After 20 times playing, I am done with the BGA version

[CharlieReddog]

I'm not a stats person, but it strikes me that the probability of rolling the same number, on 2 D6, 3 times out of 4 rolls would be somewhat high. And yet in Catan we see it time and time again. Different numbers in different games, sure (probably down to random number seed), but you'll see these clusters happen. And it completely throws games. You might as well not reveal the numbers on the tiles till after people have placed their initial settlements since it very rarely occurs that there's anything like a random distribution of rolls IMO.

[Stroom]

Previous dice rolls DO NOT AFFECT the future rolls. So if the dice rolled 8 this turn, the next roll can still be 8. And the probability that this happens, is the same as before - 5/36. And the next turn and the next turn. And this is OK

[CharlieReddog]

that wasn't my point though was it...? What is the probability of 3 out of 4 rolls being the same?

[Stroom]

It does not matter what the probability is. As you roll, each roll is still independent from each other. It only evens out in the long run.

Similarly you could ask the same question about any sequence of dice rolls.

[CharlieReddog]

On the basis you've played ONE game of catan on this site and the fact you can't answer the question, I'll just ignore you from this point on I think.

[Stroom]

On the basis you've played ONE game of catan on this site and the fact you can't answer the question, I'll just ignore you from this point on I think.

Sigh... it varies based on the result. Probability of a 7 being rolled 1/6.. So it happening 4 times in a row is 1/6*6*6*6. Is it impossible? No. Similarly I could ask what is the chance of rolling 5 then 6 then 8 then 10... and that chance is pretty 4*5*5*4/36*36*36*36 which is pretty much the same. It shows nothing. Except your ignorance on the topic of randomness.

Rolling the same number 3 times in a row happens quite often in real life games as well. There is nothing so spooky about this. You just can't deal with randomness. So, Catan is not for you.

[silentProtest]

On the basis you've played ONE game of catan on this site and the fact you can't answer the question, I'll just ignore you from this point on I think.

Probably the right thing to do - I'll join that

@Romain I don't care about believe. there are easy enough ways to get way better factual basis - just wanted access to it, or rather general access, so anybody could check, if feeling inspired (chances are, it might be just good enough for just a game, like Meeplelowda said). and some of the games that were indications that the rolls are weird, I gathered in the report (prob couple dozen of such games before I started, to just post them, and about half a dozen, dozen after I stopped, are not there). Giving that info and bringing it to public attention is all I was willing to do - I probably will someday play around with the php RNG just for fun...

@Stroom hate to make it personal, but you are just attacking people now - learn reading, and I'll "learn" math

[Romain672]

@Romain I don't care about believe. there are easy enough ways to get way better factual basis - just wanted access to it, or rather general access, so anybody could check, if feeling inspired (chances are, it might be just good enough for just a game, like Meeplelowda said). and some of the games that were indications that the rolls are weird, I gathered in the report (prob couple dozen of such games before I started, to just post them, and about half a dozen, dozen after I stopped, are not there). Giving that info and bringing it to public attention is all I was willing to do - I probably will someday play around with the php RNG just for fun...

The thing is, everyone complain about rng generation everywhere.
So for us, it's expected that anyone will complaing about rng in populars games.
So when someone like you came and said that 'the rng is weird', it's hard to believe it, whatever your feelings are if you don't do something which look convincing. Which you don't since just gathering sample of games and telling this game has too much 5s don't do much, it's too vague, we don't know how many games you played since your last report, we don't know the amount of 5s in a row you got...

And another argument is that if the rng is broken, there is an high chance you could convince anyone with stats easily. But at the point where you will find at one moment like eight 5s in a row (which has a probability of happening of 1/4.8M after each roll if you doesn't count the first roll, which is weird for sure).
But I think you didn't. Why though? Why the game would give you many 5s in a row and at one moment just stop? Why if it's the case the game doesn't just increase the probability of rolling 5s just after, and continue to do so while you keep rolling 5s?

Even if you don't want to pass many hours in stats, just find me a single game, your best one where you roll many of Xs in a row. If you find anything above 1/10k for your games, or anything above 1/30k for games of others players (removing the first roll) that will be slightly weird.

Thanks for your answers though

[Stroom]

@Stroom hate to make it personal, but you are just attacking people now - learn reading, and I'll "learn" math

False. You just can't give any concrete evidence (Concrete sequences that keep repeating). Only that "the same number x times in a row". Which is all confirmation bias but instead of listening, you decide to cover your ears and repeat your mantra.

[Romain672]

Btw, here is what I did yesterday with silentProtest: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

I took all the games present on the bug report and reported by silentProtest. Then I took all the logs, separated the dice rolls, and regrouped them in the main page you see.
Then for each turn, I keeped the last three unique numbers rolled, and if the next roll is one of them, i display it in white.
And you can see the results, and see by yourself.

There is one blank line between each game to add comments on it if you want.
Feel free to pm me if you want I explain deeper.

(and my doc can be used to extract dices more easily, like to count the double in backgammon games, just ask me)