Hey, sorry I took so long to get back to this fascinating discussion.
As cigma wrote, I thought farm was very valuable on this board with these goals, but I disagree with cigma about lords being much more important then merchants.
In my experience in >2 player games, if I focus on blocking other people's merchants, they still get a few and I get none or fewer, so I lose out. If I focus on getting my own merchants, I usually get more than players who try to block. On a 2 player game, I think blocking vs. connecting are more equivalent tactics, since you only have to block one person and can better anticipate where they might go... but even in 2 player I prefer to try to make connections as well, since the one other player's ability to block is going to be more limited.
As for paddock... yes, it's really important for flexibility, but in this case with lords I think I decided I'd rather start the game with a tile lead right away, in a way that still gives me a very good chance of getting a paddock in my first few turns.
So what I ended up doing was taking that farm that diamant and Silene had a debate about, but I started out taking it from the forest side without being adjacent to grass. This would guarantee that I could play somewhere else on the board, somewhere with grass. I reasoned there was quite a good chance I could get the grass paddock, and if someone happened to have covered both grass tiles on that paddock, then I could use my farm to take an oasis with a good chance at the other paddock on the next turn. And as a backup to the backup, in the unlikely chance that I would be locked out from both paddocks, I could use that oasis to play on yet another new area of the board, since I wouldn't yet have any pieces next to desert (even if I drew forest on the second turn, I could use farm to play for the oasis in the forest, and still avoid being adjacent to desert).'
Another way to put this is: Either I would get a paddock on my 2nd or 3rd turn, or if both my opponents took paddocks and blocked me from getting them on those first three turns, then I would a) still be able to get to three different areas of the board AND b) have a very significant tile lead on both of them, due to picking up extra-settlement tiles on both my first two turns, meaning I would likely lock up lords despite not being the last player.
I ended up winning the came with a lead in all four scoring categories, including merchants. Although I think the other players could've played better and made it a closer game, I do think I had a solid advantage throughout the game, and my starting move was a good one.
Here is the replay for anyone who wants to see how it played out:
https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=212707822