Cheating or luck?

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CaractacusPots
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Joined: 31 August 2020, 18:08

Re: Cheating or luck?

Post by CaractacusPots »

Jellby wrote:Cheating with dice would require quite a sophisticate AI. You're right that it's hard to program a good one, and that's (one of the reasons) why it's not done. Neither AI nor cheating.
No it wouldn't require any sophistication at all. Simple computer programming logic.

1. Am I behind in the match yes/no?

2. Is opponent on the bar?

3. What points can opponent enter his piece on?

4. Select dice throw from random list of 200 throws that does NOT contain any of those points

Easy

Equally

1. Am I behind in the match and likely to lose a gammon yes/no?

2. Select high doubles throws from the previously generated list of 200 dice throws

3. Repeat until desired outcome met (i.e. lose match 1 point, win match)


On the topic of what is random or not we could start an entire thread. Of course nothing in the universe is random, it's all cause and effect. For the limited human mind it suffices that things are so complex as to be not able to be computed by the human mind and thus not predictable in advance. On top of that the human mind requires that dice throws or cards etc tend to even out and that "nasty" fluctuations don't happen very often. In reality such fluctuations can happen in the universe but for humans and gaming and indeed gambling, a plethora of such fluctuations is deemed undesirable and unhelpful to any game.

My opinion is that the BG here is not random and I suspect that is why so many half-decent BG players post so many threads about the game.
I just treat it as a kind of solitaire idle pastime in which I expect wins and losses will be largely evened out over time. Just something to not be taken too seriously.
Last edited by CaractacusPots on 09 February 2024, 20:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Romain672
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Re: Cheating or luck?

Post by Romain672 »

CaractacusPots wrote: 26 December 2023, 23:32if there did exist true RNG usage in an internet backgammon game then all the decent players would consistently pawn the lesser players and the latter would simply get bored and go to some other website where they seem to win.
While most of your points look hard to talk about, that one look doable.
It's just wrong, you find games with no randomness, first example which come to my mind are RTS like Age of Empire or Starcraft. On those games, the rng part will be really small. But chess look a way better example. If you remove the rng of who goes first, and don't take into account external factors (who are you playing with, what the others player playstyle is, how well you are today, how well the other player is today, how much the first mistake you will do will cost to you...), there will be no randomness.

If what you said was true, you would just have to create a similar game of backgammon but with more randomness. (like per example each 6 you roll let you roll an extra dice. And if it's not enough, you can just add even more randomness)
At one point, the best players will not be able to compete with new players.

And since there is a lot of games possibles, some of those would get exacly the right amound of skill versus randomness.
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Romain672
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Re: Cheating or luck?

Post by Romain672 »

And what you think per example of the luck factor per example on 'Legendary Inventors'?

I got 90% winrate against most players, but it's so easy to mess my plan in maybe half of my games. Just don't give me what I need, per example if I need a 3, just do an age 3 with no 3.
The probability of that is really low: At 2 players, you will see 30 out of 52 rewards. There is eight 3. Let said we got one of them during the first two ages. So we will see 10 rewards out of 32, and there is seven 3s remaining. That give (25*24*23*22*21*20*19*18*17*16)/(32*31*30*29*28*27*26*25*24*23) = 5.06% chance of that happening.
And yet, that happen rarely. That happen about 5.06% of the time :)

Is backgammon, and all others most luck based game in another category of Legendary Inventors?
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Jellby
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Re: Cheating or luck?

Post by Jellby »

It's impossible to know to know what the victory rate for top players would be in a backgammon game with true randomness, because such game does not exist, according to CaractacusPots.
bckgmn
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Joined: 22 April 2023, 00:29

Re: Cheating or luck?

Post by bckgmn »

Romain672 wrote: 27 December 2023, 18:48
any opinions about this game?
I have 7 in and perfect placement, he has 1 still out of home camp and then....
https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=467182178

A brilliant player helped me analyze it and here it is:
"Of course I was interested in a computer analysis (as probably you are). Before the 6-6, white has a winning chance of 0.21%. I have to confess that I am surprised that white wins 1 out of 476 games from this position. I did the highest possible analysis level... "
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TheRealPeHa
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Re: Cheating or luck?

