Strategies for bidding nil

[mickalot]

The "Strategy Tips" section for Spades has some interesting probability calculations for advanced players to think about, but it doesn't necessarily proscribe what to do with that information. Do people know if there's a good general-purpose location where Spades conventions or strategies are discussed? It would be great to be able to point new/inexperienced Spades players to a place where they can read up to become stronger players.

(Yes, we could point people to Google, but when I tried, most results weren't for the variations we play on BGA, or they gave questionable advice in a format that doesn't give room for people to ask questions or discuss nuance.)

For example, here's a brain dump of my thinking about nil bids, hopefully at a level consumable by players of all levels:

Disclaimer: these thoughts are in no way authoritative or comprehensive -- these are just some opinions informed by my experience playing and talking about the game with others. Alternate perspectives welcome!

Thoughts about bidding nil

1. When considering a nil bid vs another bid, consider the leverage of that bid. In most of the BGA variants, making a nil is so rewarding that many games turn on a team taking sufficient advantage of their nil opportunities. For example, consider the hand {AK432 of clubs, AK432 of diamonds, 432 of spades} -- that hand could almost certainly make a 4 bid (and maybe even 5 or 6), but as a nil bid, it's worth more than twice as much!
2. Bidding nil with an A of spades is obviously foolhardy, as you cannot avoid taking that trick. Making a nil bid with a K of spades is highly dependent upon the location of the A and is strongly discouraged. Some players even frown upon bidding nil with the Q (or even J!) of spades in all but the most dire of circumstances. Be aware that different players have different risk tolerances, and bidding and missing a nil because of an uncoverable high spade is a quick way to get on your partner's bad side.
3. Bidding nil with four or more spades is strongly discouraged. The odds are not good of your partner having four or more spades to cover you, and even if they _do_ have four, they may end up spending one or more of them to trump a non-spades suit to protect your nil. There are unusual situations where people do attempt (and make) this bid, but this is a high-risk gamble and the odds are not generally in their favor.
4. Bidding nil with an A (or K) in any three-card-or-shorter suit is frowned upon. If you only have three cards, odds are good that partner also has three-or-more cards. If the suit is led and the opponents don't see the A drop, they will likely re-lead the suit in an effort to set the nil and partner will be unable to drop a spade to protect you. (Some risk-averse players frown upon bidding nil when holding Qxx for this reason.)
5. On the other hand, bidding nil with an A (or K) in any four-card-or-longer suit is usually ok, assuming that the rest of the cards in that suit are suitable for nil. If you have four-or-more cards, either (1) partner has three-or-fewer cards and will be able to trump any lead that forces you to play A/K, or (2) partner has four-or-more in that suit, leaving five-or-fewer in both opponents' hands, making it less likely that opponents will have the opportunity to lead it four times.
6. In general, it's more important to have _enough_ low cards for ducking than worrying about high cards. So holding an eight-card suit of AKQJT742 is probably fine, even though you're holding the top five cards of the suit, because there are only five other cards in the suit distributed among all other players, meaning that the suit is unlikely to be led more than twice, and your 4/2 are great cards for ducking those tricks.
7. It is usually safer to bid nil in the third-or-fourth seat, after you partner has bid. Your tolerance for risk should be roughly proportional to their bid, so that if they bid 1, you should consider Qxx or Jxx suits to be somewhat risky, whereas a 5 or 6 bid may encourage you to take a chance on a suit with Kxx. In the fourth seat, this becomes even more nuanced: you should also consider the sum bid so far -- a 12+ bid means that everyone will be too busy making their bid to spend a lot of energy trying to set you, while a 9-bid means that everyone will be ducking tricks, so you may be signing your partner up to take a lot of those bags when covering you. Also, you should consider whether the opponents' stronger hand is immediately before you or immediately after you. Ideally, the stronger hand will be before you, so that you'll get to see their high cards before you choose what to discard on any given trick.
8. During bidding, once an opponent has bid nil, it can become easier for later bidders to consider a nil bid, also. The best place to bid double-nil is in the fourth seat, when you have full information about the relative strengths of all other players, but you can even consider bidding nil in the second or third seats, too. Guidelines for a second nil bid in a hand are subtle/nuanced, but here are some general thoughts:
   
   1. If you bid nil in the second seat, you deprive your partner of the opportunity to bid nil in the fourth seat, so that usually indicates that you're holding a high-quality nil hand. Depending on circumstances, this bid may be considered to give your partner permission to try and attack/set the other nil.
   2. Bidding nil in the third seat means that opponent's nil (in the 2nd seat) came without them knowing whether or not their partner would be able to cover, so chances are good that their nil is strong. Your nil should presumably be fairly solid, and since partner will be forced to play _before_ both nils in the order of play, you are probably asking them to make covering your nil their first priority (over setting the opponent).
   3. Bidding nil in the fourth seat is the most nuanced position. Depending on the order of play and the sum bid so far, you may be able to get away with a very weak nil. This can be very handy in a situation where opponent has bid very high, your partner has bid low, and there's no chance of setting them. Consider bidding that starts with opponents and is {them: nil, partner: 3, them: 7, you: nil}. If you bid 1 and everyone made their bids, the score would be 170-40 (plus bags). With a nil bid, that changes to 170-130 -- a considerable swing.
9. Near the end of a match, especially when the opponents have bid (or are likely to bid) enough points to win the match, these guidelines become much more fluid. Unlikely nil bids may be necessary to keep your team in the game! However, keep in mind that if either team is close to a bag penalty, a nil bid can make it more difficult for your partner to control the number of bags they take. If you must force your opponents to trigger the bag penalty to avoid them ending/winning the game, your nil may make it harder on your partner.

