cheating system if you do not pay

[frogstar_A]

Without a doubt a pay to win site. Premium members get "lucky" rolls and draws constantly against non-premies.

Without a doubt that isn't true.

As others have stated look at the Arena leagues - plenty of people high up the table in luck based games who are non premium. Surely they didn't get there by just never getting matched against premium opponents.

[vahasn7]

It is definitely a pay to win website. i mainly play catan. i have been observing the in-game rolls for a little more than a 100 games. now whenever i play, i could almost always guess the next dice roll (1 or 2 numbers). it so happened that in a few games, i was predicting the rolls to the shock of other non-premium players who have hysterically laughed and joined me in the guessing game. the premium member got annoyed, of course.

i have devised a personal strategy to beat this. but i am unable to make use of it all the time cos getting the correct first settlement numbers is very crucial "w.r.t." the settlement numbers of the premium member. it means, even when the game begins i know that i have definitely lost the game or i have a chance to win.

also, the way the roll machine helps the premium member is unbelievable. its deeply programmed within. when a roll churning hex is blocked by robber, bga immediately churns out a 7 to release it. block it again, another crucial premium number starts rolling.

yet, i have figured out a few ways to confuse the system and fool it to roll my hex numbers. those ways depend on the board and placements.
i am not going to list those ways here. if you look carefully at each game you play, you will devise those methods yourself.

to other premium players who are constantly wondering why their win rate is bad despite the pay-to-win system...

its not about winning. its about getting insanely ridiculous rolls on your hex numbers. its up to you to use it properly or waste it. also, if you have made bad first settlements and got your roads cut off, nothing can save you. yet, you will see the rolling system sadly churning out your numbers and giving you 7s and so on to help you. its quite dramatic to watch it. like a broken vending machine. if you are genuinely a good player, you will be formidable being premium. if there are multiple premium players, the system helps all of them and by the end of the game, chooses one favourite among them who generally strategises better.

to my fellow gamers.... i value your opinions as long as they are devoid of sarcasm. i have a major in mathematics and have been a senior AAA game programmer. that doesn't mean anything big about me. its just that i know probability theory and game programming well enough to give lectures on them. also, i am playing catan for the last 20 years. i also have played in * long ago which had 80000 members at its peak in mid 2000s. so i know the game well enough to know whats random and whats in-built.

there is nothing wrong to be a pay to win website. how else would companies make money? having worked in the game industry, i know that. but the situation is sad. to be publicly honest is bad for businesses of this kind. still, i commend the programmers in bga who have made such a seemingly random system which changes the rolls based on the premium members' situation. its both annoying and also quite impressive.

you may ask.

why dont i leave the website?
i like the graphics and interface here. its the closest to * and also the real board. other websites dont have such good graphics and simple interface.

why dont i pay?
i play only catan. not interested in other board games. i have no direct benefits from a premium membership. i can wait for a game. also, if i pay and see a very good non-premium player struggle against my rolls, i would feel utterly guilty. not victorious. that's seal clubbing.

start with these questions if you wish to see how deep the rabbit hole goes.
how many at the top 100 arena winners are non-premium players?
how many of your last 100 games were won by non-premium players?

then dive in.

thanks for reading.

*Moderator edit: please do not specifically name other gaming platforms

[Romain672]

If you aren't a troll...

Many of the players defending the system should have less experience than you, but still know enough to second guess themselves if something is wrong.
I just believe you was lucky / was hit by confirmation biais. (most likely a combinaison of the two)

Just start again from scratch to try to guess the numbers without cheating, do it 100 times, and then share the results (and note the numbers guessed (and the fails). Guessing a 7 is less surprising than guessing a 12).

how many at the top 100 arena winners are non-premium players?
how many of your last 100 games were won by non-premium players?

Maybe because those who are prenium are those who are more invested/who plays more?
Maybe because they can start a game more easily? So can play more.
Can more easily specialise in one particular setting (included number of players)?

[Jegpeg]

As you have a maths major do it properly set up a null hypothesis (e.g. Premiums roll a 7 on 1/6th of their rolls) and a null hypothesis (they roll more than that). DEcide which rolls will be included in the trial (e.g the next 300 rolls by preiums in games you are involved in).
Post here (or in Catan) the details of your experiment before you start and then post the results along with the confidence level of rejected the null hypothesis.

Accusing hte site of cheating is a pretty strong claim but if you can reject the null hypothesis with 99% certainty I would suggest you repeat the test possibly with more trials. If you reject it at 99.99% confident I think you have made your case.

[Jellby]

If people want to pay to win inconsequential games in some website, they're welcome to do it, and if BGA wants to take advantage of it (which I don't believe), kudos for them.