Post by TheRealPeHa »

The German BG-Team played 2015 in Budapest against the Croatian BG-Team for the Title of the European Backgammon Championships. After 4 single matches the standing is 2:2, so that there is to play a deciding consultation match for 7 points. In this match germany leaded 6:0 and had a strong position in the current game. After analyze with professionell software extreme gammon 2 the Croatian Team had an equity of 1.2% to win the match. But things happens, a big turn and they got the title. It was a live tournament and I saw a lot of crazy turns in several live tournament too. So iam sure, that there is no difference between Live an BGA-backgammon and no cheating at BGA.
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Romain672
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Joined: 05 April 2016, 13:53

Re: Cheating or luck?

Post by Romain672 »

bckgmn wrote: 29 January 2024, 17:19any opinions about this game?
I have 7 in and perfect placement, he has 1 still out of home camp and then....
https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=467182178

A brilliant player helped me analyze it and here it is:
"Of course I was interested in a computer analysis (as probably you are). Before the 6-6, white has a winning chance of 0.21%. I have to confess that I am surprised that white wins 1 out of 476 games from this position. I did the highest possible analysis level... "
I'm not good at backgammon, so I can't said anything about that part.

You got 5k games though, so that should have happened about 10 times for you and 10 times against you.
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euklid314
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Re: Cheating or luck?

Post by euklid314 »

TheRealPeHa wrote: 29 January 2024, 22:41 The German BG-Team played 2015 in Budapest against the Croatian BG-Team for the Title of the European Backgammon Championships. After 4 single matches the standing is 2:2, so that there is to play a deciding consultation match for 7 points. In this match germany leaded 6:0 and had a strong position in the current game. After analyze with professionell software extreme gammon 2 the Croatian Team had an equity of 1.2% to win the match. But things happens, a big turn and they got the title. It was a live tournament and I saw a lot of crazy turns in several live tournament too. So iam sure, that there is no difference between Live an BGA-backgammon and no cheating at BGA.
I am curious: Were you competing for the German team or did you only spectate? Are you still active (Team World Champs Stockholm 2024?)?
Im am not (yet :-) good enough to represent my nations national team but that may be a future goal of mine...
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TheRealPeHa
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Re: Cheating or luck?

Post by TheRealPeHa »

euklid314 wrote: 30 January 2024, 19:04
TheRealPeHa wrote: 29 January 2024, 22:41 The German BG-Team played 2015 in Budapest against the Croatian BG-Team for the Title of the European Backgammon Championships. After 4 single matches the standing is 2:2, so that there is to play a deciding consultation match for 7 points. In this match germany leaded 6:0 and had a strong position in the current game. After analyze with professionell software extreme gammon 2 the Croatian Team had an equity of 1.2% to win the match. But things happens, a big turn and they got the title. It was a live tournament and I saw a lot of crazy turns in several live tournament too. So iam sure, that there is no difference between Live an BGA-backgammon and no cheating at BGA.
I am curious: Were you competing for the German team or did you only spectate? Are you still active (Team World Champs Stockholm 2024?)?
Im am not (yet :-) good enough to represent my nations national team but that may be a future goal of mine...
In 2015, the current WBGF organised the second European Championship, in which Germany took part for the first time. I primarily took part as a representative of the German backgammon association, but had the honour of playing as a substitute in the team with Jürgen Orlowski, Tobias Hellwag, Jan Jacobowitz and Martin Birkhahn and also played 3 matches. There are now a lot of strong players in Germany and I'm a long way from playing again.

However, since then I have taken part in numerous national and international tournaments and have also organised regional tournaments myself. I am the web administrator of WBIF International and WBIF Germany. As Tournament Director of WBIF Germany, I organise and analyse around 4000 matches a year for the German backgammon tournament scene.

In my role as tournament director, I have often been approached with suspicions of cheating on online websites, without exception from weaker players. In my opinion, the discussion is not worthwhile. The impression is usually based on a one-sided perception, a misinterpretation of probability (unlikely is not impossible) and/or a lack of understanding of the game.

The cheating problem in backgammon does not result from the dice on the online servers but, as with other mind games, from the unauthorised use of analysis software by players.
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euklid314
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Joined: 06 April 2020, 22:56

Re: Cheating or luck?

Post by euklid314 »

Very interesting, PeHa. Fully agree with your opinion on computer dice and possible cheating with XG analysis, of course.

On BGA there is probably no big problem with players using software help because Backgammon is just one of many games here. Not much prestige and no money to be won here...

I would be highly interested which win percentage a player with PR 0 could achieve on BGA (or any other platform) but of course I will not test it out. Somewhere around 75%, I guess...
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