Thoughts about playing a nil bid
Note: this is from the bidder's perspective. (We could certainly add a section about how to cover or defend a nil bid, too...)

1. When leading from a nil, the usual strategy is to play a safe suit that you'd like partner to lead again. This works especially well if you have a singleton/doubleton suit, since later tricks will give you an opportunity to discard high cards from other suits. It can also work for long/safe suits (like the AKQJT742 example, above), since your partner will not usually need any hinting to play their high cards in other suits, but may be reticent to lead a mid-level card like an 8 or 9 unless you tell them it's ok.
2. When the sum bid of all other players is high (12 or more), and you have some long suits with winners and losers (like a suit with A432), consider leading from the riskiest suit first -- the suit you are most likely to get set in. (For example, a singleton 9 or 10.). If someone covers the trick, great, your nil is that much less risky. If you do get set, better to know this _early_ in the hand, so that you can change your strategy early to help partner to set the opponents' bid. (Note: if you do try to help partner, be aware of which variation you're playing -- there are some games where your tricks count towards your partners' bid, but usually they are just bags -- and make sure that you don't steal tricks from your partner and end up setting them!)
3. When you are able to follow suit in a trick, you should (almost) always discard the highest possible losing card. This gives your partner information about your hand and the distribution of the rest of the cards among your opponents: if the Q is led and you follow suit with the 9, your partner will assume you do not hold the J or T, although you may or may not hold the A or K. (If that same trick was trumped with a spade before it came to you, your partner will assume you do not hold the A or K, either.)
4. If a trick comes to you and you are void in the led suit, you should either play your highest-risk card and/or a card that communicates safety to your partner. For example, if you hold {AKQ65432 of clubs, 7 of diamonds, and 8632 of spades}, and hearts is led, the 7D might be the highest-risk card, since you cannot duck a lower lead in that suit. It might also be reasonable to consider the 7D "safe enough" and to play the 6C, because you are communicating to your partner that you're confident you can duck any lead below a 6 -- (there are only 5 other cards in that suit, and you hold 5432). This gives them the information they need to conserve their spades to cover your long spade suit.
5. Don't confuse the rank of a card with its risk -- if you hold T8642 of a suit, you are guaranteed to be able to duck any lead, so the ten is not risky at all. On the other hand, a singleton ten can be somewhat risky, and a QJT suit is extremely unlikely to make.

[D3R3CH0]

Thank you for the article, it has met my taste. Helps to perfect the bidding of a zero
and to prevent over-risky zeros that often result in a defeat and annoy the partner.
Maybe you'll unblock me sometime.

I have searched the internet a few times for such spades strategy suggestions, but with only little success so far.

I would also be like to know if there is a language in Spades that can be used to display preferences during a game round.

In the broadly played tournament version of Swiss Jass, for example,
if your partner starts with his strongest suit and will make a safe trick
and you're able to play another suit, you discard a card from the one suit you don't want to be played on.

Are there also such conventions existing in Spades?

[D3R3CH0]

Also, don't forget that games from the Whist family are played at real tables in the English-speaking world
(I assume that's still done) and I, as a Swiss, can't know conventions that are only passed on there.

However, now and then, in special situations, I also just like to do something pretty crazy
- having once made a zero with 5 Spades elsewhere is an experience in itself.

Also, when twelve or thirteen has been bid, like nine the opponents and three my partner,
and I haven't bid the zero last and we are significantly behind -
and I see the chance to play flexibly on set from the start,
e.g. with an A with four and a suit with only one card and two trumps,
then I already played on set and destruction of the zero right from the start,
because if the score is 360-180 and the choice is for 450:310 or 270-110,
then I estimate the change in the chance of still being able to win the game to be higher with the second variant.
But I do this less often now because it is also possible that the partner makes the set.

That's why I gave myself the name "Wildcard" elsewhere.

Also, because I consider persistence and a patient game and in my favour,
and if we were far behind, the opponent might have been lucky,
I often prefer to prolong the game, trusting my finesse and the hope for a stroke of card luck.
Or until the opponents make a mistake or someone has to leave the game because they had not planned enough time.
Of course without deliberating time delays between moves.

In the meantime, I have tried to adapt my game to the partners here, it always depends on the situation.

Mickalot, by the way, I have further formatted your article - if anyone is interested, please contact me.
Concerns line switching.



Greetings from Switzerland


D3R3CH0
The one who likes spectacles in playing cards.

[All7Pangaea]

Best strategy is don't try it if you're up against me. lol

[Teddy and Mort]

Thats a good strategy *


*moderator edit: post removed, penalty applied.