[RobertBr]

... i have a major in mathematics ...

If that were true it would be a sad indictment of the educational system but I think given the rest of your post we can take it with a pinch of salt - as the Cohen brother's once said "we made everything else up why can't we make that up".

[vahasn7]

... i have a major in mathematics ...

If that were true it would be a sad indictment of the educational system

Thats a cheap reply hitting one below the belt. I do not want to honour that with another reply. I am writing here only to say that this is why I refrained from writing the observations here. So do several others who talk to me privately about the same pay to get-good-rolls aspect. Anyway, wish you happy sarcastic commenting.

[vahasn7]

As you have a maths major do it properly set up a null hypothesis (e.g. Premiums roll a 7 on 1/6th of their rolls) and a null hypothesis (they roll more than that). DEcide which rolls will be included in the trial (e.g the next 300 rolls by preiums in games you are involved in).
Post here (or in Catan) the details of your experiment before you start and then post the results along with the confidence level of rejected the null hypothesis.

Accusing hte site of cheating is a pretty strong claim but if you can reject the null hypothesis with 99% certainty I would suggest you repeat the test possibly with more trials. If you reject it at 99.99% confident I think you have made your case.

Makes sense. Its just that I have less time available away from work and family. I spend that time in playing some games. Some day I will put my observations together and publish it here. Its all about time and nothing more. By the way, it is not about the number of times a number rolls. Its about the timing of those rolls! When what number rolls to aid a premium member towards a win. Winning depends on his strategy.

Thank you for your non-sarcastic reply.

[vahasn7]

If people want to pay to win inconsequential games in some website, they're welcome to do it, and if BGA wants to take advantage of it (which I don't believe), kudos for them.

Yes. If BGA does it, its fine by me too. How else could the cost of those servers get covered? I am trying to discuss possible strategies to circumvent it, if there is an identifiable pattern.

[vahasn7]

Thank you for your genuine response. Appreciation for not using sarcasm.

If you aren't a troll...

No. I am not. I am a passionate Catan enthusiast since 2004. BGA has the best online interface for the game. Yet, I am not happy with the non-random rolls. The other Catan websites which have lower quality interface has true random rolls. Having worked in data stream analysis for decades, I can tell a random stream from the other. Its instinct but it cannot be proven in public unless the data is shared. I get it.

I just believe you was lucky / was hit by confirmation biais. (most likely a combinaison of the two)

Possible. But my new strategy works every time when I can successfully place the first two settlements based on my premium-specific-hex-number theory. If those hexes are occupied by others, I already know which numbers will fall more and they do. Agreed that I may need to play a 100 more games using the same strategy to be 100% sure.

...without cheating, do it 100 times, and then share the results

Somewhere in the forum or elsewhere people have discussed about a possible php hack but I think the rolls come directly from the server. Anyway, I am not interested in cheating. If so, I would rather play the game alone with myself. Whats the fun in that? I don't enjoy cheating. I stand to gain nothing from it.

Its difficult to note down the rolls in a sheet and focus on the gameplay (especially when its related to premium hexes) at the same time. Also, I did not write this down to start a riot against bga. I did it to see whether others who have the same/similar experience would voice out. If some day I am able to note the rolls and play at the same time, I will do so and share the results here.

Maybe because those who are premium are those who are more invested/who plays more?
Maybe because they can start a game more easily? So can play more.
Can more easily specialise in one particular setting (included number of players)?

Plausible theory. Cannot deny. But a non-premium player who reached Rank 1 in an Arena season told me that the day after he reached the top position, he lost 9 games in a row. He said all his hex numbers simply stopped rolling and he did not know why. All those games were won by a premium player. That's not coincidence.

Also, the day after I posted this comment, BGA has reduced my Karma from 100 to 50. They have mentioned a chat that I had written in a game. I wrote "bga working very hard for money". That was cos the premium player had unique 9s and 5s and only they were rolling like insanely crazy. Other numbers simply stopped. I did not even insult the player. I just wrote that out of mere frustration. Because of that, I could not reply to this forum post until today. They had restricted my access to chat and forum. A few days ago I brought my Karma to 65. BGA reduced it again to 50 for reporting on 3 insulting users twice. I reported again cos my previous reports were not visible. Looks like BGA has taken notice of me and wants to silence me. So be it.

Well, I am sensing that something is happening behind the screen. I will go silent from now on. I don't care about BGA or any other board games here. I am here only for Catan. If I find another website with similar interface and true random rolls, I will switch in no time. Until then, I will play testing my new found strategy. Thank you again for your comment.