that some of her games, and even some of her moves during the games she wins, are very normal and reasonable: losing the game, occassional busts, stopping halfway through with reasonable progress.

As Ranior mentioned, during these games, if she closes a column and decides to continue rolling, during this streak of games she never busts. I decided to look at the 21 games where she completes 3 columns all at once, and calculate the odds that she doesn't bust *after* completing the first column (a point where "regular" gameplay dictates you should likely stop). It turns out that taking into account the number she was progressing on, the odds of not busting on any of those rolls (i.e. after completing 1 or even 2 columns already) is roughly 1 in 10^18.

Some notes, comment, and caveats:
- Just to be fully clear: the odds calculated are "given that she already closed a column, and then continued rolling, what are the odds she obtained the results she did". I think all of us here don't deny that some of her moves and sometimes even full games are played legitimately and in line with what other (strong) players would decide to do. However, the "continue rolling after completing 1 or 2 columns" strategy goes against all common strategy for this game, and this is the part where Dörte clearly takes a different approach to everyone else playing the game. I am looking into the odds that this (counterintuitive) strategy pays off, and in particular pays off as consistently as it does.
- This only considers those games where 3 columns were closed in the last turn, taking into account games where 2 columns were closed on the last turn will even further reduce the odds of this streak happening.
- This only considers this streak of 32 games mentioned. As Ranior mentioned, we can't seem to find a game where she completes 1 or 2 columns, continues rolling, and then busts. Having such a game would really help her case, and I'm definitely open to seeing such a game.

All in all, can't stop really is a push your luck game, and there are many strategies and lucky moments that happen all the time. You see people try to complete all three columns first move of the game, you see people push 678 all the way to the top and complete one of those columns, and all kinds of "unlikely" strategies indeed work out all the time. I bet there's even players that sometimes attempt the same strategy Dörte uses (continue rolling even when 1 or 2 columns have been completed) and it does indeed work out sometimes.

The point everyone here is arguing is that this specific strategy (continuing to roll when already having completed some columns) shouldn't work out all the time, and particularly not 21 times in the span of 32 games, with the odds described as above. Once again, if someone can point to a game where Dörte attempts this particular strategy and busts, that would be of great help in her defence, but so far we can't find any such game.

I'm sure there's many things to nitpick on the calculation of that number, and many ways to better calculate the odds of Dörte her results, but I think it's a good ballpark number to start with.
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donkeykong66
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Joined: 08 July 2015, 11:39

Re: strange games

Post by donkeykong66 »

Een wrote: 18 November 2021, 15:40
simonbe wrote: 18 November 2021, 13:26 It's clear this player plays very suboptimal, and then winning 2 season in a row that just doesn't happen :p
Please keep the facts straight. She won season 6. Season 7 is ongoing, she is leading at the moment but it's not done, season is only halfway. The second from season 6 is also currently in the top 10 by the way. Should that be impossible too?
We're not saying that the current #2 being in the top 10 is unlikely (in fact I would say that it is actually likely), what we're arguing is that this player follows a strategy with a (significantly) lower probability of success than other strategies, and that this strategy is disproportionally successful. I (and many others here) understand that "unlikely" doesn't mean "impossible", and that many "unlikely" events will be seen on BGA.

However, seeing the same unlikely event, multiple times in short succession, by the same player with not a single occurence of the same event failing, that is where unlikely starts to turn into impossible.
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dschingis27
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Joined: 27 June 2015, 18:30

Re: strange games

Post by dschingis27 »

Een wrote: 18 November 2021, 11:38 Anyway, probably not the last thread we see on BGA about "impossible luck" or "impossible bad luck" ;)
I am an experienced professional statistician and I assure you that the "luck" we see in this case is indeed the closest you get to impossible luck. I defended BGAs RNG several times and I will continue to do so. But this is something different, not a usual case of misinterpreting probability of rare events.

The evidence was layed out nicely by Ranior. This is the strongest part: "If Dorte caps a column, they NEVER bust on continued rolls. I just watched like 30-40 of their most recent games and I could not find a single instance of such a thing, yet they roll in that precarious position very often."
It's probably possible for someone to win 27 of 30 games if you play very good but not if you play in the way the accused player does.

I am glad you looked into this and puzzled you haven't found anything. For me It's absolutely not about guilt, I really just want to know and want BGA to know what is going on here. Maybe it's the best way to ask the accused player directly. Punishment is not the main concern here.

If it is of any worth, so you get sprockitz, Ranior, and me, + some others and we are all kind of convinced that this is cheating.
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RedAlert39
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Joined: 23 January 2021, 20:53

Re: strange games

Post by RedAlert39 »

Een wrote: 18 November 2021, 11:38 We looked into this and didn't find anything fishy:
- the code is sound as far as we can see (managed server side)
- usage patterns have nothing abnormal (no weird requests, no unusual frequency)
- manipulating the database directly is not possible (except by breaching our servers) and in case of a loss the turn goes directly to the other player and notifications are sent immediately, so changing anything would cause glitches visible by opponents and/or in replays.
Are you willing to share the implementation code (or at least the piece responsible for rolling the dice)? Just because everything is handled server side doesn't mean it isn't vulnerable.
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