I just looked into Dörte her 32 game winning streak, between game 214559557 and 216274931, of which 21 were won by completing 3 columns all at once on the final turn of the game, and some by completing 2 columns on the final turn of the game. I also agree that some of her games, and even some of her moves during the games she wins, are very normal and reasonable: losing the game, occassional busts, stopping halfway through with reasonable progress.
As Ranior mentioned, during these games, if she closes a column and decides to continue rolling, during this streak of games she never busts. I decided to look at the 21 games where she completes 3 columns all at once, and calculate the odds that she doesn't bust *after* completing the first column (a point where "regular" gameplay dictates you should likely stop). It turns out that taking into account the number she was progressing on, the odds of not busting on any of those rolls (i.e. after completing 1 or even 2 columns already) is roughly 1 in 10^18.
Some notes, comment, and caveats:
- Just to be fully clear: the odds calculated are "given that she already closed a column, and then continued rolling, what are the odds she obtained the results she did". I think all of us here don't deny that some of her moves and sometimes even full games are played legitimately and in line with what other (strong) players would decide to do. However, the "continue rolling after completing 1 or 2 columns" strategy goes against all common strategy for this game, and this is the part where Dörte clearly takes a different approach to everyone else playing the game. I am looking into the odds that this (counterintuitive) strategy pays off, and in particular pays off as consistently as it does.
- This only considers those games where 3 columns were closed in the last turn, taking into account games where 2 columns were closed on the last turn will even further reduce the odds of this streak happening.
- This only considers this streak of 32 games mentioned. As Ranior mentioned, we can't seem to find a game where she completes 1 or 2 columns, continues rolling, and then busts. Having such a game would really help her case, and I'm definitely open to seeing such a game.
All in all, can't stop really is a push your luck game, and there are many strategies and lucky moments that happen all the time. You see people try to complete all three columns first move of the game, you see people push 678 all the way to the top and complete one of those columns, and all kinds of "unlikely" strategies indeed work out all the time. I bet there's even players that sometimes attempt the same strategy Dörte uses (continue rolling even when 1 or 2 columns have been completed) and it does indeed work out sometimes.
The point everyone here is arguing is that this specific strategy (continuing to roll when already having completed some columns) shouldn't work out all the time, and particularly not 21 times in the span of 32 games, with the odds described as above. Once again, if someone can point to a game where Dörte attempts this particular strategy and busts, that would be of great help in her defence, but so far we can't find any such game.
I'm sure there's many things to nitpick on the calculation of that number, and many ways to better calculate the odds of Dörte her results, but I think it's a good ballpark number to start with.